Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Gold Bug

Like Tree2Likes
  • 1 Post By PMBug
  • 1 Post By DSAbug

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 01-19-2012, 01:19 PM   #1
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Maybe it's all Option expiration... maybe not

Looking at the GDX, HUI and XAU.. It seems like they are leading gold a bit and indicating we've got lower prices ahead. It will be interesting to see how this pans out because we've already corrected over 6% off the highs even though gold is barely down about 1% off it's highs.

I think that most of the problem stems from NEM and KGC but overall, the tone of the miners is one which wants to head lower and fill the gap up from the beginning of the year. What we need to hope for is for either gold to go crazy and force the miners up. Right now, they are headed lower and could be acting as leaders on the way down. Let's hope that the miners bottom here soon otherwise, that spells trouble short term.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2012, 01:25 PM   #2
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
Or a better buying opportunity. My fairly dumb gold trading system just flashed a buy, but it's right at threshold - and could reverse any second, so I didn't jump on it yet - better to miss a little bit than get whipsawed.

That system is based on history though - and at no other time in history has there been major sovereign default in the picture. I'd guess that makes most back tested systems a little suspect and we can expect some pretty weird gyrations in the near term due to people having to do things they wouldn't do otherwise in response to that.
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2012, 02:13 PM   #3
Fly on the wall
 
h4rdware's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: little britain
Posts: 94
Liked: 39 times
It is indeed wise to be wary of back-tested systems. The biggest problem I have with my own prediction system is the fact that it's based on historical prices - and we're most interested in the price, when we're least likely to be able to rely on previous prices!

Having said that, a number of my experiments show short-mid term behaviour does contain more signal than noise, enough to be usable. If you're careful you can do something with that a lot of the time.

The last test results I posted showed an upturn by mid January, albeit with an uncertain top - it showed a rather uncertain sell warning (red colour) mid-late january, around/above the 1650 mark.

I also wrote some 'interpretations' on the plot, but I would ignore that because I'd had a few that night. Just look at the plot itself (final frame).

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12947585/4shots.png

(from an earlier post)
h4rdware is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2012, 07:47 AM   #4
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Something serious is going on inside the CRIMEX and I don't think it's just opex again.
Today gold shoots up right after the opening bell, although other (fiat) currencies stay flat against the USD or even loose. That's totally counterintuitive and very rare. Yesterday it was the other way arround.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2012, 10:06 AM   #5
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,017
Liked: 2443 times
escobar likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2012, 10:22 AM   #6
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
We are still in Op X..

i'm not bearish but wouldn't recommend everyone buy this breakout. If the market gets weak, we should get lower prices. I've been to this chili cookoff before.
swissaustrian likes this.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2012, 04:25 PM   #7
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
A buck fifty five in silver today......not bad. I am still looking for a trigger event to wipe out all this enthusiasm for fiat currency to jack my holdings. I am in "trickle buy" mode right now, using as many Anconabucks as I can scrape together to buy an ounce or two here and there. I realize silver is severely undervalued right now, and would like to cash out everything I have in savings, retirement and my insurance policies today and use it to buy silver while it is still cheap, but the "Boss" would give spontaneous birth to a fucking iguana if I did. She hasn't come completely over from the dark side yet, but I'm working on it.
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2012, 05:20 PM   #8
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
SA, did you mean silver above? I didn't see gold doing much.
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2012, 06:51 PM   #9
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,965
Liked: 870 times
todays movements look more like a $ down day
My £ based pm holdings are neutral on the day and down on the week.

unchanged in ounces though .........
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2012, 09:10 AM   #10
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,017
Liked: 2443 times
According to http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html,

The dollar actually strengthened on the day and the move was 100%+ due to trading activity:

__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2012, 11:05 AM   #11
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Treasuries look pretty vulnerable right now.. If they don't rally them soon, it could get really ugly.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2012, 11:10 AM   #12
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
Originally Posted by dereksatkinson View Post:
Treasuries look pretty vulnerable right now.. If they don't rally them soon, it could get really ugly.
Ugly on the fiat side of the equation.....right?
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2012, 02:17 PM   #13
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,017
Liked: 2443 times
Boom shakalaka:
Quote :
... Quoting from FMX Connect: "Today’s incredible move was the culmination of a comment made by UBS analyst Edel Tully. He stated that hedge fund manager Eric Sprott may be in the market buying spot futures in a private letter to his clients." And even as the premium dropped, the price of spot silver increased by over 5%, on the speculation of silver being taken out of the market and delivered to Sprott.

So to summarize: speculation that $300 million in physical silver may be taken out of circulation raises the price of the underlying by 5%. Does that mean that a $3 billion follow on would result in a 50% rise in spot; $30 billion in 500%, and so on? Something tells us the trade off of the premium collapsing to zero in exchange for $100+ silver would be equitable... And as we noted previously, the primary reason for the surge in in the NAV could be many things, but shortage of real physical silver is certainly the most likely one (and good luck trying to buy, transport, store, and insure $10MM or more in physical, without relying on some true physical representation such as PSLV). And if UBS' speculation is true, this has just been confirmed. Most importantly, it once again raises the spectre that anyone wishing to corner the silver market, can do so quite easily even in the aftermath of last year's parabolic move.
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/explai...s-silver-surge
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:20 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.