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Old 12-06-2011, 11:22 AM   #1
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Exclamation PMs rising sharply - Iran war alert

I'm assuming this is the reason for the sudden sharp uptick in the metals:
Quote :
... YNet reports that Iran is "moving missiles to secret sites, Western officials tell British paper; earlier, Tehran residents reported to stockpile goods, fearing imminent strike. The commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards has ordered his forces to raise their operational readiness ahead of a possible war or strike on the country’s nuclear facilities, the Telegraph reported late Monday." The move is for now precautionary: "The British newspaper quoted Western intelligence sources as saying that Iran is repositioning ballistic missiles, explosives and troops into defensive positions, in order to offer a quick response in the case of an attack by Israel or the United States." ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-m...rces-war-alert
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Old 12-06-2011, 11:57 AM   #2
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I´ve followed the news on Iran and crude/gold prices over there at RonPaulForums for a while, might contain some useful info:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ing-IRAN-story
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Old 12-06-2011, 12:08 PM   #3
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Ah, I was wondering about this little spike over the past half hour or so. But, ZH and Drudge have been all over this for a few days... I´ll go take a look around and see if I come up with anything.

But, I am distracted by trying to write some SQL code on the OTHER computer down here (to show me sales of Japanese bearings ONLY over the past three years)... And surfing the ´Net...




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Old 12-06-2011, 01:14 PM   #4
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This shit is starting to get a little bit too real. a war in the ME is baaaad juju. Sure, commodities may spike, but at what price? This rhetoric needs to get calmed the hell down and right soon that. I'm reading commentary from some of the posters on a pro Israel site and they're advocating dropping nukes on Iran. Are these people really that stupid?
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:46 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
This shit is starting to get a little bit too real. a war in the ME is baaaad juju. Sure, commodities may spike, but at what price? This rhetoric needs to get calmed the hell down and right soon that. I'm reading commentary from some of the posters on a pro Israel site and they're advocating dropping nukes on Iran. Are these people really that stupid?
There is going to have to be a war.. I've pretty much come to accept that as a certainty. It's just a matter of where it's going to be fought...
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:53 PM   #6
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I see a four front war with Iran, Syria, the Iraqi border provinces and Israel. Hell, Pakistan and Afghanistan my just step in to help their "brothers" if Israel makes the first strike.
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Old 12-06-2011, 03:10 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
I see a four front war with Iran, Suria, Tthe Iraqi border provinces and Israel. Hell, Pakistan and Afghanistan my just step in to help their "brothers" if Israel makes the first strike.
We just need to make sure China and/or Russia isn't involved.. That would probably be enough for me to relocate elsewhere.
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Old 12-06-2011, 03:29 PM   #8
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I doubt they will sit on the sidelines while the West plunders Iran.
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Old 12-06-2011, 05:29 PM   #9
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I don´t really know if there will be a war or not. One thing I certainly would think is that there will be NO land war against Iran. We simply could not do it, and there would be horrific damage and casualties in such a land war.

Airstrikes on the Iranian nuke and missile facilities, sure that is very possible. Take out the their navy, possible as well. Take out their ONLY refinery (Esfahan), and Iranians WALK everywhere before long. No gasoline, no diesel.

My GUESS is that the USA would not start such a conflict. If Israel strikes, then who knows what will happen. Shut down the Straits of Hormuz? That might get the US involved should oil then go to $250 / barrel. Ships, planes and drones... No troops, except maybe Special Forces operations...

ANY war there would be very bad. But, I think we could prevent China and Russia from coming in (full bore anyway) by NOT attempting to occupy anything.

I really hope these nuts in Iran come to their senses, and that Israel does nothing stupid.
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Old 12-06-2011, 07:57 PM   #10
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I PM'd PMBug some interesting background on this one I can't publicly put out there just now - good people would get in trouble around that.

Let's hope we can find a non-war way out of this. Hopefully the PTB can find another compelling distraction.

DoChen, their nuke facilities, the ones we care about, are buried deeper than any conventional weapon can reach. We can at best bar the doors. At a very great cost.

This is a war that no one wins - it's more stark than most. Let's don't go there.
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Old 12-06-2011, 09:32 PM   #11
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Hi DCFusor. I read an article in ¨Popular Mechanics¨ some three years ago (?) about a simple kinetic weapon. No explosion needed!

We could take some shaped tungsten rods up into space (well could have via the Shuttle). Say maybe 10 - 20 tones each. And then just DROP them from 50 miles up (whatever) onto any facilities of interest deep underground in Iran. The article claimed that not only would the tungsten hold its shape on re-entry into the atmosphere, but that the kinetic energy released by those rods slamming into even solid rock very deep down would be tremendous. It would destroy things even quite deep (hundreds of feet down).

I of course have no way of intelligently commenting on that idea, other than the article said the Pentagon was looking at the idea.
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Old 12-07-2011, 07:41 AM   #12
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Gold is going bananas right now:

Eurozone stock markets experiencing heavy volatility
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Old 12-07-2011, 07:43 AM   #13
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Headlines crossing that ECB will loosen collateral for loan criteria.
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Old 12-07-2011, 08:05 AM   #14
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Brent and WTI are also outperforming stocks, not as massively as gold, though.
Anyway, given the DXY strength this is impressive.
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Old 12-07-2011, 08:08 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
Brent and WTI are also outperforming stocks, not as massively as gold, though.
Anyway, given the DXY strength this is impressive.
Pull up a daily chart and compare the action of UUP vs gold since october. People keep saying that gold trades inverse to the dollar right? Looks to me like both have been pretty strong.
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Old 12-07-2011, 08:14 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by dereksatkinson View Post:
Pull up a daily chart and compare the action of UUP vs gold since october. People keep saying that gold trades inverse to the dollar right? Looks to me like both have been pretty strong.
It´s not a 1:1 correlation, but since the bull market started in 2002/3 you can identify it. After 2008 it changed significantly, though. People in the hedge fund community started a long gold / short EURO trades which proved to be very successful. Another trade was long physical / short miners.
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Old 12-07-2011, 08:20 AM   #17
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The point i was trying to make was that gold can go up while the dollar goes up. We've seen that scenario play out many times in the past during BIG runs on gold.

The short the miners/ long the physical game is going to start being a losing trade. The spread chart has turned in favor of the miners and broken a nearly 1 year consolidation. So miners should start to outperform on the next leg. It's just a matter of when that leg finally happens.

I think the way the mining community is starting to respond is actually pretty smart. Most of the large miners are starting to increase their dividends and/or tie them to the price of gold. The way the juniors are going to get out of their rut is through mergers and acquisitions. JAG having multiple bids thrown at them and still trading 20% below the buy out price for example, shows how poor sentiment is. That will change and shorts will get creamed.
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Old 12-07-2011, 08:56 AM   #18
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DoChen, they did look at it - *I* was the advocate. If I wanted to go to Gitmo, I could name the other names - but I don't see the point in that, they were good honest people, just misguided. They ditched it favor of developing nuclear bunker-busters as pork to certain congressional districts. There is an article I'll try to find in Physics Today about it a few years back that makes the quite flawed and circular argument why a fragile nuclear warhead was suited for that task rather than a straight kinetic or K+HE kill approach (there are wrinkles on the latter that allow for multiple shock waves to converge on the underground facility - any miner who uses dynamite knows the trick). I shouldn't talk too much about this one, as that was one of the things I was supposed to keep secret from when I left work for the gov. But as it stands, we have no workable/usable standoff solution to their versions of Cheyenne mountain. I tried, and I lost the fight. "Wiser heads" prevailed.

Their argument was laughable and circular taken at face value. Since a nuke is pretty fragile and can't be used in a shock-based deep penetration weapon - it must be detonated before it gets bent up, you therefore need a nuke to have enough power to do the job! That things like TATB (a nifty conventional HE) don't have this problem was conveniently ignored. The kinetic kill was dissed as untested - as if nukes were tested. Once you get to a point in policy rationality is gone beyond hope. What good is a weapon you can't use? First-use doctrine says we can't start off with nukes. This was a game of brinksmanship also played out in NATO-Europe by declaring that if our weaker forces were overrun by the superior Soviet tank forces we'd have to nuke them - a MAD game.

If we were smart (oh well) we'd simply play them back the intransigence they've been rope-a-doping us with (their diplomats been caught laughing about how stupid we are on video tape). You know, demand conditions to come to the table, and if they agree, demand more - and so on, delay forever. That's one part of a coordinated plan.

The other part is already happening, but I doubt we were smart enough to do it on purpose. So, now they are going all defcon. This costs them serious money, and attention span. They can't keep it up forever.

A side benefit is that by moving all their missiles from known locations to secret ones, we find out where all the secret locations are - we have 24/7 space-based "technical means" observation of their entire country in place, and enough computers to make the analysis of what went where doable by a finite amount of human analysts. Bye-bye anything they thought they were keeping secret! Score one for us.

We should do nothing. Let them tire of this, and make them look stupid for wasting time and energy. Make it a psyop. It will discredit their leadership and of course, make their people even more unhappy with it. Then once they stand down, stimulate it again, and again, till we've got the "you're just crying wolf" meme firmly in place with the people who will chafe at the new limits on their prosperity and the waste of their time and energy.

Then strike, if we must.

Some people will say that takes too long. As if we hadn't already been taking too long since we lost our puppet-Shah - and with him, all our radio listening posts for Russian missile telemetry (I was in electronic warfare/SIGINT business at the time...). I think we still have time here, not forever, but a decent amount.

The true worry is what Ama-needsAshave-realbad will do as his grip on power continues to weaken - a wounded animal is more dangerous. He can make plenty of non nuclear troubles if he thinks that's going to help his case. He could get distracted by any number of things - trying to increase influence in Iraq comes to mind, or messing around with the situation in Syria. Our recent actions in Libya and elsewhere have handed him all the political ammo he needs to have a "demon" to "be strong" against, speaking of unintended consequences.

It's up to we big boys (who we could hope will act like adults) to get the fight between the children phrased so that first, they fight each other, not us, and second, no one gets too badly hurt in the schoolyard brawl that seems inevitable. We did manage to mostly stay out of Iran-Iraq - maybe we can pull that one off again.

Now, they are following the classic pattern of nervous leadership - demonize some other powerful party so that you can drive support to yourself as the "Strong leader needed to save the country".

This is always the first part of war preparedness but is also used in peacetime to cement power to a nervous leadership who is in danger of losing it. A recent example was the Bush-Putin dustup over us putting anti-missile bases in the old Sov Union. They claimed it was a threat to them, when anyone who knows the physics knows that you don't catch missiles in a stern-chase, and that these would only be good for ones from N Korea.

But it cemented Putin in power, and gave Bush a refreshed enemy to help him stay in power - they must have laughed their asses off over drinks about it, and in this case, no war was required to obtain their mutual goals. Until Bush got 9/11 and didn't need to play that game any more.
(But we still give Putin a case for himself over what we do with the world's reserve currency)

"Never let a good crisis go to waste" wasn't an idea invented by RahmE, you know, it's been around awhile.

This is how the game is played internationally, and by viewing through this lens, a lot of other things might be analyzed more sensibly. Like the old book "Games people play" it turns out that while they look irrational on the surface, the players are actually doing a fair job of getting to their unstated (and maybe not well understood by them) goals...Stated goals are almost always not the real ones - whether the speaker realizes it or not.

I think we can force themselves to spend into bankruptcy here, like we did with our mostly-fake "star wars" program and the Soviets. Reagan used it as an excuse to keep all the best tech teams funded and together, should we need them (it's been a problem, we forgot how to make those neat missles after we used them up in the first Iraq adventure), while flooding the Soviets with reports on things to worry about. Meanwhile we perfected a really-neat ground-based point defense for our silos, that didn't need to abrogate the anti-missile treaties. Essentially a huge shotgun that shot straight up from the silo location when a range-only doppler radar saw something incoming at speeds only attained by a missile. Just a 12 foot square bundle of one-shot .50 cal rifle tubes all fired at once. We managed to keep that completely secret until the final implementation, and Ronnie got to make that phone call - we got the drop on ya boys - and that was the end of the cold war. Only an actor (or consummate liar) could have pulled it off. Oops, was I supposed to reveal that? Bad thing about this business - you're not allowed to brag when you win, because then you can't use that trick again. You can only take crap for failing. Helps to have the enemy underestimate you. FWIW, that study was commissioned and funded by my boss at the time - Jimmy Carter. Reagan just ran with it. Jimmy loved to study things...but never had the balls to do them.

At any rate, that's the take of this old cold warrior who was there at one time, at the highest levels of intelligence (well, what passes for that in government), and policy making.

A common misunderstanding is that while we think of ourselves as adults, and individually might be - governments world-wide behave at best like hormone driven teenagers - "gimme what I want or I'll beat the snot out of you and take it anyway". Our so-called civilization hasn't reached past that yet, even though quite a few of the individuals have. Failing to recognize that one is an error in judgment not borne out by history.

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Old 12-07-2011, 09:01 AM   #19
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Something to laugh about:
the TEPIX (Teheran Stock Price Index) is up almost 30 % since January 2011. This isn´t really a surprise because it´s basicly a derivative of crude oil.
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Old 12-07-2011, 09:21 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
I PM'd PMBug some interesting background on this one I can't publicly put out there just now ...
Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
... I read an article in ¨Popular Mechanics¨ some three years ago (?) about a simple kinetic weapon. ...
Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
DoChen, they did look at it - *I* was the advocate. ...
I must say that when I read DCRB's post right after reading DCF's PM, I was beginning to wonder if DCF & DCRB were the same person playing an elaborate joke on me. I'll chalk this one up to the great minds think alike and new wave theories of harmonious convergence for attracting same to play (talk) in the same playground (pmbug).
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