Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Gold Bug

Like Tree4Likes
  • 2 Post By swissaustrian
  • 1 Post By rblong2us
  • 1 Post By mmerlinn

LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 07-28-2012, 11:27 AM   #1
Yellow Jacket
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Lightbulb [Charts] The bubble phase of the gold bull market is still ahead

Historical analysis of secular bull markets suggests that we are close to the bubble phase, the final move of the cycle.
Compared to the 1970s gold bull market and the Nasdaq bull market, we should have about 2 more years, including the insanity phase.

Article and charts by aden forecast:

Quote :
Lows In The Making

Monday July 23, 2012 14:32

The markets have become demanding (or should we say, desperate). In spite of the stimulus by four central banks, and the Eurozone bailing out their banks, the markets want more.

More interesting, the gold price has held above its December lows. It’s holding firm, in spite of it all and especially considering the Summer months are seasonally slow months for gold.

It’s also not breaking down while the dollar strengthens. This in itself is a bullish sign. It seems to be telling us that more stimulus is coming.

SUMMER: Likely bottom

The June months tend to historically see the most lows for gold. The next popular low month is August. So again, we’ll be watching the $1536 lows carefully during these lazy days of Summer.

On the upside, if gold breaks above $1650 and stays there, the worst will be behind us. Then $1700, $1800 and $1900 will be the next stepping stones in the renewed rise. Record high territory would confirm the making of a strong leg upward.


How high is anyone’s guess. It all depends on the explosive stage in the bull market. That phase is still to come and Chart 1 provides a good example of this.

As you can see, gold has been moving within a mega upchannel since 1970. The gold rise since 2001 still has a ways to go before reaching the top side of this mega uptrend.

Note on the top chart that gold moved into the upper side of the mega channel when it burst into record territory in September 2009. This was just six months after QE first started in March 2009.

When gold reached the $1900 record level last September, the leading indicator (below) rose to the normal high area and it’s been declining since then, now approaching the uptrend and zero line.

This is the meat of the matter… the bottom line. The indicator is telling us that even though gold has risen in a clear consistent bull market for 11 years now, it has yet to reach bubble explosive levels.

Those moves would be more like what we saw in the 1970s. In those days, the full bull market rose 2300%. The current bull market since 2001 has only gained 660%... a far cry from the 1970s level.

Chart 2 shows this comparison well. You can see that today’s bull market hasn’t yet begun to move in bubble explosive conditions.

It’s getting closer though and the timing suggests we could see the start of the bubble phase by next year.

There really is no fever like gold fever, and the fever hasn’t started yet. For example, for this bull market to gain 2300%, we’d see a $6000 gold price, which would blow the gold price well above the mega upchannel.

Today, however, the mood is down. Many are discouraged by the decline of the last almost 11 months. It’s really not because of the 19+% decline, it’s the length of time that’s taken the enthusiasm out of the bull market.

But don’t be discouraged. If this sluggishness lasts another month or even two, it’s fine and new positions should be bought on weakness.

Buy on weakness and hold... a good strategy.

by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden,
April 27, 2012
Courtesy of

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter named 2010 Letter of the Year by MarketWatch, which provides specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets
rblong2us and mike like this.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2012, 12:14 PM   #2
Yellow Jacket
rblong2us's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,988
Liked: 880 times
The text is a bit confusing as gold was just breaking through the $1000 mark in sept 09 then an immediate reference to last septembers record price of $1900.
We know what they meant though (-:

A threefold increase from here, over the next 2 years, will have me cashing out (target just under $5k /oz) and converting to real estate, if the place of dreams is still for sale.
swissaustrian likes this.
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2012, 12:32 PM   #3
Yellow Jacket
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
A threefold increase from here, over the next 2 years, will have me cashing out (target just under $5k /oz) and converting to real estate, if the place of dreams is still for sale.
I have a similar plan
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2012, 06:34 PM   #4
Ground Beetle
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Here, There, and Everywhere
Posts: 633
Liked: 388 times
Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
... if the place of dreams is still for sale.
EVERYTHING is ALWAYS for sale. It is just a question of price.
ancona likes this.
If you keep doing what you are doing, You will keep getting what you are getting.
If you don't like what you are getting, You must change what you are doing.

GOLD is the money of KINGS.
SILVER is the money of GENTLEMEN.
BARTER is the money of PEASANTS.
DEBT is the money of SLAVES.
- Norm Franz
mmerlinn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2012, 02:38 PM   #5
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
I remember reading the adens when i 1st got into the business. They weren't very good about timing declines but sure did like to hype up the advances!

I still like reading their analysis from time to time. Not worth money though.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2012, 02:39 PM   #6
Yellow Jacket
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Volatility during the current bull market has been nowhere near the 1970s extremes so far:
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2012, 09:05 AM   #7
Golden Cockroach
PMBug's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,064
Liked: 2454 times
What does it look like if you adjust the scale to compare bullion to the one month rate of change?
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Gold/Silver is a bubble benjamen Fiat Ponzi 24 02-14-2013 03:48 AM
[Chart] Last mining bull market lasted 21 years (1960-81), current is just 11 years in swissaustrian Mining 0 03-30-2012 11:56 AM
Buffett article says gold is a bubble escobar PM Bug 22 03-05-2012 09:22 AM
Did Ron Paul Slay The Gold Bull? swissaustrian Gold Bug 10 12-20-2011 02:36 AM
Gold price analysis tools, charts, tables DoChenRollingBearing Gold Bug 3 11-03-2011 07:26 PM

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:30 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.