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Old 06-30-2012, 10:40 AM   #1
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Monday

So, what are the thoughts regarding Monday? Do we sustain the mini rally on Europe and the promise [again] of a unilateral bailout, or do we succumb to reality and wake up to the fact that nothing has been fixed, no one has been saved, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Italy are deep in economic depression and another hundred billion dollars in debt is not the answer?

I suspect that without some announcement this weekend about euroland, and no new revelations about any banks or business failures in the USA, we have a Monday puff rally on shit volume.

I further suspect that players in PM's will continue to follow the lead of the smart folks who have been stacking all along, and start to convert in to physical. I further suspect that something is boiling below the surface at the major bullion banks, and that it has everything to do with hypothecated metal and a lack of physical available for delivery in the face of massive redemption requests.
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Old 06-30-2012, 05:47 PM   #2
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nothing new then

same old, same old .........

Can they maintain the illusion indefinately ?

Simply because we have a slightly better understanding than most of how the game works, doesnt mean we can predict an end to it.
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Old 06-30-2012, 06:16 PM   #3
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On Monday, I expect a mildly weak opening. Yesterday's short squeeze was so violent, there should be some reversal initially. However, things could turn arround to the upside before US markets open.

Independence day week plus first week of the quarter generally is a tough call. Many big players are going to run with a reduced crew this week. Thursday has two central bank meetings scheduled: BoE and ECB. The ECB is expected to keep rates at 1% (yes still not zero, unlike in the US). If they cut unexpectedly, the Euro might rally (paradoxically, because under the new normal of ZIRP4EVA lowering rates doesn't weaken the currency). Friday's june non-farm payrolls could provide more QE hopes - if abysmal again.

For pms, the (probably) low volumes arround the holiday usually mean some danger. A fat finger might want to take advantage of that.

The big joker is geopolitical instability: Syria and Egypt.
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Old 06-30-2012, 09:28 PM   #4
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Well, in terms of money where my mouth is - super long gold (half hedged though) and super short the markets - doubled down friday, might do it again if we get a puff rally...

Could be wrong, but I think at some point, hopefully soon, that people who do arithmetic will figure out that the last summit was really another mostly-bust. If they really do start printing, as implied, then the gold will offset the market short and I'll dump that and take my winnings - but I might win both trades, and that's what I'm hoping of course.
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Old 07-01-2012, 12:26 AM   #5
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Monday...? I certainly don't know this late Sat. evening, working my way through my absinthe and raspberry vodka cocktail...

NOTHING has changed though...
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Old 07-02-2012, 08:01 AM   #6
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So far it looks like the short covering continued after the Comex opening bell. Before that, there was the weakness I had expected, though.
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Old 07-02-2012, 08:28 AM   #7
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We just went from spike to slump. These criminals are not even trying to hide it. When it becomes acceptable to steal in the light of day, and it is understood to be happening by the regulators as well as the traders, it is time to decouple paper from physical. Why in the hell this has yet to happen boggles my mind.
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Old 07-02-2012, 09:27 AM   #8
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Closed a nice trade on BTE (oil) at the open at 42 - bought at 37.70 about a week ago.
Nail biting on my rather large S&P short, but it is tending my way.
Gold looks like just farting around to me. I've hedged about 60% of my holdings, and will just decide which side of the trade to take off when some real move happens.
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