Physical supplies of 100oz bars drying up

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I checked just now and apmex shows 974 bars in stock.
 
I checked just now and Apmex reports 907 of the 100oz bars (all refiners/brands) available.
 
Just checked and Apmex currently reporting 898 total 100oz bars of silver across all brands/refiners.

tulving reports some inventory of JM / Engelhard 100oz bars now. Still sold out of all other brands/refiners.
 
Just checked and Apmex shows 860 bars of 100oz silver available currently.
 
Just checked and Apmex shows 839 of the 100oz silver bars currently available.

I'm hearing that the Perth mint has also run out of inventory on many of their offerings.
 
Just checked and Apmex is reporting 819 of the 100oz silver bars across all brands are currently available.
 
Just checked and Apmex is showing 782 of the 100oz silver bars currently available.

Gainesville is now reporting availability of some 100oz bars.
 
Just checked and Apmex is reporting 741 of the 100oz silver bars currently available.
 
apmex seems to have increased their inventory over the weeked. They are currently reporting 942 of the 100oz silver bars available.
 
Just checked and apmex is reporting 909 of the 100oz silver bars available.

tulving still reporting some inventory of JM / Engelhard 100oz bars. Unless I missed it before, they have added a new inventory of 100oz bars from Ohio Precious Metals. They still report out of stock for all other 100oz bar bands.

Provident now reporting some inventory of JM 100oz bars.

Gainesville appears to now have several brands of 100oz bars in stock.

It appears that physical inventories of 100oz bars are stabilizing as the spot price of silver trades at ~$34/oz.
 
Anecdotal report from the Perth Mint courtesy of a commenter at TFMetals:
silverstool said:
...
Demand is so strong we are selling everything we can make. It's simply demand outstripping supply, even with expanded capacity. Apologies for your current frustrations.
...

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/83399#comment-83399

apmex currently reporting 899 bars of 100oz silver bars available. Unless I'm mistaken, they just added bars from Ohio Precious Metals as a new offering, so the 54 bars they have from them make the 899 total apples to oranges comparison to previous counts (apmex would have 845 bars without them).

tulving now reporting only 300,000+ oz of silver in stock. At the last update, they were reporting 400,000+ oz in stock.
 
Two sides to this that I see. I think showing limited quantities of stock is a deliberate marketing ploy, to be honest, no differently than an infomercial telling you to ACT NOW BECAUSE SUPPLIES ARE LIMITED!! If they showed an enormous supply (relative to average sensibilities), people would tend to relax and take their time. If they show what looks like a shortage, people get anxious and are willing to buy more in a shorter time.

The other side to this is that supplies really are limited - just not on scales and timelines that most people can comprehend or relate to. If people knew what was really happening, there really would be a rush, as all supplies are exhausted. However, the alarmists have the opposite effect, as people become desensitized and go to sleep. The Titanic might have just hit an iceberg, with two hours before it sinks, but it's floating now just fine, so what's the problem? There is time. Or the weather inside the eye of the hurricane is so calm that it is inconceivable to the mind that things are going to get very scary, and very soon.

In a strange way, we have the alarmists to calm our fears, because they look so ridiculous, so out of place in contrast to what looks like business as usual going on around them. Some hear or read a Porter Stansberry report for the first time and want to run screaming down the street. They make an immediate purchase, as they buy up food stuffs and baton down the hatches. Then tomorrow comes. Prices have gone up some, but otherwise the ship is still afloat, despite the water it has taken on. Then a barrage of what looks like cheesy multi-level marketing garbage floods into the inbox, all filled with "Secret Inside Information" from the doomsayer. And the feeling of "Oh crap, was I taken in by these people?" hits. Well, yes. And no. Yes, you were taken in by them, and are a mark, and no, they aren't wrong. In the long run, what they are predicting is inevitable. But that does not mean that life does not go on. Today, tomorrow, and even when it hits. Just be prepared. You don't know how much time you have to prepare, but panic is not going to help. Just take the necessary steps for today and let providence rule the details.
 
Well, unless you think all the dealers and Aussie mint are in collusion to perpetrate a Jedi mind trick on the few peeps like me who are paying attention to these details, I'd say that - taken all together, the numbers are brush strokes in a painting that's worth studying.
 
Actually, I think it was probably a mistake to even call it a marketing ploy, as that was just a thought on what it could be. It could be as simple as something like the same average number of cans on an average grocer's shelf, without much thought to it beyond that. In one business I once owned in the semiconductor industry, we would stock twenty of a given item (mass flow controllers) as ready for sale in the moment, but with literally hundreds available and waiting in the warehouse.
 
I know that apmex does a similar thing with the inventory of Silver Eagles, but I'm not sure that they do so with the 100 oz bars. When smaller dealers (and tulving which is not a small dealer) are reporting that they are out of inventory in correlation with apmex stocks depleting, I tend to think the numbers are reflective of available inventory. But that's pure guesswork on my part.
 
Seems like we may have found an inflection point in the physical bullion market. I just checked around today:

Provident - now has several brands of 100oz bars in stock

Tulving - now reporting 400,000+ oz silver in stock; also reporting several brands of 100oz bars in stock now

apmex - surprisingly, now showing only 850 of the 100oz bars available. I had expected the number to be up seeing as how most other dealers were showing new inventory available.

It appears that when silver is below $33/oz, inventories disappear. With silver above $33/oz, supply returns. Of course, there aren't near enough data points here to make any kind of rigorous analysis. This is entirely superficial, but worth watching IMO.
 
I'm glad you're watching all this stuff, it keeps me logged in here to see what I might have missed.
 
Well, it appears that people were buying the Thursday dip. I checked just now and apmex is reporting only 751 of the 100ozt bars available.

tulving now reporting 600,000+ ozt of silver in stock (and 3 different brands of 100ozt bars available).

provident and gainesville both appear to have several options available as well.
 
The lower they drive the price of silver, the fewer big bars seem to be available. coincidence?
 
GoldCore said:
...
From the GoldCore Trading Desk

There are reports of some US and UK bullion dealers not having supply of certain bullion product – particularly silver bars.

We currently have stock of nearly all major bullion products in volume and ready for immediate delivery.

However, supply issues are developing with regard to 10 oz silver bars which are not available for now. 100 oz silver bars in volume require a 2 week wait.
...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/euroz...isastrous-german-auction-silver-supply-issues

Sprott is going to have a hard time sourcing his silver.
 
Just checked apmex and they are reporting 961 of the 100oz silver bars available.
 
tulving now reporting 550,000 ozt of silver available. Perhaps they sold a lot of those Black Friday specials on 90% silver. They still have stock on a few different mints/brands of 100 ozt silver bars.

apmex is now reporting 1,065 of the 100 ozt silver bars currently available.
 
Just did my rounds checking things. Apmex currently reporting only 930 of the 100ozt silver bars available. That's a drop of 135 bars (or >10% of last reported inventory) in one week.

Tulving is now reporting only 450,000 ozt of silver in stock although they appear to have a good variety of 100ozt bars available.

Both provident and gainesville list a variety of 100ozt bars available.

I'll keep a closer eye on this as the price of silver drops drops this holiday season.
 
Checked just now and Apmex reports 920 of the 100ozt silver bars available.
 
Checked just now and Apmex reports 872 of the 100ozt silver bars available.

Tulving still reporting 450K+ ozt silver in stock, but it appears that the selection of 100 ozt bars is shrinking. I'm seeing some new listings (I think they are new - I don't recall seeing them previously) for new items like boxes of ATBs, Australian Kookaburras and Canadian Cougars.
 
Checked just now and Apmex reports 837 of the 100 ozt silver bars available. Roughly 4% of their inventory gone in 24 hours.
 
The paper selling is going to force a lot of folks in to physical. anyone who buys on the great deleveraging we are going to see play out will be the victor.
 
Just checked and apmex now reports 631 bars of 100ozt silver available. The smash down in silver price definitely spurred physical buyers as they have sold more than 200 bars or 25% of their reported inventory in 24 hours.
 
540 this morning (I couldn't help myself). I'll check again around 3:30pm to keep the 24 hour window checking going, but Apmex has sold off ~35% of their inventory (or pulled it from sale) in the last ~40 hours.
 
507. Another ~20% gone in the last 24 hours.
 
If I had the time, I´d monitor all the big dealers. I´m sure they all sold signifcant parts of their inventory.
The small dealers probably didn´t even sell. Small unhedged miners probably didn´t either.
Silver looked strong compared to gold today.
In September we went down to 26. We never came even close to that during the current mini crash.
Gold, on the other hand nearly touched it´s september lows.
 
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I just started (yesterday) an Excel worksheet to track inventory and premiums of 1 ozt and 10 ozt gold bars as well as 100 ozt silver bars - and to do it with better detail than I've been doing so far in this thread. In the spreadsheet, I'm detailing the inventory for each brand/item within each category so I should be able to see for sure when new items are introduced, etc.
 
I just started (yesterday) an Excel worksheet to track inventory and premiums of 1 ozt and 10 ozt gold bars as well as 100 ozt silver bars - and to do it with better detail than I've been doing so far in this thread. In the spreadsheet, I'm detailing the inventory for each brand/item within each category so I should be able to see for sure when new items are introduced, etc.

We would love to see this PMBug, thanks.
 
Excellent PMBug! I would like to see your methodology too. I once asked my blog readers if there was an easy way to call up local coin shops and get THEIR inventory info (+/- OK).

But, someone pointed out to me that they would not likely divulge such information, probably for security reasons.
 
Go to an apmex product page like this one:

http://www.apmex.com/Category/1193/100_oz_Silver_Bars.aspx

You can enter 9999 into the box next to the "add to cart" button for every product (one at a time, naturally). You will get a pop-up error message telling you when you have exceeded their available inventory and they will then show you the current max available.

Interesting. I did that with each 100 oz. bar type, as it automatically changes the max quantity available in the box, and added each to my cart. If I bought all 100 oz. bars shown as available it would be 476 bars at a total cost of $1,497,154.
 
Hahahaha! I though I was the only one who knew to do that. Just goes to show you what an arrogant prick I really am. ;-)

Thanks SD. I also have been watching as heavy bars flow inexhorably out and away from the dealers. I can't wait for Asia to open tomorrow night.
 
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