Gold / silver are about to make a big move

[ancona]

While I agree that these are merely buying opportunities, I am angry on a sort of fundamental level, where things are either right or they are wrong. i believe these derivatives contracts and re-re-rehypothecation of silver in investment vehicles to be entirely dishonest. I am just whining here, nothing serious......move along now.

[swissaustrian]

Aggressive short covering in silver into the CRIMEX close. Nothing at all in gold. These isolated silver moves have been becoming more common recently.

[swissaustrian]

The breakout which I was calling 4 weeks ago with gold at 1586 and silver at 27.25 (see op of this thread) is now definitely here.
Both gold and silver have taken out their major resistance levels at $1640 / $30.
A weekly close above these levels would be the icing on the cake.

Charts are as of yesterday:

Gold closed above it's 200dma yesterday for the first time since march, the 50 dma has started rising about 2 weeks ago.




Silver is fighting to get above it's 200 dma at 30.52 as I'm writing this. It didn't close above the 200dma since late February which was an outlier, the really consistent trading above the 200 dma goes back to October 2011.

[bushi]

wow, these charts at first look like the mothers of all consolidating triangle patterns, on few year's scale. Good man, thanks!

From my abysmal TA skills, it is said that the breakout from consolidating triangle paaterns is usually violent, and usually going the same direction, as before entering the pattern (that would tell us that in this case TA is on the same side as sanity and our beliefs here - strong move upwards coming) - is that true?

[swissaustrian]

From my abysmal TA skills, it is said that the breakout from consolidating triangle paaterns is usually violent, and usually going the same direction, as before entering the pattern (that would tell us that in this case TA is on the same side as sanity and our beliefs here - strong move upwards coming) - is that true?

Yes, that's what TA says. Once the direction of the breakout (up/down) is clear, things move very quickly. The bigger the launching pad (i.e. the lower part of the triangle), the more energy is out there for the breakout.
Combine this with the fact that there are massive shorts having to get out quickly, it really is a very explosive setup.

[swissaustrian]

Gold just bounced back from 1675 which was the opening gap for the July 2011 rally all the way to 1926. If it takes out 1675, the next target would be 1700.

Momentum traders are probably entering the market, too.

[swissaustrian]

Aaand silver closes CRIMEX trading right below the 200dma

Nothing to see here

[swissaustrian]

Gold closes right below 1670 nothing to see here either...

[benjamen]

It is odd that Cramer is bullish on gold...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer...3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

"We have a major rally going on in the precious metal right now, and many people don't understand the importance of that rally," he said. "If they did, they'd be more inclined to buy the stock market rather than sell it."

"Cramer added that gold is what investors buy when they think their currency is about to be debased, something that can be a positive force for the global economy."

"At the moment I think there's tremendous gold buying coming from all over the world precisely because of the race to debase currencies," he said.

[swissaustrian]

Right on time for the first setback of the rally comes Cramer.

[PMBug]

Any time Cramer is mentioned, it is obligatory to reference his total pwnage by Jon Stewart:

Exclusive - Jim Cramer Extended Interview Pt. 1 - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 03/12/09 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

Exclusive - Jim Cramer Extended Interview Pt. 1 - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 03/12/09 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

[JJSF]

Talk talk about gold going up..We know where it's going.. just keep accumulating...
Weekly chart here shows all ya need to know
http://mlatrader.com/?p=16

[69800]

One thing to watch though. According to Ed Steer who talked to Ted Butler Friday

quote

In total, the eight largest short holders are short 36.2% of the entire Comex futures market in gold. JPM et al

the raptors are very close to holding a record short position in gold.

"The last time the gold raptors held such a large net short position was February 28th...the day before LTRO-2 and the Leap Day Massacre." Let's see how it turns out this time.

[mmerlinn]

Gold just bounced back from 1675 which was the opening gap for the July 2011 rally all the way to 1926. If it takes out 1675, the next target would be 1700.

As I have several times said in the past, until 1675 is DECISIVELY taken out, we are still in a downtrend. We have hit 1675, and SO FAR, it has held. Will it hold next time? Time will tell.

When, not if, 1675 fails to hold, look for a retracement to the downside for a few days/weeks (super buying opportunity) before gold races for the moon.

Until then, sitting on the sidelines seems wise to me. It is still possible (not likely) that gold could test its recent lows around 1500 again before rocketing upwards.

Remember 2008. Look at the end of August in 2008, then 56 days later at what gold looked like. We could have a similar scenario again.

[swissaustrian]

As I have several times said in the past, until 1675 is DECISIVELY taken out, we are still in a downtrend. We have hit 1675, and SO FAR, it has held. Will it hold next time? Time will tell.

When, not if, 1675 fails to hold, look for a retracement to the downside for a few days/weeks (super buying opportunity) before gold races for the moon.

Until then, sitting on the sidelines seems wise to me. It is still possible (not likely) that gold could test its recent lows around 1500 again before rocketing upwards.

Remember 2008. Look at the end of August in 2008, then 56 days later at what gold looked like. We could have a similar scenario again.

Investor sentiment in gold is not the same as it was in 2008. There isn't nearly as much leverage in the market these days. So even if we'd get a stock market collapse, the plunge in gold shouldn't be as extreme as it was in 2008. The same applies to silver.

Here is Gene Arensberg's recent take on the big upmove in gold/silver with indepth analysis of investor sentiment:

Got Gold Report August 26 2012 - YouTube

Got Gold Report August 26 2012 - YouTube

[DSAbug]

Well.. to be honest.. Sentiment has improved a lot in the space on this last pop. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jackson hole disappoint and give us ANOTHER entry.

[swissaustrian]

Today's monster rally was clearly a short squeeze. However, it still means more than that. Gold took out the very important 1675 barrier and is about to close the week above it. That is major news. Silver's ultimate barrier is 32.5 which could fall within days.
The hui closed right below the major resistance at 460.

September 6th is going to be the next big test. The ecb is expected to lower rates and provide more details on it's bond purchasing plans.

Have a nice weekend and a nice holiday on monday (in the us).

[mmerlinn]

Gold and silver have both FINALLY broken out of their downtrends. Now it is just a matter of a pull back for the buying opportunity of a life time. No clue how far back the pullback will be, but it should be significant. Once that happens, the sky is the limit.

Anyone wanting to get on board should seriously think about buying some on every dip until there are no more dips lower than the last one. THEN HANG ON FOR THE RIDE OF YOUR LIFE.

At the outside, and totally unrealistic from my point of view, is a possible MAXIMUM 40% pull back from today's high for both gold and silver. Whether that happens or not is immaterial if one is buying on every dip lower than the last one.