When will it end?

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DSAbug

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So we got the month close. 3rd month in a row where gold closed lower. Usually, 2 month moves are a surefire way of picking highs and lows. It's such a good indicator that traders usually wont talk about it. How rare is it that gold closes down for 3 months in a row?

This is the 1st time it's happened since 2001. Let's just say the run ended at 3 and the run up following that was pretty significant to gold investors.

At the same time, gold stock indexes have also followed suit, closing down 3 months in a row.

In addition...

Gold sentiment data has set a new record. It has been negative (without bouncing) for over 34 trading days.
 
My dumb 50 dma system says - it was almost a buy yesterday, touched the 50 from underneath - but bounced off. Rats. Trend is obviously still down, with big wiggles, if it had crossed the 50, it might not even have been a buy unless it really crossed it "hard" or "convincingly" since the 50 has a rather nasty down slope on it at the moment.

Which, as you say is the first time in a very long time.

Posit: If all the CB's are buying gold, and the recent smashdown didn't get into the MSM (the most recent one wasn't as fast, but it was deeper than the one that did), then maybe that manipulation is trying to slam the price down so they can nickel and dime buy more in smaller orders till it goes up again - then another smash?

I'm just holding (and holding my nose). I bought a bunch last time it went over the 50 and decided to just hold it, whatever. So now I've got a bunch (say, a new Mercedes - and not one of the cheap ones) down about 4.5% from when I bought, actually worse, since I "doubled down" back there. Sigh, it's gold, it'll come back or the world will end for real and then I won't care anyway. I can wait, and will. No point booking a loss.
New smilie:wallbash.gif

I have another, but it's NSFW, where the little guy dances around and then gives an amazingly large finger...guess that one isn't so good for here, but I like the wallbash myself. Having just gotten a mess of "road rash" off my roof today.
 
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I would be interested to hear what some of our resident experts here think about Elliot Wave Theory. Does it hold water or is it BS?

I say this because the EW theory for gold shows there being a 3-4 month period of decline in the price of gold near the current timeframe and then another many-month incline. Here is an excerpt that I have extracted and plotted from a larger set of Elliot Wave data:

2z4wm6e.png


Not being an expert in market analysis myself, I am not making any claims but rather am posting this as an observation up for discussion.

It is interesting that EW theory correctly predicted the recent peak near $1900 and has come close to the local minimum near $1500 that we are currently in, albeit the timing for the low is off by a little bit.

Time will tell.
 
EW seems to border on voodoo from my POV. The trouble is, what timescale is used, and who's deciding where the waves start and end in what sub/prime/super cycle - even if it's "true". It just doesn't work for me, or it seems, most of the practitioners.

It does seem to sell newsletters, though.

I've never been a huge fan of TA in the sense that the numbers magically predict what's going to happen- they're just numbers generated as a result of human activities - do your moods follow this kind of fixed pattern like Elliot predicts? Mine either.

But I feel like you just about can't trade without TA. That's because at root, I'm a behaviorist, and I know darn well that a heck of a lot of trading (and nearly all the algos) use it. Therefore, if they all see a sell signal from TA (whichever "brown" heuristic-set they are using), selling happens - and vice versa. So you can use this sort of thing, if you're a little ahead of the rest, to predict the behavior of the herd enough to have an "edge".

So, it's as if a bunch of people hold a particular religion, devoutly. Heck, that just makes their actions in response to some new stimulus more predictable, right? You know they're not going to lose their religion from a minor setback, so how are they going to rationalize this new data into their rather stiff world-view, and then act on it? This stuff is in part, the tools to figure that one out and be on the other side of the dumb trades that generates.

But of TA, well, EW theory just hasn't worked out for me, like astrology or a host of other "out there" ways of looking at things. I look at human nature (which really never is different this time - only the stimuli change), but use this other stuff as a tool to get a handle on the other players at the poker table.
 
Thanks for the input DC.

I don't bank any hopes or bets on EW, but it does perk my interest, out of sheer curiosity if anything.

Another similar pattern that has been applied to the financial world is the Fibonacci series, which is a mathematical series and also occurs as patterns in nature. In mathematics, the Fibonacci numbers or Fibonacci series or Fibonacci sequence are the numbers in the following integer sequence:

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144......[where any number is the sum of the previous two numbers]

If you do this in reverse it becomes (starting with very large numbers and working down to zero):
.... 144, 89, 55, 34, 21, 13, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0

If the numbers above represent time in years, the zero "0" would be the "singularity", or in our world the SHTF moment of implosion, with the frequency of waves of financial peaks and valleys happening at shorter time intervals as the singularity approaches. [i.e. a wave 1 year before SHTF, then another wave 1 year before that, then another wave 2 years before that, and another 3 years before that, etc].

I agree with you that it all does sound kind of silly with respect to the financial world, but as one who is fascinated by math and numbers, I can't help but at least checking it out.
 
DA, I too have been thinking WTF is going on with these prices, but I saw this article today and it related with some of what I was feeling and picked up my sentiment right back up to normal.

From King World News..... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/2_Turk_-_Banks_%26_Governments_Will_Collapse_Together.html


With increased demonstrations across the globe, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Europe. Turk told KWN that banks and governments around the world are set up for a massive collapse, and they will go down together. Turk also discussed key markets and what he is doing with his own money right now. But first, here is what Turk had to say about the situation: “Have you seen the growing demonstrations here in Europe, Eric? So far, the protests have mainly been non-violent. They're protesting in the streets for good reason. Eleven of the seventeen countries in the EU are in a recession. With unemployment growing to record levels in some countries, certain key European nations are definitely in a depression.”

James Turk continues:

“Then there is the banking problem, particularly in Italy and Spain, where the banks loaded up with debt from their own government, which shows how their interests are aligned. It looks like these banks and their governments will go down together.

The same applies to Japan, UK, the US, and many other countries with zombie banks and over-leveraged governments....

“All of these factors make me recognize that holding physical gold is the right thing to do. Gold and silver are the only safe currencies in the world today.

I have been speaking with a lot of people about the precious metals lately, Eric, and one common theme emerges. Just about everyone is describing this correction as ‘brutal, painful, vicious’ or words to that effect. I can understand that negative sentiment, but I describe this correction differently. To me the best word to describe it is ‘long.’

Because it has been ‘long,’ this correction has been extremely frustrating. But we shouldn't let any of that negative sentiment cause us to take our eye off the ball, particularly at times like these. As investors, we need to think rationally, and avoid emotion. To do that, we need to focus on fundamentals and these remain very positive.

So every month I continue to do what I have been recommending to KWN readers for years. Every month I buy some precious metals, and will continue to accumulate them as long as they remain undervalued. Of late I've been buying silver. It's the better value.

Note how gold has been holding support at $1650, but silver keeps slipping further below $32. The shorts and central planners are throwing everything they have at the precious metals, Eric, but they are having a hard time trying to beat up gold.

Even their so-called ‘fat finger’ trade of 7500 contracts they put in on Monday didn't break gold. That trade was obviously made to ‘paint the tape', as Dan Norcini said in his KWN interview. Remember, this trade was strategically executed on one of the lowest volume days of the year, with much of Europe on a 4-day weekend. But even that huge paper trade could not break gold because the physical buyers were eager to scoop up real metal.

One last thing, Eric. Despite this correction and the negative sentiment, it is worth focusing on the fact that gold is up 6% so far this year, while silver is up 10%. It's been a great start to the year, which promises to be the 12th year in a row the gold price has risen.”
 
I would be interested to hear what some of our resident experts here think about Elliot Wave Theory. Does it hold water or is it BS?

I say this because the EW theory for gold shows there being a 3-4 month period of decline in the price of gold near the current timeframe and then another many-month incline .....................
It is interesting that EW theory correctly predicted the recent peak near $1900 and has come close to the local minimum near $1500 that we are currently in, albeit the timing for the low is off by a little bit. Time will tell.

visitor and definately not expert at anything but heres my take on EWT

It is an attempt to study human behaviour and apply it to the market.
In a genuinely free market it has validity.
Two steps forward one step back, is something we all probably recognise.
It still has some effect in a controlled market but the controllers are aware of it.
Think we all recognise crowd behaviour and the peaks n troughs in sentiment. Socionomics is a parallel 'science' that uses EWT to predict overall sentiment.

Now theres lots of historical evidence of patterns and loops in human behaviour that can be used to check the validity of EWT predictions and if Pretcher didnt have such a big ego i could even take him seriously, as he did well in the early days, before the controllers saw what he was doing.
I guess its a compliment when that happens.

The strongest pattern we are currently seeing, ( is it a wave 5 ?) is the one that is also being called 'the fourth turning', more of an inter-generational thing, so generally too big a wave pattern for most.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss-Howe_generational_theory

In conclusion, i reckon EWT works for the bigger waves but gets misused by the tape painters for short cycle patterns.
 
If you look at a long term chart going back to the last major low in 2008, you will see that gold has not yet broken the uptrend begun in 2008. Until that uptrend is broken there is no reason to expect gold not to turn around and start making monthly highs again.

If/when that uptrend is broken, gold should trend sideways to up for a few months, then crash HARD.

Personally, I see no reason for gold to break that uptrend for the foreseeable future which, to me, says now is the time to be accumulating PMs on a regular basis. Should the uptrend get broken, it would be time to become a net seller and/or an accumulator on MAJOR dips only. Accumulating in a down environment is a LONG term, probably decades, play.
 
from Bix Weir -

News just out that Craig Donohue, the CEO of the CME (COMEX) has just retired at the ripe old age of 49! CME Group CEO to retire at end of 2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/12/cme-ceo-idUSASA03SYB20120312

What do you want to bet that he doesn't make it to December?!

For those who don't know who this criminal is... he oversaw and orchestrated with the Banksters all the "take downs" of the silver market this decade.
 
Making sure he gets his parachute and flight to his homestead in a tax haven before some big shit happens, no doubt.
 
Today's spike is clearly qe expectations driven. Unemployment numbers were very bad. Stocks plunged, pms soared.
 
yup thats your fibb pattern
you can see it in the way trees and other things grow.

And being fractal in nature, these patterns can be seen at many levels.
Hence the banksters will focus on the ones we focus on for short term market management.
 
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