PMs rising sharply - Iran war alert

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Thanks DCFusor and ancona for the comments re NatGas. I should run down and talk to Raul (our ¨Logistics Manager¨, LOL) about the performance and safety issues. Although I have not heard even ONE case of a NatGas powered car blowing up in an accident here.

AND, all of the vehicles (that I know of) are local transport. NONE go over the mountains, and the Andes are serious mountains. Maybe that energy efficiency business matters more in a heavily loaded truck going uphill...

And YES, there was a chicken-and-egg problem here in Lima when the Lima city .gov started to push NatGas. At one point when I was down on a visit (say, two years ago), there were only a handful of gas stations with NatGas, those lil ol Daewoo Ticos were lining up for blocks in some cases.

Again, thanks for the info. Now let me go track down Raul...
 
Looks like a fun project, that wood-gas car. I wonder though if just making an old steamer wouldn't be a little more versatile (any heat source).

Since I can and do store some fuel here (buried drum) - my fallback for most things might be my 200 mpg go-kart which is surprisingly useful around here. Tiresome on long trips, but fun to drive indeed. You just can't use up too much gasoline in that thing, and the basic platform is real amenable to other powertrains if they can be bolted on the back instead of the IC engine - I've thought about making an electric version. DoChen might want to look into importing those intro Peru or some other place where the regs on cars aren't so stiff. I did get a dispensation to drive it on roads here, but it was hard to do, and I'm not allowed to sell them as cars here.

Remember, if you have a solar farm, you've got energy. If you're not in the trucking business, range of 40 or so miles might be fine. I can do my full errand loop - to Blacksburg, Christiansburg, then back to Floyd with a lot of stops in my Volt, all electric. 3 decent sized towns in range on one trip - good enough, I hope. Right now, as I learn to drive that thing the way it likes, my range is actually going up every trip.

I'm interested in the steam thing for other reasons - these days you should be able to make a couple of pretty decent and cheap designs and again - any heat runs it, including solar-dynamic as NASA has done some work on for big solar installations.

I've been dreaming of a 3 cylinder, double action, 120 degree steam engine made from air-hydraulic cylinders - where the old boys had horsehide for piston rings, we have teflon and stainless steel, and those things are meant to run wet. Self starting and runnable over a very wide pressure envelope from whatever source of steam (And whatever working fluid, doesn't have to be water). Or about a 3 stage turbine, which gets you most of what there is from the input energy, and that could run over a truly wide range of supply volumes and pressures via multiple first stage input jets switched by pressure relief valves. Kind of take a page from those hobby steam railroader guys who make this sort of thing from scratch - and they're safe now that we know how to handle steam systems safely. I've got some good old books from back in the day that show how, and now we have better stuff to make it from.

I've been looking into that sort of thing as a possible product for 3rd world power generation...the idea is to make it real cheap, and as stupid-proof as possible. For that customer set, you make it so you can fix it with whatever is at hand - maybe the turbine blades are cast from melted beer cans - they don't last real long but in this instance, labor to repair is cheap.
That sort of thing. Keep the initial cost as low as possible. And be sure to make it safe even if some idiot overfires the boiler - that's where the turbine is good with the switchable jets.

We can thank Babcock and Wilcox for some real nice vanity books they've printed that show all the details of "Steam, it's generation and uses" - from coal to nuclear input. Before them, steam was very dangerous - killed a lot of people with explosions. Now, not so much. Those books have more arcane and real life useful knowledge than most would think could exist about water in various phases and how to handle it all, as well as how to burn things efficiently and get all the heat into something that can live a long time under the conditions. I should maybe start a thread on "books people should have if they have to rebuild a world" - because I'm a book lover, and by golly, I've got them!
 
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I will need some tiem to reply with something resembling a cogent response. You seem to have this on lockdown, but I fear that many others do not.

That said, what you say is absolutely relevant and those who prep should take heed. The shit WILL hit the fan, and those who are not prepared will be in terrible peril.
 
Nah, I ain't got it all locked down, I just had a heck of a head start, and tried to have fun with all this for the last three decades or so...I'm not "there", not hardly, but I have blazed a path to "partway there". Hopefully the info can save others some false starts and blind paths. Who says I'm cogent!

As you say, those who aren't getting ready are going to be in a world of hurt, and the sociological problem is that most won't even get started until it's getting bad - and now it's harder to do. A lot of this was easier to do when times were better - and I was younger.

Even if the other guys aren't posting to all this wild stuff at the moment, you betcha they're reading and learning...
 
Hey I got some feedback from Raul, Gonzalo and Mercy (she and her husband OWN a NatGas-only powered car).

1) They are economical, the fuel is cheaper than gasoline.

2) The cars are slow (can´t go real fast nor accelerate quickly).

3) There have been VERY FEW of them go up in flames in a wreck, and there are LOTS of accidents in Lima.

4) The chicken-and-egg problem was at its worst about two years ago, when there few gas stations.

5) I could not get a good answer re heavy trucks going up into the Andes...

6) Certain parts wear out faster, but it is still cheaper to run cars on NatGas (LNG / LPG, I am not sure which).
 
Well, a compressed gas line getting broken may not go up in flames, and if it did, it'd be dramatic, but over real quick and maybe less damaging than a gasoline fire - spread out more and maybe gone before a spark can ignite it.

Propane is more expensive here (even without the road tax you have to pay if they find out you're using it for transport) and the first to go up in price in a shortage, but only needs a couple hundred psi to liquefy.

You'll always have less power for the same displacement when the fuel takes up the space that could be oxidizer in the engine, but that might not be a super big deal in all cases. The real deal is that unlike gasoline, it's just not as available everywhere.

But yes, whether burning H or C - you get similar energy per O atom you can consume, so limiting the space for the air input limits the power per stroke. Hence the hot rod guys injecting liquid nitrous oxide for a power boost with more gasoline. Effectively makes the engine bigger.
 
I am going to guess that the exact gas is mostly methane (like most natural gas I believe), but I have not looked into that. About the only thing I do know is that it apparently does NOT have H2S (hydrogen sulfide -- REAL POISONOUS and corrosive (to steel) to boot). They pipe the stuff over the Andes from the Camisea field there in the jungles of SE Peru.

I´ll try to look into that now, my interest is piqued...

---

You mean there´s another use for nitrous oxide?

:p
 
Oil is up big time today on USD weakness and intensifying harsh rhetoric from both the Iranians and the US.
WTI is up 4 % at $ 103
Brent is up 4.6% at $ 112
Gold is also rebounding from it´s dip in late 2011: + 2.1 % at $ 1604


Here is what the always behind the curve mainstream media has to say about this today:
Iran Oil Tension Boosts Prices: The New Libya?
Oil prices surged nearly $4 per barrel on Tuesday morning on concerns about supply disruption ensuing from a possible confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Front month WTI crude prices reached a intraday high of nearly $103 a barrel. Technically, February WTI crude futures need to breakout past the most recent high of $103.37 for a drive to $104 and higher.
Brent crude oil prices remain in an upswing as well, hitting a session high of $111.58 per barrel, and a close above $109.59 signals an emerging bull run advance, according to technicians. For Brent crude, the next key level to watch is $112.70, the 200-day moving average.
Traders say Iran is the new Libya. Just as civil war in Libya caused crude oil prices to spike to near $115 a barrel in 2011, escalating tensions between the Iran and the West could cause oil prices to reach those levels again early this year. Iran is the world's fourth largest oil producer, with production at 4.245 million barrels daily in 2010, according to the 2011 BP Statistical Review.
Earlier on Tuesday, Iran's army chief warned the U.S. Navy not to return an aircraft carrier back to the Persian Gulf after it was removed due to Iran's naval exercises in the area. Iran's threat comes after it test fired missiles in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and the U.S. formalized extending sanctions on any entity dealing with the Iranian Central Bank. The euro-zone nations should decide by the end of the month whether to place an embargo on Iranian oil imports.
"Some of the rhetoric can at times be part of a PR show but it can quickly spin out of control," said Petromatrix energy analyst Olivier Jakob. "Iran asking a departing U.S. aircraft carrier not to return is almost forcing the US Navy to send it back to the Persian Gulf."
Iran has said it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, a major waterway that the EIA calls "the world's most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow of almost 17 million barrels in 2011."
Iran's currency is already feeling the pinch of a possible oil ban — with the rial falling 40 percent vs. the dollar in the past month.
"In this environment of increasing tensions and rhetoric, global asset managers are unlikely to give up their long exposure to oil ... at least until we can have a clearer idea as to what the Eurozone decides on an Iranian import ban and the Iranian reaction to the Eurozone decision," Jakob said.
He recommended buying the very back of the curve in Brent crude oil, buying December 2016 Brent at $90 in the current Iranian geopolitical environment.
Some traders said they're hedging Iranian risk to oil prices by buying "out of the money" calls. Call options from $110 to $130 have been trading, said Paramount Options president Ray Carbone, on concerns about Iran as well as possible strikes in Nigeria.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45857310
 
This Iran bullshit is just that: Bullshit.

They have neither the means nor the will to challenge a carrier group. Would they launch a few missiles at a carrier? Maybe. If they did, the aerial bombardment of each and every military site, air strip and aircraft hangar would make shock and awe take on a whole other meaning. anyone who thinks the U.S. would take a kick to the balls like that is sadly mistaken.

I am not a proponent of war.....never have been.....but the PTB are who they are, and since I'm not Emperor yet, they would make a rapid and decisive move to completely destroy all Iranian targets immediately. We could shut them down with three weeks of aerial bombardment and send them back to the stone age.

I pray that doesn't happen, because I don't want ten dollar gasoline any more than anyone else, but he possibility exists. in fact, that would be just the trigger mechanism to wipe out a few major banking centers, while the insiders reap a shit-load of profit by front running oil futures, while raking in hundreds of billions on the backs of those who cannot afford to play in their casino.
 
War drums..

War drums indeed. If Iran does not get off the podium and shut the hell up, they may just catch the sword of Damocles in the top of their collective heads.

We pray that cooler heads prevail here, but he military industrial complex is running scared since our "withdrawl" from Iraq, and need another war to boost profits. Those poor mercs need somewhere to go.
 
I thought imerdinnerjacket's strategy might be to gather the US forces together on the water and pop a small nuclear device above em with the resultant EMP knocking out all the systems. Dead in the water .......

No doubt the military planners are ahead of anything this simple ?
 
Ok. I've been long oil since 10-11-2011 when WTI was at $ 77.5 (now: $ 109).
It's time to put tight stops in.
Crude is technically overbought, the dollar is oversold, the Iran story is overhyped, the US is considering to release some oil out of the national reserves, and Saudi Arabia is increasing supply, everybody is screaming about high gas prices. Prepare for a pullback before this rally continues. I think the same applies to pms.

I've followed this story in more detail at Ron Paul Forums:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...et-to-soar-on-the-developing-IRAN-story/page8
 
Ok. I've been long oil since 10-11-2011 when WTI was at $ 77.5 (now: $ 109).
It's time to put tight stops in.
Crude is technically overbought, the dollar is oversold, the Iran story is overhyped, the US is considering to release some oil out of the national reserves, and Saudi Arabia is increasing supply, everybody is screaming about high gas prices. Prepare for a pullback before this rally continues. I think the same applies to pms.

I've followed this story in more detail at Ron Paul Forums:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...et-to-soar-on-the-developing-IRAN-story/page8

SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:wave::noevil::cheers:
 
Lot's of chatter on the net lately about Netanyahu being committed to war with Iran and possibly attacking before the US election (November). Drumbeats getting louder...
 
I'm not really sure what do believe..

I don't know if they are banging the war drums with Iran because they want to attack or if it is to divert attention away from the economy or the sovereign debt crisis..
 
I think Obama will do all he can to keep Israel from attacking Iran until after the November elections. The American people are starting to tire of the constant war-after-undeclared-war, and it will not help his re-election.
But after November ... all bets are off.
Unless Ron Paul gets in!
 
Paul isn't getting elected so the war can start at any time. It's much more likely IMO that this is a distraction away from the fiscal issues over in europe than anything else.
 
US Diesel prices are suprisingly determined by (North Sea) Brent and not by West Texas Intermediate
Picture%2041.jpg
 
It has been roughly three months now since I suggested protecting profits on oil longs on 2-24: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/pms-rising-sharply-iran-war-alert-292/index3.html#post4822 WTI oil was at $109 back then and guess what: I picked the top almost perfectly :D Now WTI is trading at $82.93 and is massively oversold. This is the first reason to buy (chart is as of yesterday)

258m0dz.png


The second reason to buy is Syria which is increasingly under pressure from the US and it's European cheerleaders This whole emerging massacre theme smells fishy to me, like Libya 2.0. The only foreign obstacle for a "peacekeeping misson" (read: war) is Russia and it seems that the US and it's allies are just going to ignore them and the UN security council for that matter and will impose a "no fly zone" (read: assisting regime change by radical islamist rebels) under the NATO banner. Another obstacle is the US election, but it seems that the people running US foreign policy aren't caring about it. This would push oil prices higher: Not because Syria is a large producer, but because it is close allies with Iran and geopolitical tensions woulb be increasing therefore.

The third reason to buy are renewed QE3 speculations, as demonstrated by today's spike in gold. If QE3 comes, WTI is also going to surge because the USD weakens.

Conclusion: watch out for WTI, I'm opening a paper long now.
 
Yeah it's pretty badly oversold but I'm not sure we wont see oil move in tandem with the SPY for a little bit longer. We really need to see divergences develop (Oil up, market down) just like we did for the natural gas pop. Eventually they will bottom these commodities and most likely it will be in June.
 
Iran's presstv reports a 20 billion USD investment in the Iranian oil industry by China.
That's a giant middle finger to the US and it's allies. The clever Chinese just waited until the Iranians were really desperate due to all the sanctions and then they picked up the bargains.

China to invest USD 20bn to develop two Iranian oil fields: Qasemi

Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi says China has agreed to invest USD20 billion in developing north and south Azadegan and Yadavaran oil fields which will finally produce 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

Speaking to reporters in a visit to the Petropars Company on Sunday, the oil minister said the agreement for developing Azadegan and Yadavaran oil fields has been reached after 10-15 years of negotiations with the Chinese side. He added that the Chinese side has started its activities by investing USD20 billion dollars in the oil fields.

“So far more than 20 drilling rigs have been installed in Azadegan and Yadavaran oil fields and plans have been made for the daily production of 700,000 bpd of crude oil [when development of both fields is complete],” Qasemi stated.

The minister said contracts have been signed for the development of 12 new oil fields in the past few months, adding, “Development of some fields, including Azar and Changouleh oil fields has also begun.”

Qasemi said necessary measures have been taken for the development of Darkhoein and Mansouri onshore oil fields as well as offshore fields such as Farzad A.

Yadavaran oil field is located in the southwestern Khuzestan Province bordering Iraq. The development project of the oil field is expected to be implemented in three phases. Upon the completion of all phases, some 300,000 barrels of oil are expected to be pumped out on a daily basis.

Azadegan oil field has one of the world’s largest oil deposits, with in-place oil reserves estimated at 42 billion barrels.

Iran holds the world's third-largest proven oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves.

The country's total in-place oil reserves have been estimated at more than 560 billion barrels, with about 140 billion barrels of extractable oil. Moreover, heavy and extra heavy varieties of crude oil account for roughly 70-100 billion barrels of the total reserves.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/07/08/249976/china-to-invest-usd-20-bn-in-iran-oil-fields/
 
Back on June 1st I decided to open a long wti trade (see above). WTI was trading at 83 then, it's at 95 now. It's close to overbought. The Syria situation plus the weakening dollar have pushed it higher. This might continue for a while but for me it's time to protect profits. I'm putting in a stop at 93.
 
Looking at the charts, right now I see 93.85 on ino.com for spot, so that's kind of a tight stop...but I agree on the need for one at this point.
 
Yes, I'm trading a call option on the february 13 future price which stands at 95.5, so my stop gap is a little bigger but still very tight.
 
I haven't posted in this thread since early July now. And oil never climbed above 100 $ again and now it's trading at 90.

BUT something very interesting happened during the last few days:

1. The Tel Aviv stock index crashed and diverged heavily from the S&P 500. (remember Israel doesn't close markets for Christmas)

20121225_ta25_2_0.jpg


2. Oil massively outperformed stocks, bonds and other commodities today by rising 2.75%:

20121226_EOD%60_0.jpg


3. Iran is planning a naval drill in the straight of Hormuz, beginning tomorrow:

Iran will begin six days of naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz at the end of this week, an Iranian naval commander said on Tuesday, an exercise meant to showcase its military capabilities in what is a vital oil and gas shipping route.

The "Velayat 91" drills will be held from Friday to Wednesday across an area of about 1 million square kilometres in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and northern parts of the Indian Ocean, said Habibollah Sayyari, according to Iranian media.

Iranian officials have often said that Iran could block the strait - through which 40 percent of the world's sea-borne oil exports pass - if it came under military attack over its disputed nuclear programme.

Sayyari was quoted as saying the new drill would test the navy's missile systems, combat ships, submarines and patrol and reconnaissance methods.

"In this exercise we will use the navy's newest weapons and tactics," Sayyari said. "Certainly we will observe the marine borders of neighbouring states and will carry out our exercises according to international laws and regulations."

A heavy Western naval presence in the Gulf is meant to deter any attempt to block the waterway.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/12/25/iran-military-idINDEE8BO03A20121225


Combine these facts and things are smelling very fishy...
Maybe we're up for a geopolitical black swan.
 
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