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Old 03-06-2015, 07:49 AM   #1
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Currency War

In the first two months of 2015, twenty one countries have cut interest rates! No one is saying it out loud, but we are already in a currency war.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...?siteid=yhoof2
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Old 03-06-2015, 08:04 AM   #2
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If getting rid of your fiats is the way to win ..........

Who will want to hold any kind of deposit when you are punished for holding ?

I suppose it encourages velocity somewhat though, like pass the bomb parcel.

Kinda wierd that mainstream doesnt see a problem looming.
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Old 03-06-2015, 08:06 AM   #3
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Well, it's quite possible that this isn't so much a war (competitive) as a plan (cooperative). NWO holla!
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:54 PM   #4
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Chinese bearing suppliers (especially new ones) are coming to us with ever-lower prices. The lower prices in some cases are VERY LOW, I fail to see how they could make ANY money even with low labor costs.

Hints at deflation to me. A Currency War goes right alongside deflation.

Something's up. Beware!
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Old 03-09-2015, 07:13 AM   #5
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The EU fires the next salvo:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-be...090644856.html
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Old 03-10-2015, 04:12 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
...

Chinese bearing suppliers (especially new ones) are coming to us with ever-lower prices. The lower prices in some cases are VERY LOW, I fail to see how they could make ANY money even with low labor costs.

Hints at deflation to me. A Currency War goes right alongside deflation.

Something's up. Beware!
The recent, and yet ongoing, crash in commodity prices, primarily base metals, probably is the precursor to a major crash of some sort in about 2 years. Every time I have seen a metals crash I have seen an economic crash 2 to 3 years later.

Example, the metals crashed in 1998, and in 2000 or so we had the tech bubble pop.

Basically, the economy goes the way of the scrap prices 2 or so years later, either up or down. To put it another way, scrap price action is a leading indicator for every day economic action roughly two years down the road.
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Old 03-10-2015, 08:16 AM   #7
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Scrap metal prices did not lag the last crash. We were at Johnson Space Center doing a demo job at Bldg. 29 when over the course of three months the prices paid for scrap went so low that it was no longer viable to try and salvage steel. A penny a pound was the low point. Copper fell like a brick from an airplane. We lost close to 200 thousand dollars of expected revenue because of the crash. In fact, scrap prices fell and remained super low for quite a while after. Stainless steel [316] was paying 1.77 a pound at the high in early '07, then leaked lower for a while and then back up. In late fall of '08, prices plunged down to about 32 cents a pound for stainless.

For the uninitiated, guys like me that bid work with a factor for salvage, have a hard time reading forward indicators, just as backward looking indicators don't always manifest the way we think they will. Either that, or the timing is so far off that you end up eating a shit sandwich like we did.
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Old 03-10-2015, 12:41 PM   #8
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I saw the other day that iron ore in China was under $60 (per metric tonne I guess). That is way down, a few months ago it was around $70, which was way down from...

US$ is about 98.4... Very high! The EURO is around $1.07 (uh, plan a trip there?)

stockcharts.com has a practically straight-line rise of the dollar on their "Daily" chart (goes back 6 months). Starts 6 months ago at 83, now around 98, an 18% rise, that is huge in FOREX.

Ticker for the US$ at stockcharts.com is "$USD".
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