Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > PM Bug

Like Tree51Likes

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 05-16-2013, 04:00 AM   #1
Ground Beetle
 
mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Texan in Sweden
Posts: 549
Liked: 306 times
Beep beep beep

Back the truck up! PMs going down again.
bushi likes this.
__________________
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

H. L. Mencken

comparegoldandsilverprices.com
mike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2013, 06:06 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,029
Liked: 2449 times
We're gonna need a bigger truck.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2013, 06:10 AM   #3
Ground Beetle
 
mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Texan in Sweden
Posts: 549
Liked: 306 times
I got my eye on some maples.
__________________
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

H. L. Mencken

comparegoldandsilverprices.com
mike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2013, 08:29 AM   #4
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
...For what it is worth, the price of Au Krugs & Ag Filharmonics is at/below all time lows, since I have been paying attention (which would be roughly 1.5- 2yrs now), in my local/online shop.

I simply track my own purchases in the spreadsheet, along with the minimum price that I've ever noticed on their website. That's all in with their premiums, so doesn't necessarily trace spot price 100%

Krugs: Min. price: €1,135 Current price: €1,143
Ag Phils: Min. price €24.05 Current price: €23.85
PMBug likes this.
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2013, 08:49 AM   #5
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
For what it's worth #2. (please, experienced charters, laugh at me if I am talking nonsense), it kinda looks to me like double bottom pattern forming, with volume decreasing since the start of formation, we might be fast approaching the second bottom region right now. If someone feels adventurous, might dip a finger into the golden pot at around $1350 price, and if you want more confirmation, watch for gold bouncing back swiftly to $1475 levels from there, with volumes increasing as it approaches this confirmation level. Which, if the sharp drop marking the beginning of that (alleged, still in formation) pattern is anything to go by, would have to happen rather in one quick hurry, and would NOT give you too much time, to backup the truck - full speed approach and handbrake turn might be more appropriate there @1350 levels

That would be signalling trend reversal, if confirmed - now please, some of our experienced technicians, grade my homework, take it apart, and add what I've missed in one of my very first jabs at TA (if TA actually still matters anything in PMs, that is )
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton

Last edited by bushi; 05-16-2013 at 08:55 AM.
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2013, 06:23 PM   #6
Ground Beetle
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Here, There, and Everywhere
Posts: 633
Liked: 388 times
Bushi, a double bottom is entirely possible here. However with the sharp drop off of the cliff a few weeks ago the more likely scenario is that this consolidation period marks the halfway point of the drop. If that is correct, then look for the bottom to be around 1260 or so, then watch for a triple bottom to form. My best GUESS at this time is that we won't see the final bottom until late October, and the bottom could even be around 1150 or so.
bushi likes this.
__________________
If you keep doing what you are doing, You will keep getting what you are getting.
If you don't like what you are getting, You must change what you are doing.


http://mmerlinn.com

GOLD is the money of KINGS.
SILVER is the money of GENTLEMEN.
BARTER is the money of PEASANTS.
DEBT is the money of SLAVES.
- Norm Franz
mmerlinn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2013, 06:49 PM   #7
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
got you, thanks That also makes a lot of sense
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2013, 02:04 AM   #8
Ground Beetle
 
mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Texan in Sweden
Posts: 549
Liked: 306 times
You'll drive yourself crazy trying to predict dips. I think it's better to buy on a regular basis, whenever you can, and if the price feels fair at the time.

The bottom line is that banks hoard gold for a reason. They wouldn't do so if it was a worthless relic. In fact, banks are employing Gresham's law to the max.
PMBug likes this.
__________________
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

H. L. Mencken

comparegoldandsilverprices.com
mike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2013, 04:32 AM   #9
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
hey mike, I am not obsessed with picking the exact bottom, and I do believe, that in the long(er) term, it will not be that much significant, if your DCA price was 1.3k or 1.5k, in terms of fiat - only, I think about it in the following way: if I manage to keep my DCA costs 10% lower than doing this completely passively - well, I'll end up with 10% more metals in my stack. and that 10% difference, I hope, will be worth A LOT when the baloon goes up.


....and if it doesn't go up (seems impossible to me, but hey...) - it will be just prudent thing to do, and my children will inherit 10% bigger stack.
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2013, 06:33 AM   #10
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
hi guys,

OK so my personal "all time lows, since I kept track" , have been breached, and yet again, it seem to pay to listen to more experienced guys here - thanks mmerlin

BUT, another interesting observation:

IN the slaughter days during last few months, while spot prices were going down, and then back up - as you know already, I am keeping track of both my purchases (all in, including dealer's markup AND shipping costs - because this is the only price that matters to me, as this is the figure that goes out of my wallet), AND the minimum price, observed on the dealer's site.

So I've noticed an interesting thing - silver coins at the dealer's, have NEVER approached spot lows, and in fact, looking at the charts today, I thought "hell, shouldda been buying some more back then, it bounced back nicely already, and would have bought MUCH cheaper". Right? Well, NO. Went to a dealer site, and put today's figures into my spreadsheet. Results:

Krugs: yes, bounced back 4.19% from my tracked "dealer's all time lows", that's some quite noticeable difference
Austrian Philharmonics: nope, they are more or less flat, just slightly above the "dealer's all time lows" 1.58% bounce. Reason: silver philharmonics actually NEVER went down enough, to fully reflect the drop in the Ag spot price.

Moral of the story: There seem to be enough time, after violent moves down, to confirm these interim "bottoms", and buy on reversals, without having to make quick, risky moves, and without missing the bulk of the buying opportunity.

Cheers!
Unobtanium, ancona and benjamen like this.
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton

Last edited by bushi; 07-29-2013 at 09:21 AM.
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2013, 12:19 PM   #11
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Originally Posted by bushi View Post:
Moral of the story: There seem to be enough time, after violent moves down, to confirm these interim "bottoms", and buy on reversals, without having to make quick, risky moves, and without missing the bulk of the buying opportunity.
Bushi.. Don't expect there to be neon signs telling you the time is right to buy and that the lows are in. We are setup for an impulse move higher which may or may not happen in the short term. If it does, you will have missed your chance. Just like people who were waiting for $500 (50% drop) in 2008 missed their chance.

I've seen this play out before. Most people do not participate in the recovery following bull market corrections because they are sitting on their hands.
__________________
"A little more persistence, a little more effort, and what seemed hopeless failure may turn to glorious success.: - Elbert Hubbard
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2013, 12:33 PM   #12
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
yeah, I understand - I am not sitting, merely, I haven't missed that much of the opportunity, as the ticker reading would suggest - versus if I bought at "the lowest of the lows", or trying to catch a falling knife.
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2013, 09:30 AM   #13
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SA,TX
Posts: 134
Liked: 83 times
Considering we did peak 13% from the lowest low this year I would say picking bottoms (if you are good at it) is quite a feat!

-Q
__________________
"My suggestions and comments are for information purposes only!"
MasterQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 04:47 AM   #14
Predaceous stink bug
 
Potemkin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 220
Liked: 31 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
We're gonna need a bigger truck.
The truck is not the problem, we're gonna need more money to buy with!
Potemkin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 01:47 PM   #15
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
Originally Posted by MasterQ View Post:
Considering we did peak 13% from the lowest low this year I would say picking bottoms (if you are good at it) is quite a feat!

-Q
Tut,tut, masterQ - haven't you read my post? ;-) The actual PHYSICAL prices haven't gone even close to the lowest lows, and especially, for silver. Yes I agree with regards to gold, it would be a neat treat to get some at the year's low prices, but not a basement bargain, but silver - not significant move at all, and in comparison to spot price change - a joke.




Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
ancona likes this.
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 02:31 PM   #16
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
Bushi - Q,
My LCS has extremely high premiums on everything! As a matter of fact, junk is going for more than generic 1 oz bars right now, because he simply cannot get any. As far as "spot" is concerned, he just uses it for a starting point because that is what everyone has always done, not because it represents anything close to silver value. Guys like yourself and Q watch the charts because of paper you hold [I guess] but the real deal is significantly higher than the price of paper silver. I sure am glad my silver is real and not paper.
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 03:10 PM   #17
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SA,TX
Posts: 134
Liked: 83 times
Yes I was referring to trading in that post.

What little of paper I still have from trying to do a quick turnaround (lesson learned) I haven't bought since.

The sooner I can unload that shit the better.

It's been physical the whole way down my frirends.

-Q
ancona, bushi and Jay like this.
__________________
"My suggestions and comments are for information purposes only!"
MasterQ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 03:57 PM   #18
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
...my inventory of paper assets, of all kinds: $0.00 :-)




Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
ancona likes this.
__________________
“...the issue which has swept down the centuries and will have to be fought sooner or later is the People versus the Banks.
Lord Acton
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 05:44 PM   #19
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
My inventory of "paper assets" is as follows:

Toilet paper, 88 rolls 2-ply
Feminine paper stuff, 180 day supply
Paper plates, 5 X packs 250 ct.
Paper napkins, 7.5 packs X 1,000 ct.
Printer paper, 12 reams 8.5" x 11"
Fiat bills [paper] Plenty x well........plenty

;-)
rblong2us, bushi and Jay like this.
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2013, 07:44 PM   #20
Ground Beetle
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 501
Liked: 304 times
That feminine paper stuff is going to be worth more than gold if it turns out everything crashes. You might want to re-allocate....
ancona likes this.
Aubuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.