Markets are going to VOLATILE as hell next week

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It looks like the FED is just extending the Twist program by buying up longer term Treasuries.

:popcorn:
 
miners are also doing ok:
ABX
40.12 -0.16 -0.40%

GG
38.50 -0.92 -2.33%

SLW
28.07 -0.60 -2.09%

NEM
49.79 -0.91 -1.79%
 
benjamen said:
It looks like the FED is just extending the Twist program by buying up longer term Treasuries.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Yes, but "prepared to take further action" [should the stock market drop more than 10% or so :cheers:

Oil is the big loser today
 
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Update on the miners:
Symbol Price Change % Chg
ABX
40.64 +0.36 +0.89%

GG
39.43 +0.01 +0.03%

SLW
28.65 -0.02 -0.07%

NEM
50.82 +0.12 +0.24%
 
swissaustrian said:
Early on next week, a perfect storm for volatility is once again in the making: :wave:

1. On sunday (6-17), Greece elects a new parliament. It's possible that the Communists (Syriza) win a majority and reject the bailout scheme. This would eventually lead to the GrExit. Markets would react with high volatility to this outcome on monday (6-18). But even if the pro-Baioult parties win, there'll be a spike in the Euro, once markets open on sunday evening (6 pm ET), probably dragging pms and stocks (futures) with it.

2. On monday and tuesday (6-18/19) G20 (shadow world economic government) "leaders" meet in Mexico. Depending on the outcome of the election in Greece and market reactions to it, they might announce some emergency measures (e.g. a new scheme involving non-European nations and the IMF, or capital controls of some kind). Regardless of the outcome in Greece they'll be discussing the rapid slowdown of the world economy and will probably publish some pathetic joint statement on their plans for growth. HFT algos will pick this up, creating volatility.

3. On tuesday and wednesday (6-19/20), the FED's FOMC meets. Many observers expect them to launch (or at least hint at) a new round of QE. Regardless of what happens, there'll be volatility on wednesday when they announce their decisions on 2:15 pm. If they don't do anything, markets will likely crash. pms will be espescially hit hard. If they announce a CTRL+P move pms should benefit the most. Tip: watch the front running in pms (and mining shares) BEFORE the announcement.

If you want to trade this information, you can either:

a) go long the VIX: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f9/its-time-go-long-vix-volatility-563/

or

b) start a silver volatility trade with options: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/how-trade-silver-volatility-using-options-343/


:popcorn:
Click to expand...

In the end, there was a lot of inaction taken by most parties involved:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/20/investing/stocks-markets/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

a) Greece elected the, kick the can down the road and suck more money out of Europe, boring party

b) G20 did a whole lot of nothing:
European leaders at the G-20 meeting pledged to "take all necessary policy measures to safeguard the integrity and stability"

c) The FED caused a bit of volitility on announcement day as always, but it also did nothing but kick the can down the road by extending the Twist and low interest rate programs
 
In April, the Fed saw 2012 GDP between 2.4-2.9% and unemployment of 7.8%-8/0%. The just released updated forecasts table has these two critical for the election campaign data points at 1.9%-2.4% for GDP but unemployment declining to 8.0%-8.2%. One thing is certain: whatever GDP and unemployment are at the end of 2012, they will not be whatever the perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts.
 
Asste performance since the announcement (12:30 pm ET until now):
pms (+ 1%)
Eurostoxx and Dax futures (+0.7%)
Dow (+0.3%)
EUR/USD (+0.2%)
DXY (unch)
brent oil (-0.5%)
 
And now get ready for Bensanity's press conference at 2:30 pm brought to you by the softball lamestream media.
 
...honestly, is anybody surprised?


1. Kicking the can down the road, more money printing, market manipulation etc., is the easiest, and statistically, least controversial thing to do (actually, it is being EXPECTED by majority of market players now), for people who's ONLY focus is to maintain their privileged position/get reelected. Read this again, to make sure you get this, because it is what it is, and from there, all other actions are coming. Understand the priorities of decision makers, to be able to foresight their actions, and benefit from that.

2. If you are in doubts if it can continue, because it conflicts with the common sense ('whaaa?'), long term economic prospects ('yeah, yeah...'), is immoral ('yawn...')), causes pain for great majority members of society ('...who cares?'), kills free markets and healthy competition ('....boooooring...'), consumes weaker economies one after another ('...is he finished yet?')- apparently, you haven't paid appropriate attention to #1, read it again! BTW, quotes in parentheses, is your average politician's thoughts, when confronted with the above.

3. The ONLY way they change their ways is.... no, actually, there is NO WAY they change their ways. THEY themselves need to be replaced. Until it happens (and I cannot see it happening any time soon - re: Greece, in much more dire straits, and sheeple were frightened into electing kick-the-can-down-the-road kickers), we will have more of the same. Trust me, we will, for as long as physically possible.

4. They will be either:
a) forced to take drastic actions, by a MASSIVE (I am not talking about Occupy stunts here) social unrest,
b) forced to take actions by markets (IMHO, markets should be forcing their will for a looooooooongt time now, alas, it doesn't seem that way, rather most participants are keen to get their bite of the cake)
c) the can hits the wall, probably in a few year's time (big things take time to fall). Chaos emerges, from previous inaction. Most probable scenario, IMHO - because of #1 above is the king, and all (in)actions stem from it.
 
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swissaustrian said:
Early on next week, a perfect storm for volatility is once again in the making: :wave:

If you want to trade this information, you can either:

a) go long the VIX: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f9/its-time-go-long-vix-volatility-563/

or

b) start a silver volatility trade with options: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/how-trade-silver-volatility-using-options-343/


:popcorn:
Click to expand...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
VIX has dropped from the low 19s to the high 16s since last friday...

If you want to make money, bet against swissaustrian :rotflmbo:
 
Back to the 19s.

Market is selling off hard today. Miners and gold too.

What's worse.. It's been PERSISTENT selling. No bounces. That, is not good.
 
dereksatkinson said:
Back to the 19s.

Market is selling off hard today. Miners and gold too.

What's worse.. It's been PERSISTENT selling. No bounces. That, is not good.
Click to expand...

VIX was over $21 at lunch time and settled around $20 today. I guess swissaustrian made a little bit of money if he went long VIX at the start of all of this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX
 
benjamen said:
VIX was over $21 at lunch time and settled around $20 today. I guess swissaustrian made a little bit of money if he went long VIX at the start of all of this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX
Click to expand...
I went long last week on monday at 18ish and sold on wednesday at 19.7 or so right when the fed made it's announcement at 12:30pm et
The silver volatility trade (1 call, 1 put) was much more profitable, though. I started at 29 and got stopped out the put at 27.1 today (with approximately 20x leverage using over the counter = custommized options). The realized gain on the put already made the whole trade profitable. The calls would also get a profit if silver makes it above 29.6 or so during the next three weeks.
 
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