vox
Predaceous Stink Bug
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USA credit ratings (Fitch, Moody's, Standard and Poor's)
- Thread starter vox
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- credit ratings
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DCFusor
Yellow Jacket
ZH pointed out that we did just cross the 100% debt/gdp ratio the other day, even without considering unfunded mandates. Something's gotta give, but so far this has been like watching grass grow...
ancona
Praying Mantis
Go ahead and downgrade already. We deserve it.
The loss of AAA ratings by Fitch, et. al. in addition to the unilateral downgrade by S&P a while back, will force financial institutions to accept/recognize the loss of AAA status. This will in turn affect a lot of pension and hedge funds that require investments in AAA rated vehicles - causing them to dump Treasuries.
Pensions and funds that require AAA ratings are going to start running out of assets they can own. I'm not really sure what will happen once treasuries start falling. The market could get pretty crazy pretty fast.
Unless someone else steps up to the plate and downgrades ahead of the election, Fitch is giving the US one year to get ahead of this.
swissaustrian
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Treasuries have been in a bull market since 1981. This long term cycle is coming to an end anyway.
Richard Homer´s book "A history of interest rates" describes this brilliantly. Bonds tend to have ~ 30 year bull/bear cycles. It´s time for a bear market in bonds.
I hold a small 3x short position in 10 years through an ETF. I don´t expect a crash to happen tomorrow, but once it starts all hell will breake loose.
The fact that treasuries are able to be sold with yields this lows baffles me. I guess i'm just crazy for not wanting to lend our government money at negative real interest rates.
Moody's downgrading USA "outlook" while affirming the rating for now as the House looks poised to shut down the government (again).
www.cnbc.com
Moody's cuts U.S. outlook to negative, citing deficits and political polarization
The ratings agency cut its outlook on the U.S. government to negative from stable.
I found the following this morning while researching this topic:
Fitch: USA rating AA+ (downgraded August 2023)
Moody's: USA rating AAA with outlook negative (November 2023)
Standard and Poors: USA rating AA+ (downgraded August 2011)
tradingeconomics.com
Fitch: USA rating AA+ (downgraded August 2023)
Moody's: USA rating AAA with outlook negative (November 2023)
Standard and Poors: USA rating AA+ (downgraded August 2011)
United States - Credit Rating
Standard & Poor's credit rating for the United States stands at AA+ with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for the United States was last set at Aaa with negative outlook. Fitch's credit rating for the United States was last reported at AA+ with stable outlook. DBRS' credit rating for the...
tradingeconomics.com