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Old 01-09-2016, 02:15 AM   #1
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IF FOFOA is right, then when does the Au disappear?


FOFOA has a public post up at his blog. His latest post (long!) essentially recaps many of his views through time, but he ups the ante on when gold may go through the roof (after a BIG decline in paper price). His latest piece has the hopeful title: "2016: The Year of the Fire Sale".

He has thought that we could see "paper gold" sink to perhaps $400 right before the market breaks -- that is, NO ONE would sell at $400 (certainly not me), and the phyzz would disappear. OK, I have always accepted that, paper will go to zero as those who owe physical gold default (and just pay in FIAT$).

If his scenario more-or-less comes true, what price do you all think we would have to reach (on the downside before the reset) for all the gold to disappear (from the LCSs, APMEX, etc.)?

Before I post my guess (and just a guess, because I don't know), I ask you all to post your guesses!

(Note that I will buy much more Au should Mr. and Mrs. Bearing win the $800 million Powerball Sat. night...)
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Old 01-10-2016, 03:45 PM   #2
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Interestingly zero has now eased its way up to $400 .......

FOFOA considers it possible to create almost unlimited paper promises linked to the price of gold, yet most observers consider there has to be a whiff of the real thing.

Soooooo at what price does the real thing sulk in the cupboard as its owner refuses to bring it into the light ?

For me, that price has already been reached cos I do not HAVE to sell and the original justification for purchase was safety not quick profit.

For others I guess they will have some formula that triggers a loss cutting sell signal,
50% would seem like a useful one.
The lowest price we've seen recently is 1050 and its probably averaged 1150 for the last year.

I will call it at $600 then.

I just hope it happens overnight UK time ...... )-:
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:05 AM   #3
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If the proposed march downwards is orderly, (much like the march downward from the highs to today's price point has been - no panic) I don't know that the retail investors who buy physical are going to be storming the gates to drive up premiums (over spot) and vacuum out physical inventories from the retail/wholesale markets. A crashing stock market (or, heaven forbid - bond market) might change that calculus though.

I would be surprised if $POG went sub $400 and you could still find physical for sale at retail, but I've been surprised before.

Lot's of people were "back up the truck" if/when silver goes back down to 30 (then 26, then 20, then 16, etc.) and silver was sub 14 just a few days ago. I don't see premiums skyrocketing or inventories on critical life support. It's relative to the broader markets. I think most people got tired of fighting the Fed/banks and were happy to ride the stock markets on the backs of the interventions. When the faith in the central banks ability to keep the bubble expanding hits, things will change and, I think, change quickly.

It's interesting to note that FOFOA thinks foreign powers are working to depeg from the dollar and maintain free floating FX exchange rates which will limit the importance of SDRs. If Rickards is right and the central bankers are working on a new world order master plan, I'm guessing that we aren't going to see free floating FX exchanges last very long. Maybe they float freely for a little while to relieve some stress and find a more natural equilibrium point. I was surprised to see that the IMF apparently accelerated the China/SDR timetable by announcing their inclusion last month when Rickards indicated that the plan was to let them in later this September (or was it October - off the top of my head I don't remember exactly). It would seem that the timetable has changed and perhaps it's indicative of some duress amongst TPTB.

I don't have an analytical breakdown of the facts/markets, but I do feel (intuition) like this year is going to see some major shit happening.
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Old 01-11-2016, 05:14 PM   #4
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Gents! Yeah, this IS going to be an interesting year. I have no special insights, but I would guess the $500 - $800 range as about the bottom, and when it would disappear.

Who is going to sell their gold at $600?? Only the desperate I would suppose, and not in huge amounts. The huge amounts have been collected already (I guess), a little more still to be bought, then it would get hard to buy anything should the "paper price" plunge too much further.

Regardless, if this year 2016 gets any weirder, the only place you'll find me is under the bed!
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Old 01-14-2016, 02:51 AM   #5
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Disappear? Probably not until it goes far lower. 2008 Gold low was about $700 and it was readily available then. So, when/if it goes back to $700 it should still be available, but obviously in lower quantities.

The big issue won't be the price of gold. It will be the premiums that dealers must charge so they can stay in business. We already see that with silver, especially junk silver, with high premiums effectively putting a floor under physical silver prices. Around here dealers are PAYING OVER spot to get junk silver whereas just a few months ago I could occasionally find dealers SELLING UNDER spot.
If you keep doing what you are doing, You will keep getting what you are getting.
If you don't like what you are getting, You must change what you are doing.

GOLD is the money of KINGS.
SILVER is the money of GENTLEMEN.
BARTER is the money of PEASANTS.
DEBT is the money of SLAVES.
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