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Old 04-13-2012, 07:28 AM   #1
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Snidely Analysis of trading data on April 4th smash

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Old 04-13-2012, 08:36 AM   #2
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Non-profit selling at it's best.
If somebody wanted to unload stuff quietly without causing panic selling, he'd split his orders up...
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Old 04-13-2012, 12:12 PM   #3
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This is exactly the type of nonsense the CFTC is supposed to question with forcel. Just like the last silver drive by, when someone dumps a half a years total world output of silver, that is simply bullshit, yet the CFTC stands by like a fat, neutered, blind dog. They never even leave the damn porch.
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Old 04-19-2012, 08:19 AM   #4
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April 4th was just one instance of a now weekly event...
Quote :
Over the past four weeks, the prices of gold and silver have experienced a major decline once each week. Last week, the suppression occurred on Friday, April 13 during the last 15 minutes of COMEX trading, between 1:15 and 1:30.

How is it possible to identify this event as a manipulation rather than just the actions of a free market? Unfortunately, that is becoming quite easy to detect. Significant price moves resulting from market developments rarely occur in a vacuum. If investors were worried about falling demand for commodities, you would see price declines in a number of industrial metals as well as precious metals. If investors perceive a greater likelihood of another round of quantitative easing, the value of the dollar would tend to drop as US stock markets rise with gold and silver prices.

Last Friday, there was no particular news that should have led to a major impact on gold and silver prices. There were no sympathetic moves in other markets in conjunction with the decline in the value of precious metals. So, what did happen?
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Old 04-19-2012, 04:37 PM   #5
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I'm so mixed on this manipulation thing. Not to say, that I don't believe that the market is manipulated, just that I figure the only people they can manipulate are long paper traders (especially on margin). I could care less about them. I understand that miners want to hedge by forward selling so we need a futures market of some sort, but people getting slaughtered who are just trading mean nothing to me. In fact, I wish they'd give up and leave the market to physical buyers.
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Old 04-19-2012, 07:00 PM   #6
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I'll expound my weird take here. Someone (forget who) on ZH propounded on the question of when/if to sell any physical. His take, which I agree with, is you don't.


You are accumulating for the time when it's the only recognized money worth having.
Then and only then - you use it and are one of the few who have any money, which makes it very valuable in buying power.

Therefore, it's not something you trade, it's something you acquire till that day.

Since you have to live meanwhile, of course, you do other things to put bread on the table - some have a day job. One possible day job is trading (and is mine). Some of what you trade might be PM's - and paper is closer to vig-free than physical, so...
I trade paper, in whatever form, on whatever underlying asset.

But that's an entirely separate activity, it's not fungible. I trade paper this and that, PMs are some of it - but maybe not most, as the higher beta in other things is more beneficial to that activity. I make money at this - lots! (Yay!) I then use some, but not all of that money, to buy more physical; the rest is that bread on the table, new cars, or prepping kinds of things and general lifestyle improvement, as after all, I'm living now, and it's not "that day" yet - but I can't get back the life I use up while waiting for that day, and this part ought to be nice too. In fact, it's hard to imagine that life will be all that hunky dory even with physical if the real bad shit happens. So, rather than ask if I'm having fun yet, the answer is YES. I'm not getting any younger.

Once something - paper or not - gets promoted to my "core" holdings, that's it, I don't trade it any more. That stuff is for later, when TSHTF. Therefore, I don't put every available dime into it, because I don't want to be in a place where I have to sell that stuff for my daily bread, ever - I am conservative about stacking, in other words, because I very conservatively want to hang onto that stack for when it's maxed out in value. So I have to keep some fiat type assets for now, because now is when that's friction free to do my daily business. To the extent I can grow those beyond my reasonably predictable and immediate needs, it goes into the core, it's like a ratchet - one way only.

Thus, the manipulation doesn't bother me one bit. It's entertaining to watch, in fact. When the manipulation is driving prices down, I might stack more, in the sense of a kind of "dollar cost averaging" into the core. I'm happy. When things drive the paper price up - I may sell some of my paper stuff - it's not my core. It might not even be paper PMs, unless you consider things like copper and oil "PMs" which indeed they might become in some sense some day.

But I think the key is keeping the two concepts separate here - core is core, daily income, no matter how derived, is that - even if it derives from paper trading of whatever.

Trying to "prep" by holding paper - stupid, IMO.
Trying to trade physical - also stupid, the vig is just too high by comparison, and it's too easy to get confused over your goals doing that.

Hopefully, that's clear. Do I qualify as a bug, then? I think so...but YMMV.
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