It's Monday.....

[ancona]

....I wonder how the markets react to the downgrades last week. After all, won't a lot of funds have to provide a shit load of new collateral today? or will they change the rules and quietly allow the event to pass by seemingly unnoticed?

My bet is on the latter, because the Masters of the Universe wouldn't want to piss off the Brotherhood of Darkness, now would they? It doesn't really matter anyway, because of the shit in Iran gets out of hand, we might just all end up dark spots an the ground, surrounded by the smoking ruin of what used to be a country. Now that Russia has stepped up to the plate and declared that any US interference in the Gulf won't be tolerated, we now know that Russia will back her Iranian buddies if and when the shit hits the fan over there. Remember, Iran may not have much of a navy, and they may have just a tiny speck of a military when stood up side by side to the US force, but they have a whole shit load of sunburn missiles, which if used correctly, could send the John C. Stennis to a watery grave.

None of us want to see any of this come to fruition, but I fear it has gone on for far too long, and Iran will not back down to our pressure. They are already enriching to 20%, which means if they have figured out the whole problem with how to make the stuff go super critical, it is but a matter of time before they announce they have constructed the "Holy Bomb", as they are fond of calling it, and threated to use it on Israel. After that, all bets are off.

[ancona]

AAaaaaand.....right on time, Monday morning PM takedown. Sweet! These guys are like an open freaking book. They don't even try to hide it anymore. It looks like we might have a cover smash, in anticipation of some carnage this week. Gotta make that fiat look good, now don't we?

[dereksatkinson]

I see gold and silver up. I also see european markets up small.. Japan and China were down because they didn't get the benefit of hearing the rumors before their close.

[ancona]

I saw a mini slam on hte Kitco chart earlier, perhaps we will get a bounce, instead of a trounce today. We'll see.

[mmerlinn]

I posted this on another forum a few days ago:

If the US was going to be aggressive against Iran, the US should have done it YEARS ago when Iran was weaker instead of sending troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. The US was so afraid of Iran (and maybe it allies) then that they went and picked on weaker nations instead of taking Iran out up front and cleaning up the weaker nations later. {Not in original quote: This is the same strategy that caused Germany to lose both World Wars}.

Iran, and its professed allies, notably Russia and China, are so strong now that any attempt by the US from half a world away would be stopped in its tracks. The US is simply too far away to make a meaningful attack against Iran without Iran's allies coming to the rescue before the US could get there.

Attacking from Afghanistan is not feasible for several reasons.First, the US does not have enough troops there. More importantly Afghanistan is a landlocked nation surrounded by anti-US countries, notably the -STANS, Iran, and China. An attack by the US from Afghanistan would precipitate a blockade of the US supply lines to its troops in Afghanistan.

The news from Russia about US interference backs up this prior assessment.

I also posted this:

What could trigger WW3?

Iran and confederates closing Suez Canal/Red Sea, closing Hormuz Straights, and suspending oil exports.

That would effectively cut off a major portion of European imports (especially oil) and exports since Europe is the major benefactor being served. Other areas of the world would be impacted, but on a much lesser scale, being more of an inconvenience as opposed to a major pain.

In a scenario like that, what would you do if you were Europe? Your choices are to either be strangled or to convince Iran to lift the blockade. Which would you do? Die a slow death, or do whatever is necessary to relieve the pain? Since Iran will obviously never listen to reason, your choices are even more severely limited - die or fight.

Dying is not a viable choice. So the only other answer would be war. Sudden and total destruction of Iran and anyone else participating in the blockade

Should Iran and confederates, likely Egypt, Libya, and other nations by the Red Sea, blockade European commerce, look for Europe to retaliate with Blitzkrieg speed against the head of the Snake, Iran.

That is one scenario of what could trigger WWIII.

And I also posted this:

Germany is pulling the strings in Europe. They are really the ONLY power there now. Everyone else has to bow to their wishes, or get trampled. Witness Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy (The PIIGS), and recently the UK and France. Germany demands, and everyone capitulates.

Currently, Germany is the #1 maker of military arms on a PER CAPITA basis in the world. On a volume basis they are still #3, but probably not for long. Like Ludvig whatever-his-name-is has asked, "If they are not preparing for war, why are they building the armaments?"

So, what is Germany up to? Long term, same as they have been up to for over 3,000 years, conquer the world. Short term, set all the dominoes in place without anyone realizing what is happening. Then when the opportunity presents itself, SUDDENLY show her true colors to the detriment of anyone in her way.

Here are some of the dominoes. This does not mean that all of them will be used, just that the preparation is there.

1) German troops in Afghanistan on the Eastern flank of Iran.
2) German buildup and troops in Bahrain across from Iran in the Persian Gulf.
3) German military presence off Somalia and the entrance to the Red Sea.
4) German alliances with many moderate Arab states, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others on Iran's Western flank.
5) German control of Greece, and hence Cyprus, through military sales as a condition of bailout money.
6) German ownership of the largest private airport in the US, near Wilmington, Ohio.
7) German ownership of public waterworks serving much of the Northeast US, roughly 10% of the water supplies in the US.
8) German ownership of the largest truck makers in the US, notably Freightliner.
9) German ownership of Chrysler, historically the largest military supplier to the US government.
10) German air force training center on Holoman AFB near Alamagordo, New Mexico.
11) German Air Force Command Air Defense Center is located at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas.
12) Freiherr Karl Theodor von- und zu-Guttenberg, Germany's former defense minister lives in Connecticut and works for Center for Strategic and International Studies which gives him access to US military secrets.

Way too many more to list.

Note two things about this list. First, German presence surrounding Iran, making it possible to attack Iran BEFORE any of Iran's allies could do anything. Second, German presence in the US giving it an opportunity, if such an opportunity presented itself, to literally conquer the US.

Note particularly the blue highlighted comment. This could happen before the Russian Bear could even become awake.

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Well, mmerlinn, that was quite a read. Germany is baaaack! Thought we had solved that one OK did we? I remember seeing at Dulles Airport (DC's other airport, the one with international flights) a large German presence on buildings out there.

Your comment on them being arms manufacturers per capita was very interesting.

Moi? I do not see the Germans fighting anywhere serious, UNLESS it is your scenario about survival of Europe (read Germany) at stake. I doubt that they could take on Iran alone however. They would need Israeli and or US help IMO.

And to take over the United States? Well, they would have to get past 80,000,000 armed Americans hiding behind trees pickin' off Germans, like we did the Hessians in our Revolutionary War! And the Germans would have to GET HERE first...

Don't get me wrong though. If they decide to get militarily mighty, yes, sure they could get very strong. And maybe that IS a longer-term goal. But, now there are more actors heavily armed (China now...) such that even with a US-only collapse, there is no way they could conquer the world.

Conquer the world with trucks, yeah. Mercedes (the world's largest truck maker) became even stronger with the Freightliner purchase, as you point out. They already have MAN in trucks and I believe VW and Volvo (Sweden) share ownership of tough truck maker Scania.

[dereksatkinson]

I saw a mini slam on hte Kitco chart earlier, perhaps we will get a bounce, instead of a trounce today. We'll see.

Looks like you saw the asian open the evening before. worst i saw was down about 8 which was still above the comex close. i'm showing gold up in the 1654s right now...

I think we should be ready for a move up around 57 on GDX and then a pullback. We definitely need a pullback or consolidation.

[mmerlinn]

And to take over the United States? Well, they would have to get past 80,000,000 armed Americans hiding behind trees pickin' off Germans, like we did the Hessians in our Revolutionary War! And the Germans would have to GET HERE first...

You are assuming that they would be stupid enough to take on 80 million armed Americans. The scenario completely changes if at some time in the future OUR GOVERNMENT CONFISCATES THOSE WEAPONS, which they have been slowly but surely inching towards for decades.

As far as getting here first, that is no problem. Just come in through Mexico. During WWII the Germans were working with Mexico to eventually bring troops into the U.S. through Mexico. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that there currently are various agreements with Mexico that could allow them to do it now. With possibly as many as 20 million illegals here now, in a crunch there could suddenly be an army of several millions already in place throughout the U.S.

They could also come in thru the Wilmington, Ohio airport that they own. When DHL operated out of that airport, Bush was pushing for the Germans to handle customs for DHL rather than have U.S. Customs Agents at the airport. If that actually came to fruition, then bringing in troops and munitions via that airport would be a no-brainer since the airport would essentially be sovereign German territory with NO U.S. oversight at all.

There are already agreements in place allowing the Germans to fly in any American airspace as if they were Americans, essentially without any oversight by U.S. officials. And many times in recent years, the German air force was patrolling our Eastern coast (defending our coast) because the U.S. did not have enough planes since so many planes were sent overseas to war zones.

I don't know the current figures, but at one time there were supposed to be 600 German Air Force personnel stationed at Holoman AFB and about 60 Tornado jets. Holoman is at most 3 hours away from any major Continental U.S. city. I have no idea how many are at Ft Bliss, 80 miles south of Holoman. And Ft Bliss is less than 10 miles from Mexico. It does not take much thought to develop a plausible scenario where, with the help of Mexico, nukes and personnel could be brought in to Holoman, then fanned out to all major cities of the U.S. via the Tornado jets. And, yes, Germany does not have nukes. But NATO does have about 200 courtesy of the U.S. What if some future POTUS decided to abandon NATO and deed the nukes to Europe?

Negatives, negatives, negatives. I just don't like what I see happening.

[dontdeBasemebro]

You are assuming that they would be stupid enough to take on 80 million armed Americans. The scenario completely changes if at some time in the future OUR GOVERNMENT CONFISCATES THOSE WEAPONS, which they have been slowly but surely inching towards for decades.

Since we're talking about starting hypothetical future wars, this would be a likely trigger of US Civil War 2. There are stats out there that put 88.8 guns per 100 Americans, making us the most heavily armed populace in the world (). These are privately owned guns, not counting the most heavily armed military in the world.

As far as getting here first, that is no problem. Just come in through Mexico. During WWII the Germans were working with Mexico to eventually bring troops into the U.S. through Mexico. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that there currently are various agreements with Mexico that could allow them to do it now. With possibly as many as 20 million illegals here now, in a crunch there could suddenly be an army of several millions already in place throughout the U.S.

I've heard that as well, probably from some History Channel show on WWII. Do you mean Germany recruiting illegals to fight for them or sneaking in a few million Germans?

They could also come in thru the Wilmington, Ohio airport that they own. When DHL operated out of that airport, Bush was pushing for the Germans to handle customs for DHL rather than have U.S. Customs Agents at the airport. If that actually came to fruition, then bringing in troops and munitions via that airport would be a no-brainer since the airport would essentially be sovereign German territory with NO U.S. oversight at all.

Maybe so, but that sovereign German territory would be surrounded by the US, not so great strategically.

There are already agreements in place allowing the Germans to fly in any American airspace as if they were Americans, essentially without any oversight by U.S. officials. And many times in recent years, the German air force was patrolling our Eastern coast (defending our coast) because the U.S. did not have enough planes since so many planes were sent overseas to war zones.

And some say that having our military protecting our borders rather than Afghanistan's/Iraq's/countless3rdworldcountries would somehow make us less safe...

I don't know the current figures, but at one time there were supposed to be 600 German Air Force personnel stationed at Holoman AFB and about 60 Tornado jets. Holoman is at most 3 hours away from any major Continental U.S. city. I have no idea how many are at Ft Bliss, 80 miles south of Holoman. And Ft Bliss is less than 10 miles from Mexico. It does not take much thought to develop a plausible scenario where, with the help of Mexico, nukes and personnel could be brought in to Holoman, then fanned out to all major cities of the U.S. via the Tornado jets. And, yes, Germany does not have nukes. But NATO does have about 200 courtesy of the U.S. What if some future POTUS decided to abandon NATO and deed the nukes to Europe?

Negatives, negatives, negatives. I just don't like what I see happening.

Even if we left NATO/UN (which would be a good thing), I don't know if we would actually deed them the nukes, we might take them back in some fasion.

Interesting thought experiment, but I don't think that Germany has the ability to take over any significant countries that it does not share a border with nor do I think they want to. Despite the best economy in Europe, Germany may be weaker than percieved since they are surrounded by terrible economies. And, I just don't think they are dumb enough to try invading other countries as Iran would be a challange for anyone, and you would have to be insane to invade the US. Gaining power economically and financially, however, is a completely different issue.

[ancona]

I think the only country that could be co-opted in to allowing a foreign nation to amass soldiers on our border would be Mexico. They are already losing the war with narcotrafficantes, and those guys are just ruthless and greedy enough to help out China or some other aggressor. However, if that was happenning, we would be doing aerial bombardment of all border cities in very short order. America really is quite a difficult target. I do not believe a conventional war could be waged against us by anyone other than Canada or Mexico.

[DCFusor]

Yeah, but - no way a reasonable army and arms get into Mexico without it taking time and us knowing all about it.

I know plenty of people who'd only turn in "some" guns if they were confiscated, even by force. Not all mine live in the gun safe. Not even all the parts I have are assembled into guns.

I just don't see that whole scenario in the foreseeable future. The only way we get occupied is by direct abdication by our government, more or less without violence, which I see as pretty unlikely. If we had a civil war here, I could then see others getting involved, assuming our military doesn't just join one side and end it real quick - which of course they could. I don't think internet tough guys, even if you own full auto weapons - are going to be much of a match for a drone - or an A-10 that can turn your whole "compound" into lava in one pass.

If there are any wars near-term, I'd bet Germany is on the same side as we, given the psychology involved, unless they are intra-Eurozone, in which case I think we'd be pretty tempted to sit it out.

[dontdeBasemebro]

If there are any wars near-term, I'd bet Germany is on the same side as we, given the psychology involved, unless they are intra-Eurozone, in which case I think we'd be pretty tempted to sit it out.

I'd certainly hope so as European wars have been our undoing.

[DoChenRollingBearing]

@ DCFusor,

Yes only some guns being turned in if they try confiscation. A big fat + 1 for remark about parts...

Same with gold, I have read that FDR only got about 10% of it.Turn enough in so that it "looks like" you turned it all in...

[bushi]

Despite the best economy in Europe, Germany may be weaker than percieved since they are surrounded by terrible economies. ..

Good point, although... IMHO, today there are NO strong economies. In that, every single one economy's backbone, is fraudulent fiat monetary policy, requiring money to be borrowed into existence, as an interest bearing debt. Pay close attention to this:

• because of that, the only way to be net positive as an economy, is to consume part of some other economy's monetary supply, to payback your outstanding debts plus interest (interest has never been borrowed into existence, such a shame - only capital was! On a side note, I think that in court of law, "impossible" contracts can be voided very quickly and by default, so basically, I think there would be no need to ever pay back any of the interest on every $$$ that has been ever "created" out of thin air by Feds. What a relief! Class action lawsuit against the Fed, anyone? )
• to grab this "other economy's" monetary supply, you have to: wage war against them & submit them, or, be EXPORT net positive,
• you can only EXPORT net positive, if other countries can afford to be IMPORT net positive. This is coming to a short and abrupt stop in the near future, IMHO, with all fiat monetary systems racing to the bottom in "printing" electronic/paper money, in an effort to make particular currency attractive on this global hamster cage of being a "net positive" exporter.
• other, weaker economies are also quickly running out of steam in this equation. Bar US, who can (could...) print their way out... But obviously, you can only destroy free market/print your money for so long. If it ever worked, we would be very wealthy living in our post communist countries, and they would not be post-communist, because only the (relative) poverty of our countries, together with shortages of EVERYTHING in the markets that were meant to be "centrally planned", pushed people to overthrow their regimes.
• also, another thing: to grow your economy (even hypothetically), you still NEED new money supply. Where all that new money required to expand GDPs is coming from, ye ask? That's right, it will be agin borrowed into existence, out of thin air

This is a no-go, by and large, and no country is immune to it. Short to mid term (I believe, that today it is already very short, rather than mid-term), the strongest economies will keep consuming weaker ones, especially these incapable of reacting with devaluation of their local currency/lacking the political will to default (Europe: PIIGS and their respective bailouts, more to come*) on both sovereign, AND for whatever funny reason, even corporational debt (govt bailouts for failed corps/industries).

Both ze Germans, and Chinese economies are net positive exporters. They depend on other economies being able to consume their production, thus providing them with surplus money they can spent on servicing their debts. That, and THAT ONLY, is why their economies look "relatively wonderful", comparing to others. If for whatever reasons that external consumption stops, it is over also for them. The music just stops, and the Ponzi scheme unveils.

If you look at the global picture, there is no way out, until we reform the monetary/banking system (borrowing money into existence by CBs, and fractional reserve banking - even MORE borrowing money into existence). True, according to the saying: "before fat one became skinny, skinny one will starve", this applies to economies very well, but it is all just a matter of time, and NO austerity measures will make a dent and provide solution, as long as we will be borrowing our money into existence (although, I am all for the small government, don't get me wrong, I've seen and experienced first hand how bad it is when govts are getting big)

regards,

*just off the press: rumors that Greece is already on their way out of Eurozone (good for them):
http://www.examiner.com/internationa...f-the-eurozone

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Very good post, bushi, + 1! I learned that Germany is dependent on bad customers for its economic health, thanks. Can learn something every day.

Nice humorous end to that link: f-the-eurozone, LOL.

[DCFusor]

I don't understand sweating the Germans these days. I have some friends there, and it's not in their nature to do things like war these days. They have this green party thing kicking around (remember the nuke issues, both our weapons we wanted to station there and now the power plants?), and shame over WWII going full blast that makes our political correctness seem like amateur hour. It's about the only place on earth you can go to jail for just owning Nazi paraphernalia.

I have to call BS on "wars in Europe are our undoing" Check history before saying things like that - they are the only real wars we've nominally "won", last century or this. Probably because they were over what's "right" instead of for oil or plunder. We kicked the Germans twice, IIRC, and kicked them so hard last time it's only recently they got their own country back in one piece. Doh!

Lessee - WWI, europe - we win, costly but we won.
WWII - won that one too. And Japan and Italy on top.

Korea - lost it. N Korea still a pain.
Bay of pigs? Cuban missle crisis?
Vietnam - false flag, lost that too, and bad. Don't let the bullets hit you on the butt on the way out!
Bosnia-serbia-croatia (note, Yurp or close by) - won that.
Grenada...well that wasn't really a war, right?
Somalia - Blackhawk down anyone?
Iraq - well, I think we actually lost that, but time will tell
Afghanistan - lost that, are losing it, and will keep losing it as long as we are there. When we leave, the Chinese will own it and its resources. And they won't even need many bullets, they'd rather sell copper and RE's than poppies.

Libya - well, we got a different bunch of clowns running that now, hard to tell. Nato kicked some butt - but we lost all those weapons and gold, hmmm, wonder where they turn up?

We didn't fight Egypt - but we now have a military dictatorship instead of Mubarek, who at least was nice to us and to Israel.
Did we win, long term, the war of 1812 or is Cuba still unfriendly now?
Did we win in Nicaragua?

No - these little countries who do guerrilla/asymmetric warfare kick our butts time and time again - we haven't won one of them yet.

Hell, did we win the Alamo? The southern half of the US now speaks Spanish.

No, the European wars are the only ones we can make a credible claim to having won. All the others, there are serious doubts about, or it sure doesn't look real good (Iraq going back to their old ways - maybe with a new friend, Iran).

The Germans, as part of NATO have actually been teaching us a lot - they have different and good takes on things like tank and sniper deployment - the one bad thing about Ron Paul is he doesn't understand how much we benefit cross training with people like that. Not that a mere president could actually close all our overseas bases - Eisenhower was right - we've lost control of the MIC, a long way back.

Remember the crap around the tanker bid - Northrup gives a real proposal, Boeing doesn't - just shines it on, assuming they're a lock. When they don't get the job, they just (somehow) managed to get a re bid, and even though their second bid was as much of a joke as their first (and for higher money than NG) - they get it on try two? What more evidence of crony capitalism do you need to see? That wasn't little money, NG won the first bid with a superior proposal and plan for lower money, but not any more.

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Nice post DCFusor, three thoughts:

1) Yurp, gotta love it, I will work that one into conversations down here (as I know some Yopeens)

2) I agree re Germany. Yes, it's a serious country. But, there seems to NO APPETITE among any Germans I know (or those whom I met over there) for war. Interesting comment about how we learn from their military too. (I am reading American Sniper, a brand new book, so far so good)

3) Southern Half of the USA speaking Español. That would be known as "La Reconquista". Well underway in California...

[DCFusor]

And Japan won Hawaii...they own it now in fee simple, no war required. It's all going down at a different level than projectile weapons these days. That stuff is just for the 'natives'. I really doubt we ever get into a shooting war with China, Russia (is there any other worthy adversary for a conventional military?) except the old cold war way - by proxy. Even that is becoming impractical.

China will win Afghanistan the same way - they'll just buy it outright for the rough equal of beads blankets and booze from the natives who don't know any better. We'd have done better in both ME wars just dropping Buicks on them...When you work out what we spent (not counting lives on both sides) - it works out to a princely sum for every person in that country - we could simply have bought them.

As Kyle Bass points out, with the world at 335% debt to GDP ratio (summed over the whole planet) - expensive stuff like war isn't a great idea, but they might do it anyway to distract us.
As he also points out in a vid I'm watching now - Germany has 88% debt-gdp ratio now and hasn't recapped their banks yet. There are no creditor nations in the EU at all.

I got the Yurp joke from Glenn Zediker (a gun book about accurate AR 15's). He was talking about high priced brass from Yurp being no better; he was right, too, mostly, it's the cheap brass from Yurp that's better, the S&B, not the Norma!

John Plaster's "the ultimate sniper" is "the book" on all that kind of thing - ask any real sniper. That and David Tubb's "high power rifle" are all you need to know about shooting long guns. Late editions of Plaster even have pix and stories from Iraq and Afghanistan. Lots of good survival stuff and woodcraft there too, not just guns and shooting. He wrote some good stuff about his time in SOG in 'Nam too - when he was doing the stuff our government was denying we were doing. Some of it is very funny.

[dontdeBasemebro]

DCF, I said the European wars have been our undoing, not because the other wars were less harmful for us, but because the establishment of the MIC, the massive accumulation of debt, and the general expansion of government control of individuals - from the draft to rationing goods to Japanese internment. We may have one those 2 wars, but in the end we lose.

[DCFusor]

That's perhaps a valid argument - those were the big ones and size matters more than location maybe. I think WWII put us well ahead - we were the only nation not bombed back to the stone age and with full industrial capacity all tuned up at the end. But we squandered that.

In other words, it may not have been the war per se.