FOMC takedown

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What you really need to know:

Fitming%20expectations_0.jpg
 
I'm seeing reports in various corners like this:
At this afternoon’s FOMC Press Conference in response to a question posed as to whether the Fed would ever impose depositor haircuts as was attempted this week in Cyprus, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed that Cyprus style depositor haircut wealth confiscation is possible here in the US if the Cyprus event or another event in Europe were to become contagious and the people lose confidence in the US dollar.
Click to expand...

http://whatreallyhappened.com/conte...-possible-us-if-events-europe-become-contag-0

However, I checked the video (pertinent Q&A found @ ~47:25 mark): http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20130320.htm

and believe the Bernank's response is being mischaracterized.
 
Could someone please decipher the bar chart SA posted. I am "chartarded" and can't seem to process the information this morning.
 
ancona said:
Could someone please decipher the bar chart SA posted. I am "chartarded" and can't seem to process the information this morning.
Click to expand...

This is showing the expectations of the fomc's 19 participants (the seven members of the FED's Board of Governors and the 12 FED district presidents, only five of which vote at a time) regarding the timing of raising interest rates (upper chart) and the level of the fed funds rate at the end of 2013, 2014, 2015 and beyond (lower chart).
If you add up the numbers or the dots, you'll get 19 each time.
 
If I'm reading it right, most FOMC members are looking to 2015 or so to make any significant changes to QE policy.
 
...and of course, it is all their current expectations, that might (and will) be re-evaluated, as I still cannot square that circle, how we could solve the problem with >>> GLOBAL <<< debt overhang, by trying to force-feed everyone and anyone, with ever increasing amounts of debts - all the same, "tightening lending standards" :shrug: :loco:
 
FOMC minutes are due tomorrow at 2pm.
The bad employment numbers were not published when the minutes were written in March, so I don't expect anything new. Consequently, the reaction in pms should be muted.
I we get a dovish surprise, we could get another short squeeze bump to the upside like today.

Miners are signalling a surprise:

GDXJ
15.78 +0.58 +3.84%

GDX
36.00 +1.35 +3.90%

^HUI
337.63 +13.45 +4.15%

On the importance of miners for predicting news release effects on pms, see here:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f14/frontrunning-mining-stocks-2249/
 
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FOMC minutes released early because:

This shocker just hit the tape:

FED TO RELEASE FOMC MINUTES AT 9 A.M. VS SCHEDULED 2 P.M.
FED: MINUTES MISTAKENLY SENT EARLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS

So the Fed now pre-releases data to US politicians ahead of everyone else. What else does the Fed leak to those for whom frontrunning is still legal? And as if we needed more confirmation, the market is now officially a complete circus.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...arly-due-early-release-congressional-staffers
 
Trade groups? What a farce this "free market" is.
 
let's face it, it seems that every last one investor have figured out already, that the Fed WILL continue to print, until it cannot print no more - regardless what they have to say...

this is going to be some sight to behold, when it stops...
 
Oops. The Federal Reserve accidentally emailed the minutes from its March meeting to about 100 people a day early.

While no major news was expected to come from the minutes, they are nevertheless a key document that can move markets from time to time. Wall Street players often dig deep into the minutes for hints about when the central bank may pull back on its bond-buying policy or raise interest rates.

For that reason, the minutes are usually highly protected by the central bank and their release is supposed to be executed carefully.

A Fed spokesman told CNNMoney the mistake was "entirely accidental," and it was a "human error," not a technological one. The roughly 100 individuals on the list mostly included Congressional employees and employees of trade organizations. They received the minutes shortly after 2 p.m. on Tuesday.

After discovering the error this morning, the Federal Reserve decided to release the minutes to the broader public at 9 a.m. Wednesday.

At this point, it's not clear whether any trading took placed based on the early release, but the Federal Reserve Board's Inspector General will conduct an initial investigation of the error.

"We will be working with market regulators, the SEC and CFTC to insure they have the information they need to evaluate the incident," a Fed spokesman said.
...
Click to expand...
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/10/news/economy/fed-minutes-early/index.html
 
lol. Clarence Beeks strikes again.

beeks7ui.jpg
 
Maybe I missed it in the thread but it doesn't matter if the Fed starts to unwind its position or even just slow bond purchasing.

The damage has already been done and it would take amazing momentum in the markets as well as jobs etc. to absorb the damage.

We are in this for awhile.

I'll continue to buy the dips till I see different.

-Q
 
Isn't it funny how the early release of the minutes totally changed the way they were traded?
There was no significant reaction in any market, no hft bs. Maybe they should make posting news releases randomly throughout the day the new standard modus operandi...
 
Why would the FED send the minutes to anyone if they intended to do it after the official release to the public? It available as a pdf on the FED's website...

This is standard procedure and somebody blew the whistle, so they had to come clean.

Totally coincidal:

NONE OF THE PEOPLE ON THE LIST ALERTED THE FED THAT THEY RECEIVED NONPUBLIC INFO A DAY EARLY

Fed Releases Names Of Early FOMC Minutes Recipients: Include Employees Of Goldman, Barclays, JPM, Law And PE Firms

We will release the full list of named recipients once we get it, but here is what we now for now, via BBG and CNN:

EMPLOYEES AT GOLDMAN SACHS, BARCLAYS, JP MORGAN, CITI, NOMURA, UBS, HSBC RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY YESTERDAY
MOST OF THE BANK EMPLOYEES APPEAR TO WORK IN GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS (Lobbies)
ABA, SIFMA, SENATE STAFFERS RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY
FED NAMES 154 RECIPIENTS OF EARLY RELEASE OF FOMC MINUTES
FED MINUTES SENT EARLY TO BANKS, LAW FIRMS, PRIVATE EQUITY
FED EARLIER SAID RELEASE WENT MAINLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS
NONE OF THE PEOPLE ON THE LIST ALERTED THE FED THAT THEY RECEIVED NONPUBLIC INFO A DAY EARLY

In other words: absolutely everyone who trades risk assets for a living!
Click to expand...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...e-employees-goldman-barclays-#comment-3433603
 
I guarantee that this was not the first time either. Well, it was the first time they got caught, but not the first time they leaked data. I'll bet one of you chartists could track down suspicious movement within the markets and find numerous other instances. anyhow, what the everlovin fuck are the minutes broadcast to these parasites for in the first place?? shouldn't they be required to go to the FED website like the rest of the proletariats?

Will someone please stop the planet, I want to get off now.

: - (
 
I happen to like my little bit of this planet. It's some others I'd like to see get off - preferably without it stopping so they hit space harder.
 
"EMPLOYEES AT GOLDMAN SACHS, BARCLAYS, JP MORGAN, CITI, NOMURA, UBS, HSBC RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY YESTERDAY"

So, the dirty hands of the PPT basically.
 
Found a link to this in the comments on SD:
... the June 2003 FOMC minutes. It’s long and I highly doubt that anyone will read this but it’s in black and white what the Fed was going to do back in 2003. The programs of Zirp, QE, operation twist, and smashing the Fed’s fund rate was talked about and basically agreed by most in the meeting. What we are seeing currently was already predetermined by the Fed 10 years ago. This was all premeditated but some Fed officials were very nervous about the outcomes of these programs. They understood that if they started to smash the yield curve to zero and buy the bonds directly it would be irreversible. They also had reservations about unwinding these positions. They talked about their balance sheet exploding and it would cause a perception problem. We are witnessing all of this right now! It’s absolutely crazy that people haven’t read this document. It would really open your eyes and prove how rigged every market is. ...
Click to expand...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20030625meeting.pdf
 
Why is gold down today? Oh yeah.. That's right.. it's FOMC day..
 
No no no.... ADP numbers released this morning were dissappointing. It's all about fundamentals don't you know.
 
Yeah...ADP ...which does NOT cover the entire workforce.

You see..I'm an accountant by trade and I know of many small businesses who do not use ADP.

In fact, ADP #'s are constantly being revised as they DONT MEAN SHIT!

I heard this morning that the Fed is looking to easing buying by the end of this year and into 2014.

Wait..I mean I've heard that before right?

/facepalm

-Q
 
Holiday in Europe and China. plus the FOMC..

I was even expecting a correction to start this week but this is just dumb. I figured they would be reacting to news as an excuse that sounded at least somewhat plausible.

The ADP number was horrible.
 
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will probably reduce the Federal Reserve’s monthly bond buying in the fourth quarter to $50 billion from $85 billion as he begins to unwind record stimulus, economists said in a Bloomberg survey.

Policy makers must find a way to slow the pace of purchases enough to signal confidence the economy is strengthening without prompting a sudden rise in interest rates, said former Fed economists Michael Feroli and Joseph LaVorgna. They said that probably means the Fed, which concludes a policy meeting today, will follow a three-step strategy to wind down bond buying.

“There is concern the first taper would be misinterpreted as the onset of a tightening cycle” and cause interest rates to go up, said Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) in New York. An initial reduction to $50 billion to $60 billion a month, followed by a second cut to $30 billion and then a halt to bond buying “would be enough of a runway to know and gauge the effects of what they’re doing, but not too long a runway where it’s a painfully interminable process.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (TREFQE2) plans to release a statement at 2 p.m. after a meeting in Washington. None of the 47 economists in the Bloomberg survey taken April 25-29 expects a decision at this week’s meeting to change the pace of purchases.
...
Click to expand...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...stimulus-with-qe-cut-by-end-of-this-year.html

We all know the Fed is in the business of managing expectations...
 
It is a rather historic transfer of wealth without the public getting a chance to vote on whether they agree with it or not. We just get to read the minutes.
 
FOMC announcement later today. Tapering rhetoric expected. Both gold and silver are close to support levels and the manipulators might be tempted to try to push them through 1320 / 20 . However, they're up intraday on no news.
If the FED comes out less hawkish than expected, we might see upside in the metals. Tapering seems to be priced in already.
During the last weeks, the FED always became nervous when bonds yields spiked and stocks fell. They reacted immediately via mouthpieces and assured that everything would be fine. They will be very cautious in talking about any cut back in QE.
 
This chatter about tapering is utter bullshit.

It isn't QE stopping but slowing down IF they do it.

That means the printing press is still going.

People just don't understand how to grasp this.

The fed is going to try and slow down this convoy of 18 wheelers while trying to move space and time so the destination doesn't matter how long it takes for delivery while those depending will also just have to adjust and wait because they can.

Right!

-Q
 
swissaustrian said:
During the last weeks, the FED always became nervous when bonds yields spiked and stocks fell. They reacted immediately via mouthpieces and assured that everything would be fine. They will be very cautious in talking about any cut back in QE.
Click to expand...

Great insight! :cheers:
 
*fed maintains $85 billion monthly pace of bond buying
*fed says labor market shows `further improvement'
*fed says downside risks diminished since autumn
*bullard, george dissent from fomc statement
 
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