Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > PM Bug

Like Tree75Likes

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 08-10-2015, 09:09 AM   #141
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
It's been a long while since I paid attention to the Comex warehouse inventory.

Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
... Warehouse Inventory amounts to 7,569,585 oz ...
Warehouse inventory was 25,385,022 oz back on Jan 15, 2014 (see post above). It's now less than 1/3 of what it was a year and a half ago.

Was trying to find a chart of inventory stocks and I'm not finding any that corroborate Harvey's Jan 2014 figures. I found this one:



and these:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/inter...tfcodecom=GOLD

http://www.24hgold.com/english/inter...tfcodecom=GOLD
rblong2us likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2015, 03:25 PM   #142
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,885
Liked: 844 times
Don't see 25.4 mill oz on that chart Bug .....
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2015, 05:01 PM   #143
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'm not sure where the charts or Harvey are pulling their data from.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2015, 06:30 PM   #144
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,885
Liked: 844 times
probably why so few refer to Harvey these days .....
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2015, 09:02 AM   #145
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,329
Liked: 2018 times
I saw on ZH where JPM backstopped the Crimex with a ginormous pile of shiny at the end of the week to cover a bunch of orders, and it brought the ratio from somewhere north of 120 - 1 down to less than 80 - 1.
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2016, 06:53 PM   #146
Big-eyed bug
 
Unobtanium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 449
Liked: 343 times
OK folks, COMEX registered gold has dropped to an all time low of 73,795 oz.


PMBug and BigJim like this.
Unobtanium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2016, 08:14 AM   #147
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
There is so much FUD surrounding the significance of COMEX inventory numbers. I wish I had a firm grasp on what it really means.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2016, 08:37 AM   #148
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
FWIW:
Quote :
...
In just three days, the total Registered silver inventories at the COMEX fell from almost 30 Moz down to 23.1 Moz. Thus, COMEX Registered silver inventories are the lowest they have been in more than 15 years.
...
https://srsroccoreport.com/comex-reg...cord-leverage/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2016, 03:58 PM   #149
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,885
Liked: 844 times
so a 25% drop in three days

When will demand for delivery actually trigger a run ?

I guess they could go negative with the amount held and just ask those seeking delivery to wait their turn.
It doesn't need to be a big drama ........
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2016, 07:42 AM   #150
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
I've slowed my purchasing activities, so I'm not watching the premiums on physical as closely as I once did, but I suspect you will see stress start there.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2017, 08:41 AM   #151
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
I usually just gloss over reports related to COMEX these days, but this seems worth noting...
Quote :
... January is an off-month for deliveries at COMEX. However, the number of gold futures contracts that stood for delivery this month resembles an active delivery month. That is interesting because COMEX has always been primarily a paper based exchange. Physical delivery is the exception rather than the rule. Delivery has always been theoretically possible, but it has been rarely done. In January 2016, for example, the holders of only 172 COMEX futures contracts demanded physical gold. In comparison, by January 27, 2017, the holders of 1,254 COMEX futures contracts held them to maturity and demanded their gold! That is a whopping 729% increase yoy!

We’ll see what happens in February. There are already an unusually large number of February contracts remaining open on Friday, a day before the first notice day. Monday is the first notice day for the February delivery month, which has always been a major one. This month is shaping up to be mildly historic in size. The overall delivery size looks like it will be at least as big as December, 2016, even though December is normally the largest delivery month by far. One thing is clear. As of Monday morning, holders of matured futures contracts are going to have to put up or shut up. They must either deposit sufficient cash to pay for the gold in full, or face involuntary liquidation.

No matter how massive the delivery demand, there is always the possibility that dealers will try to attack prices early in the month. They often do this. I believe that the reason revolves around the desire to buy physical gold bullion, from mining companies and others, at a rock-bottom price. They will do everything they can to create a fake price so long as it doesn’t cost them too much. The trouble for them is that, this month, it may cost them more to do it than they save from the results.
...
http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017...ear-over-year/
rblong2us likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:43 AM   #152
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
Avery has posted an update:
Quote :
... As I reported last month, we saw a 729% increase in the demand for delivery of physical gold at COMEX during off-month of January 2017, year over year. This month (February) was a major delivery month, and there was another 230% increase in the delivery of physical gold bars. The huge increase in gross demand for actual physical gold bars is impressive. However, it is not the amount that was purchased but, rather, who was doing the buying that is the most important factor.

The biggest banks in the western world continued to be the biggest physical gold bar buyers during February. In many cases, their own customers are being called upon to deliver the bars to them. In total, about 18.66 metric tons worth of physical gold bars were delivered on COMEX in February. That compares to 7.99 tons delivered in February 2016. The net increase totals out to be 233% year over year, which is enormous.
...
Oddly, CME, Inc. was also a significant buyer. It has consistently been a significant gold bar purchaser throughout 2016. Like Goldman Sachs, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Scotia and others, it has been stocking up. The exchange operator didn’t buy many gold bars as a “too-big-to-fail” megabank, but its purchases were enormous, and way out of line from a historical perspective. Remember, the futures exchange operator is not a bank, a hedge fund or an independent investor. It has no obvious reason to buy physical gold bars — except one which we will discuss in a moment.

CME, Inc. bought about 1/3rd of a metric ton in 2016. This past month, it purchased another 62 kilograms. In comparison, it bought only 5 gold bars in all of 2015. The exchange is contractually liable on any default in delivery by clearing members. There hasn’t been any default yet. However, the fact that the company is now buying so many gold bars implies that it is preparing for that to happen. It seems to be planning on weathering a major supply disruption.
...
http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017...all-connected/
Unobtanium likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:45 PM   #153
Big-eyed bug
 
Unobtanium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 449
Liked: 343 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Avery has posted an update:

http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017...all-connected/
Thanks bug for the article. Reading this sent me down a rabbit hole to stumble on the article below. In essence (see graphs in article link):

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/08/the...-gold-deposit/


1) World mine production is trending down.

2) New mines are making only very small contributions to global gold production.

3) The number of years between new deposit discovery and production is growing (from about 5 years in 1985 to around 20 years now and 30 years predicted for discoveries in the next few years).

4) Major new gold discoveries are way down in the last 5 years despite heavy exploration spending.

5) Gold demand remains strong.


Folks, there is a supply crunch coming, and I think we are already seeing the beginning stages of it right now. It may take a few more years (or less?) for the biggest part of the crunch to hit, and I don't see how it can be avoided. The mining numbers just don't lie.
PMBug and rblong2us like this.

Last edited by Unobtanium; 03-06-2017 at 08:51 PM. Reason: spelling
Unobtanium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2017, 08:27 AM   #154
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
Nice find. Yeah, that's a subject that SRSRocco has broached a few times. As I understand it, mining companies have "inventories" of minable earth in different grades. They shift their operations from low grade earth to high grade earth depending upon the profitability of the operation. So, back around 2008-2009 or so, when PMs were flying on rocket boosters, they had switched to mining their low grade inventory. When prices crashed back down, they had to start switching back to using their high grade inventory and that's a very limited commodity. Exploration isn't finding much (if any) high grade deposits any more. So, (eventually) while they may still have some inventory of low grade earth available, it might not even be profitable to process it.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2017, 07:26 PM   #155
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,885
Liked: 844 times
Energy costs are a big factor in this calculation.

It might be that with oil at around $50 they can work lower grades at a profit and ensure the mine has a better chance of survival if energy costs spiral up or POG drops too far.

They seem to have learnt that a reasonable operating profit makes more sense than short term maximum profit.
A rather different approach than what we see in the oil extraction business .......

Im not setting myself up as any kind of expert here, just reading articles that turn up in Gold & Silver news and attempting to make sense of it all
PMBug likes this.
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 10:43 AM   #156
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 6,767
Liked: 2395 times
Quote :
...
Last week, I showed you how the CFTC’s “Commitments of Traders Report” corroborated the fact that the big bullion banks used the big sudden decline on July 3rd to massively reduce their long-standing legacy short positions. I predicted that the big decline on Friday, July 7th was going to be used to do more of the same. Now, we have the proof that this is exactly what happened.
...
The latest Commitment of Traders Report’s statistics were tabulated as of the close of trading July 11, 2017. As of that moment, the bullion banks had closed 2,823 platinum short contracts (141,150 troy ounces of platinum); 9,560 silver short contracts (47,800,000 troy ounces of silver) and 19,392 gold short contracts (1,939,200 troy ounces of gold.
...
... The numbers, with respect to all the precious metals, each represent a massive percentage of the total short position held by the banks. What makes it even more noteworthy is the fact that it comes on top of the massive percentage they closed last week!

The bottom line? The most knowledgeable people in the world must believe that precious metals prices are going to be rising fast and hard in the next few months. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be fleeing from short positions they’ve rolled over for years! ...
http://averybgoodman.com/myblog/2017...ort-positions/

Quote :
This email came from one of the global KWN readers (Kevin W.):
Quote :
COT Gold Swappers are (now) a record long at 43,721 contracts. They increased their net long(s) into 7/11, from 7/3, by 22,000, whereas open interest increased by only 18,000!

Going back to Jan. 2006, Swappers have been net long only 25 weeks out of 600 weeks. Even with the set up in December 2015 for the big 2016 run last year, Swappers only made it to 31,693 contracts net long. Higher prices will make the squid faced Swappers a lot of money.
...
http://kingworldnews.com/fascinating...e-gold-market/

Unobtanium likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2018, 03:58 PM   #157
Fly on the wall
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 32
Liked: 0 times
Interesting, I did not know about this. Is it better than investing and safeguarding on your own?
Christian is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
FYI re: Gold and Silver News PMBug Serious Business 13 11-14-2017 09:22 AM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.