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Old 10-25-2011, 02:36 PM   #1
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Platinum, Palladium, etc.

New member Bearing would be interested in pmbug's friends' views on Pt and Pd.

Disclosure: I have platinum and a tiny holding of palladium. In terms of $ value, GOLD is by far my largest PM holding, well over 50% of my PMs.

Pt is used as a catalyst (including diesel engines) and jewelry.

Pd is used as a catalyst as well, but not for the important diesel engine markets.

Platinum Eagles are VERY hard to find for me, except for numismatic proofs at APMEX.
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Old 10-25-2011, 02:59 PM   #2
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I've read that Plat is under priced. Banks are buying Plat see here

Btw, lurker on ZH. I find your posts there useful/thoughtful.
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Old 10-25-2011, 03:01 PM   #3
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JMO, but there doesn't seem to be quite the same market for physical platinum and palladium as there is for gold and silver. As long as the never hits the fan, and my local coin shop is buying and selling them, I would consider them for investment purposes. But for a hedge against catastrophe? Not so much.
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Old 10-26-2011, 10:43 AM   #4
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Being a newbie, I've found Tulving to be reliable... http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

But be ready to ante up as their minimum purchases are 10+ oz.
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Old 10-27-2011, 07:55 PM   #5
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I tend to shy away from the less common metals. Not that they won't hold their value, but I prefer the more recognizable items. I wouldn't mind having a little, but Au and Ag come first. Granted, I'm new at this so those seem safer to me.
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Old 10-28-2011, 05:50 AM   #6
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Quote :
A disconnect between developments in global financial markets and the real economy has occurred, according to David Brown – CEO of mining giant Impala Platinum. In a speech at the company's annual general meeting yesterday, Brown stated that he thought platinum’s current spot price of around $1,593 per troy ounce represented an undervaluation of the metal. He reached this conclusion after a recent visit to Japanese platinum and automobile traders to assess current sales activities. In the case of copper this view is shared by a growing number of market analysts. Mining giant Freeport-McMoRan has been forced to cut production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to strikes. Analysts are warning that this could result in supply shortages in the copper sector in the coming months.


Although he thinks that at its current price, platinum is clearly undervalued, Brown believes that platinum will be stuck in a trading range between $1,450 and $1,650 per troy ounce for the next two to three months. Gold's premium over platinum still amounts to around 10% after the sharp price correction in precious metals markets. The premium of one troy ounce of gold has never been as high in history, indicating growing tensions in financial and credit markets. Brown added that the debt crisis has led to investors preferring gold over platinum. However, the platinum price has upward potential following its correction phase, with Brown forecasting platinum to rise to $2,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2012. His forecast was not only supported by the continuing capital flight into the precious metals sector from investors concerned about inflation, but also based on better than expected business activities among platinum and automotive traders. The order books of most dealers are still filling up, meaning that the demand for platinum is rising. Similar statements were made by the world's third-largest platinum producer Lonmin in early October. According to Lonmin, the demand for platinum is picking up again and will continue to increase in the coming quarters. Platinum has yet to equal or exceed its pre-Lehman early 2008 price of over $2,000 per ounce.
...
More: http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...utor=Goldmoney

I'm not so sure that demand for new auto sales are going to continue to hold steady so I'm a bit more cautious about prospects for platinum with regards to industrial demand.
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Old 10-28-2011, 08:00 AM   #7
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If we get a public QE3 these kinds of metals will be good plays for 2-3 months+ but your best bet is with gold and silver IMO..
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Old 10-28-2011, 12:53 PM   #8
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Platinum is for optimists!

I read (probably at ZH) that platinum is for optimists!

Since I cannot predict the future (and if any of you have ever read any of my comments on my remarkably terrible results the few times I went speculating), I cannot say for sure that a CRASH will happen. It just seems so likely with our financial problems.

So, as I have reasonably good holdings of Au and Ag, I have diversified into platinum as well, with a tiny bit of palladium. DIVERSIFICATION is one of my many middle names...

If the world economy ever gets back on its feet, then Chinese and Indian demand for cars (and chemicals) will soar. That means Pt and Pd will soar in price as well. THIS is the case for Pt and Pd being for optimists, hey, you never know.
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Old 12-09-2011, 11:10 AM   #9
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HEY!

I would like to fish for new opinions re platinum and palladium!

Firstly, we have new members since I last posted.

Secondly, because platinum vs. gold has sunk to a new low recently.

My holdings of GOLD will always be much higher than the other PMs combined, but I wonder if there is additional value in diversifying more into these two. My Trail Guide FOFOA (and his other fans) do not much like the other PMs, believing that Au will be the one that blasts off (with considerable logic, that is my belief as well, but I do not see that as INEVITABLE).

I noted at kitco.com that RHODIUM is very low priced relative to the sometimes astronomical numbers we have seen in the past (it peaked at a majestic $10,000 / oz three (?) years ago). kitco also SELLS rhodium, in some kind of sealed container, to my knowledge they are the only convenient supplier of Rh for pikers like me...

Your thoughts on Pt, Pd and Rh would be much appreciated!
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Old 12-09-2011, 11:20 AM   #10
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Rhodium:
Historically rhodium has rarely been lower priced than gold. In fact, it had a long term correlation to gold prices which was not 1:1, but clearly visable. Especially during gold and silver bull markets (1970s, 2000s), it more or less followed the direction of the bigger PM markets. See here




here are some fundamentals:

- UBS is launching physically backed rhodium certificates next year, said to be 1 t (not confirmed). Global annual production is just 25 tonnes, so this market is ultra tight. The spike in 2008 was caused by RBS launching a certificate plus strikes in South African platinum mines.
- Once these miners experience strikes again - a question of when not if - watch rhodium go to the moon.
- The car industry is the primary user of rhodium (mainly catalysts). Maybe they´ll have two or three tough years tough years with low demand. But car purchasing in the BRICs is exploding. This is a long term trend.

You can buy rhodium coins here:
http://www.rhodiumcoin.com/
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Old 12-09-2011, 11:25 AM   #11
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AWESOME response swissaustrian, thanks mucho! Some nice stuff to study!
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Old 12-28-2011, 02:04 PM   #12
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Platinum also is nose-diving today. At some point, those of us who think that MAYBE "they" will work everything out OK (10% chance?), that then Pt may be a buy here at the high $1300s.

I AGREE that the overwhelming bulk of PMs ought to be in gold, and hold some silver too.

But, if we "Boomer Doomers" are wrong... Then Pt takes care of us! Until nano-technologies come along anyway...
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Old 12-28-2011, 02:09 PM   #13
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I just wish I could afford to buy platinum and platinum group metals. Revenues are so far off this year that there are to be NO bonuses. Boo
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Old 01-13-2012, 10:30 PM   #14
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I was considering purchasing a bit of platinum, given that the platinum:gold ratio is near all-time lows. However, I was floored by the high premiums for platinum as compared to gold:

Jan 13, 2012 prices:
Gold spot = $1641
Platinum spot = $1492

Apmex:
1 oz Gold Eagle: $1711 (= spot +70, or spot + 4.2%)
1 oz Platinum Eagle: $1771 (= spot + 279, or spot + 18.7%)

1 oz Pamp Suisse Gold Bar $1691 (= spot + 50, or spot + 3.0%)
1 oz Pamp Suisse Plat. Bar $1602 (= spot + 110, or spot + 7.4%)

Tulving:
Platinum bars available for as low as 3.3% above spot, BUT for > 10oz order.


The Platinum/Gold ratio is near all-time lows, but for a purchase of $5k or less, I am can't bring myself to swallow the high premiums for platinum. Thoughts anyone? Would anyone else pay high platinum premiums in hopes of platinum making a strong comeback in relation to gold?
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Old 01-14-2012, 07:58 AM   #15
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Goldmart has some (generic) platinum products with premiums more in line with gold's premiums.
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Old 01-14-2012, 08:12 PM   #16
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This discussion on different metals started making me think about silver. I have fairly equal weighting w/ slightly more gold. I just split my bets. I seem to go constantly back and forth about which one is better.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...mel080104.html

This Hommel wrote this article a while ago in 2004 and makes some good pts which most are still relevant today. How people like gold because it has more value therefore has more demand and therefore has more value. kinda circular logic.

But then these Rhodium and Platnium prices started to make me think. Is it possible that gold could go up dramaticly but the multiple to silver expands from 55 here? That obviously would be bad for silver.

Logically it does not make sense to me but if it was just based on pure rarity silver would not be 55 cheaper than gold now.

curious your thoughts here. Conceptually I feel the multiple should contract as more investment demand comes in but I guess anything can happen.
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Old 01-14-2012, 09:35 PM   #17
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escobar, I think that diversification among precious metals is a great idea. Your present holdings seem well balanced IMO. More oz of silver, but much more $-value in gold represents most of my PMs.

I have read a lot of viewpoints on whether gold is better or silver. I do not know silver well enough to back up the claims of many that we are running out of silver and that its price could reach parity (1:1) with gold (ZH-ers "tmosley" and "tekhneek" say so). That is certainly not my view.

FOFOA writes that silver will be left behind when gold blasts off to "$55,000". For several reasons, but his explanations are long and intricate. I believe him to be correct though. That we will have a serious one-time quantum jump in the price of PHYSICAL gold as the "paper gold market" burns... He makes a compelling case, but you have to put in the mental energy to read his long columns. I would start in October 2009 and read forward.

fofoa.blogspot.com

Re platinum and palladium, these metals have different uses and degrees of "moneyness". I own a fair amount of Pt, because that is the metal for optimists (hey I want to cover that base in case we are wrong about where the world is heading...). I say Pt is for optimists, because if China gets rocking & rolling again, they will likely use a lot of Pt to keep their air semi-clean. More car sales worldwide, more Pt used.
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Old 01-14-2012, 10:44 PM   #18
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thx ill take a look. I guess I do find the silver story compelling. Anectodally seems much easier to get people started buying a silver coin vs a gold coin because of cost. I feel like this has to play a roll. as more people catch on i think they will be attracted to silver because they feel they get more.

from a a purely value basis I see no way to explain why gold should be 55 times more expensive than silver. Both have a monetary history.hugo salinas is trying to introduce a silver coin to mexico.

i guess to make things simple the bet from here is the multiple will contract from 55x over the long term. guess time will tell. in general when assets rally the spread of similar assets tends to shrink not widen.
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Old 01-15-2012, 01:16 AM   #19
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Historically prices were fixed by governments when their economies were backed by gold/silver. This was why all the rules were changed, to benefit fiat in order to expand the economies faster than the reserve of gold/silver could be increased.

Here we are now. Knowing what we know, I agree with much of what is being said. People will buy what they can afford. Every case is unique. Several of us have seen a trend of physical silver slowly becoming a bit harder and harder to find. By and large, that must be due to the cost per ounce. If a true and known shortage on silver comes to pass, the premiums will increase as well. Bottom line, cost will increase, and our investments will appreciate.

Historically governments used gold to settle business between other sovereigns. The silver was everyday currency for the things we buy today. Some traditions are hard to break, and some never die. Regardless of where the ratio goes, I will continue to buy what I can with fiat until fiat is no longer.
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Old 01-15-2012, 04:05 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
If the world economy ever gets back on its feet, then Chinese and Indian demand for cars (and chemicals) will soar. That means Pt and Pd will soar in price as well. .
I just saw this article a few days ago related to why Deutsche Bank thinks that Pd will out perform gold, silver and platinum this year. I'm not sure if I'm on board with that (with the state of the economy, I was always under the impression Pd and Pt were for optimists as well) but the article makes several positive remarks about the demand in the chinese auto-industry. IMO It doesn't hurt to diversify even if it's only a small amount.

here's the link:

http://igoldprice.net/palladium-like...deutsche-bank/
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