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Old 12-13-2012, 08:40 AM   #1
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Sweet!!

Nice cliff dive Boyzz! Well orchestrated and well timed. these guys are really good at this manipulation thing. Keep it up, I may be getting a small bonus this year after all and this will simply allow me to buy moar!

BTFD Bitchezz!

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Old 12-13-2012, 08:42 AM   #2
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Bwahahahaha! 44 cents in twelve or thirteen minutes.....looks like they are trying to take out support here.

Should make for good action today. Now, where's my popcorn?
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Old 12-13-2012, 09:24 AM   #3
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Banging pms into the stock market opening has become almost a routine lately.
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:14 AM   #4
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I think 100% of this is the hedgefund liquidation. It's pure insanity.
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:35 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by DSAbug View Post:
I think 100% of this is the hedgefund liquidation. It's pure insanity.
If you're right, than it's forced liquidation due to margin calls. They were caught on the wrong (long) side as they expected pms to skyrocket on the FOMC announcement. Leverage can be brutal.
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:36 AM   #6
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... the other side of the liquidation scenrio is that commercials should be out there covering shorts like crazy.
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:43 AM   #7
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If you look at the Kitco one day chart, you can see that it is looking like some shorts are indeed covering their asses.
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Old 12-13-2012, 10:55 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
... the other side of the liquidation scenrio is that commercials should be out there covering shorts like crazy.
Well, if Alasdair Macleod is correct, this is likely just another attempt to fix a big, looming problem (and they need to push lower to be successful).
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Old 12-13-2012, 11:16 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
If you're right, than it's forced liquidation due to margin calls. They were caught on the wrong (long) side as they expected pms to skyrocket on the FOMC announcement. Leverage can be brutal.
Over 900 hedgefunds are closing this year and over 500 are opening Jan 1...

No just small funds either. Corriente and Kleinheinz are closing. Those are huge funds. Corriente is probably going to have to close their Short China and European fund next year too because their lockup ends in 6 months.

Quite a few funds bet big on CDS and lost everything because of it. We were seeing 80% haircuts not being considered credit events for sovereign debts. Why? Because those CDS being triggered would have destroyed the institutions backing them. The same institutions that ultimately had a say on determining whether or not a credit event had taken place were also considered TBTF by politicians. It was a farce. The 1st time they successfully paid out the CDS and that brought tons of attention to those securities. They suckered billions of dollars into the trade only to get annihilated at the end.

These same funds had mining shares on their books and gold/silver. That's why the gold market has been so screwed up over the last couple years IMO.. Time will tell but if i'm right, we should start seeing sanity return to these groups once these derivative traders no longer have gold and gold shares on their books. That is WHY gold became a "risk" asset.
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Old 12-13-2012, 11:30 AM   #10
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Looks like my plan to buy a chunk of physical near the end of the year might be a good bet.

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Old 12-13-2012, 11:44 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by DSAbug View Post:
These same funds had mining shares on their books and gold/silver. That's why the gold market has been so screwed up over the last couple years IMO.. Time will tell but if i'm right, we should start seeing sanity return to these groups once these derivative traders no longer have gold and gold shares on their books. That is WHY gold became a "risk" asset.
Often the trade was a pair trage long metal/short miners . If that's true we should get short covering in the miners at the end of the year.
-----
You might be right about hedgie liquidation by the way. Silver isn't able to follow gold today.
Gold is flat compared to today's COMEX open, silver is still way below it. That's typical for liquidations.
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Old 12-13-2012, 11:56 AM   #12
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SA.. we aren't talking about funds who got it right. We are talking about funds that got eaten.

I talk to lots of trading desks and the weakness in the miners is being blamed on a few funds being upside down. I heard the exact same thing last year and behold, we put in a low in the last week of December followed by a big rally. This time, it's not just redemptions but liquidations from a lower capital base. So the amount of shares for sale is much smaller but liquidity is still a problem. Don't think the commercials don't know about these funds having to close.
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Old 12-13-2012, 12:00 PM   #13
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Could this be fiscal cliff liquidation/profit taking? We are moving in to teh last week before the Christmas holiday after all.
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Old 12-13-2012, 12:38 PM   #14
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Great illustration by ZH
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Old 12-14-2012, 09:11 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by ADK View Post:
Looks like my plan to buy a chunk of physical near the end of the year might be a good bet.

do you anticipate prices dropping further?
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