Greece: Are we on like donkey-kong?

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It may be that the US/ IMF strategy is to undermine the euro as it will be us$ positive
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Say that Greece sets some dominos in motion and eventually Spain, Portugal and Italy find themselves at the crossroads and exit which leads to a dissolving of the Euro. The supposed plans to promote SDRs as a reserve currency (with valuations based upon a basket of currencies) would have to recalculate the weighting of currencies (and gold?) in the basket (as the Euro diminishes or is replaced altogether by Marks, etc.). I don't see where it would stop the SDR (or NWO reserve currency) train from chugging along though. It would definitely delay it though.
 
Greece ... owes its official lenders 242.8 billion euros ($271 billion), according to a Reuters calculation based on official data, with Germany by far the largest creditor.

That figure includes loans made under two bailouts from European governments and the IMF since 2010 -- worth a nominal 220 billion euros so far, of which some has been repaid -- as well as Greek government bonds held by the European Central Bank and national central banks in the euro zone.

Private investors hold 38.7 billion euros of Greek government bonds following a major write-down and debt swap in 2012 that reduced the Greek debt stock by 107 billion euros and the value of private holdings by an estimated 75 percent.

The Greek government has also issued 15 billion euros in short-term Treasury bills, mostly to Greek banks.

Here is a breakdown of the country's foreign debt stock:

IMF - Greece was promised a total of 48.1 billion euros by the IMF, of which 16.3 billion was still to come by March 2016 if Athens successfully completed the second economic adjustment program. It had serviced and repaid loans on time up to this month, when it used an obscure IMF provision to bundle together four payments totaling 1.6 billion euros for payment by the end of June. The older IMF loans carry an interest rate of 3.5 percent, higher than the euro zone rescue fund charges.

ECB - The ECB owns roughly 18 billion euros of Greek bonds, which would probably be worth a fraction of their face value should the country leave the euro zone, with 6.7 billion euros maturing in July and August.

Beyond a default on Greece's national debt, any exit of Greece from the euro zone would lumber the European Central Bank with a huge bill for lost credit. ECB President Mario Draghi recently said that Greek banks had tapped 118 billion euros of central bank liquidity. That includes 89 billion in what is known as Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA). That remains the responsibility of the country's central bank but only if Greece stays in the euro. Were it to leave, the bill would rebound on other euro countries, including Germany.

In addition about 45 billion euros of banknotes in Greece represents another liability, being a claim that the wider Eurosystem of central banks would be obliged to honor.

THE EURO ZONE - Euro zone governments gave Greece 52.9 billion euros in bilateral loans under the first bailout agreed in 2010, known as the Greek Loan Facility. Under the second bailout agreed in 2012 Athens has so far received 141.8 billion euros from the euro zone's financial rescue fund. It had been due a further 1.8 billion euros by June 30 if it met conditions but barring major surprises that is off the table.

Of the biggest euro zone members, Germany's exposure for the two bailouts totals 57.23 billion euros, France's is 42.98 billion, Italy's is 37.76 billion and Spain's 25.1 billion. That is in addition to their contributions to the IMF loans, commensurate with their respective quotas in the global lender.

Euro zone countries have already extended the maturities of their loans to Greece from 15 to 30 years and reduced the interest rates on some to just 0.5 basis points above their borrowing cost. They also granted Greece a 10-year moratorium on interest payments on the second bailout loan from the euro zone rescue fund.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/28/us-eurozone-greece-debt-factbox-idUSKCN0P80XW20150628

Bolded figures are a bit lower than what Mish had posted a while back.
 
I don't claim to know what the hell Tsipras is up to, nor whether or not the Greek parliament will vote for essentially every single demand originally made by the fucking troika puppet masters from Brussels, but if this is pushed through this weekend, expect Athens to burn to the ground and further expect the MP's to have to go in to hiding during the popular revolution.
 
Yeah, from news headlines, it really seems like the Greek leadership is schizophrenic.
 
The game of kick the can continues on IMO. The can just keeps getting bigger and bigger. How long will this ~55 billion last before they have to try and kick it again? Who knows, but one day the foot will break trying to kick that can.
 
Reading this morning a bit about the "deal" (it seems that it's more an agree to do a deal than a set thing at the moment). lol. No way this is setting Greece on a sustainable path to debt reduction. They are still toast. It just prevents a near term catastrophic economic collapse within Greece (they should have been preparing for a Grexit long ago by getting alternative payment systems in place for a new Drachma) and extends the lifespan for (most of) the current Greek political class.
 
It doesn't change a damn thing until parliament gives it their blessing. Without this, it's just words on paper. Tsipras signed his own death warrant. The only honor here belongs to Varoufakais. [sic?]
 
Yes, but a Grexit breaks the union. A Grexit opens the door for Spain, Italy and Portugal. Farage is right. Without a political union, which is impossible given the differences in cultural attitudes within the whole of Europe, you cannot have a union.
 
Looks like Parliament might just listen to the peoples mandate after all. Tsipras is looking more and more like a bitch as the day wears on. It will all come down to the vote.
 
It's still early. Plenty of time for guns to the temples intimidation before the votes are cast.
 
This goes one of two ways; Military coup or violent popular overthrow of sitting government. I simply cannot see the people of Greece allowing Germany and the European Union dictate to them any longer. The mandate was clear upon the vote at the referendum.
 
In Greece being a barber is considered a "hazardous" job, so they can retire at like 40 with crazy bennies. I don't see guys like that launching a military coup. The Greeks make U.S. libs look like Rambo.
 
shows how effective free money is in buying off any revolution.
Or conversely how quickly the pitch forks come out when the trough is removed ?

Its not a great position to be in as prime minister with the entire troika trying to destroy your resolve and knowing that standing up for the greater principle will likely cause people to suffer and possibly die as law and order breaks down as soon as it becomes apparent the trough is gone.
 
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so pack a little reserve (-;
 
So today is the big vote. We get to find out if Greece remains a sovereign state or becomes a vassal tool of the technocrats in Brussels, forever indentured as overtaxed slaves of the bankers of the new republic.
 
Hard to treat any of the news / discussions seriously.

Greece already was totally controlled by the money lenders, who now have to pick up the tab for their stupidity. Just a matter of window dressing for the moment.

Another big vote = another non decision .......

Just what are the IMF playing at though ?
 
Pure speculation, but the IMF is essentially a USA captured entity. Assuming Rickards, et. al. are correct with the push to diminish the petrodollar in favor of a SDR NWO currency basket reserve currency (when China is ready), undermining the Euro might extend the life of the status quo (with respect to the king dollar).

I really can't think of any other reason why the IMF would be pushing like they are. The Euro isn't doing anything to Greece that the IMF hasn't done to numerous other countries for decades (Argentina holla!).
 
Every time something about Greece comes on, I hear the Journey song "Wheel in the sky" start playing in my head, only the words are changed to "Turd in the bowl keeps on swirling, don't know if it'll flush tomorrow."
 
The slaves are gathering in Syntagma Square, so I wonder how long before the petrol bombs start flying and riot dog shows up? They should just get this show started already and burn parliament to the ground and show the bastards they mean business.
 
Was watching BBC America just now (while eating lunch) and molotovs and tear gas are flying around right now.
 
So, Greek Parliament voted yes on the EU deal. Young people in Greece feel betrayed by the older generation. It's a recipe ripe for revolution (though I don't think they are quite angry or organized enough for that yet).

The ECB has agreed to restore ELA to keep the Greek banks open. It should stave off complete economic and societal collapse for a few weeks:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-16/ecb-rasies-greek-ela-draghi-comments

Meanwhile, Schaeuble in Germany finally acknowledges that a 3rd bailout is meaningless without a deep haircut and he'd rather see a Grexit than give a haircut:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-16/greece-may-not-get-bailout-grexit-better-way-schaeuble-says

I don't think the fat lady has sung yet.
 
If we accept that Germany, et. al. are concerned with how what happens with Greece affects future dealings with the rest of the PIIS, I could see that they wish to impose maximum pain as a disincentive for anyone else to challenge their authority.

Maximum pain = catastrophic Grexit / Lucy pulling the football from Charlie Brown
 
I've seen much worse rioting in cities that win sports championships here in our country. I never understood why they riot when they win, but then again it's usually a bunch of drunk college age kids, so that might be the only explanation necessary.
 
So, Greek Parliament voted yes on the EU deal. Young people in Greece feel betrayed by the older generation. It's a recipe ripe for revolution (though I don't think they are quite angry or organized enough for that yet).

Same thing happened in Scotland when they had the chance to become an independent country.

The media were put into overdrive to scare the pensioners to remain tied to the UK. The younger people wanted to be free of Westminster control.
Banking and currency were the big topics rolled out in the hope unthinking Scottish people would buy into the fear.

The way they cut off funding for the greek banks was reprehensible as well as illegal. A deliberate attempt to scare Greek people into submission.
And it worked.
 
So Germany has approved a 3rd bailout sans debt relief. It's now on the IMF to approve or nix the deal. If their latest statements carry any weight, they will nix the deal. We'll see.
 
Greece needs to suck it up and walk while they still can. If they become the slaves the EU wants them to be, they will never be the same again. Taxes will eat them alive. Tourism will die and prices will become so ridiculous that no one will want to go there.

I cannot for the life of me understand why they can't see what is happening to them.
 
A few days ago I saw a report that was interesting. It was several days into the banks being closed and the limits on the ATM withdrawals. Many stores were saying the sales of high end merchandise had exploded as people were coming in and using plastic to buy expensive items as a way to have wealth on hand. No mention of PM's at least in the sense of coins/bullion, but lots of fancy purses, coats, etc. I also thought it rather ironic that a country that is drowning in debt and cut of cash to it's citizens has caused them to charge oodles of money to a credit card to obtain more wealth. It seems they really don't know how credit really works, as they seem to never have to pay it back, and people grovel to help them as they act offended if they aren't given enough handouts. Makes wonder if ANY of them have actual wealth stored for a situation like this. Not that being in that type of situation would be fun even with a good stash of PM's I would hate to thing about doing it without them.
 
So the Greek drama isn't over yet. Internally, Tsiparas is facing a rebellion in his party and it remains to be seen if they pass a third round of reforms in anticipation of qualifying for another bailout.

In the meantime, the IMF may be throwing a wrench in the Troika side of the deal:
Once again the IMF is back in the news in regards to Greece.

The IMF staff told the board of directors Greece Disqualified from New IMF Program.

Yet, Germany insists IMF be a part of the program. The reason for the latter is Germany will have to pony up lots more money if the IMF is not involved. The staff presented this message to the board this week, along with the message eurozone bailout lenders first need to agree on "debt relief".

From the above link (Financial Times) ...
The International Monetary Fund’s board has been told Athens’ high debt levels and poor record of implementing reforms disqualify Greece from a third IMF bailout of the country, raising new questions over whether the fund will join the EU’s latest financial rescue.
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More: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/imf-reiterates-greece-disqualified-for.html
 
Terms of the 3rd bailout have been approved:
... Greece and its creditors have agreed to the terms of the country’s third bailout program. Here are the details, via Bloomberg:
  • Greece’s deal with creditors provides funding of ~EU85b over next 3 years ensuring ability to meet payment of debt obligations, Athens-based Press Ministry says in e-mailed statement.
  • Deal sees 2015 primary deficit of 0.25% of GDP, primary surpluses of 0.5% in 2016, 1.75% in 2017, 3.5% in 2018
  • Govt will take initiatives in coming months to settle issue of bad loans that stand at ~EU95b, consultation group on issue to be set up with creditors, govt won’t allow sale of bad loans
  • Greek power grid operator Admie to remain public asset, there will be no break up of Public Power Corp, natural gas market to be liberalized

Over the weekend, FAZ reported that creditors had drafted an MOU which would need to be discussed with the Greek finance ministry before it could be passed to EU member countries and the Greek parliament for final approval. Generally speaking, today was the deadline to produce a mutually "acceptable" draft agreement, as Athens must make a €3.2 billion bond payment to the ECB next week in order to ensure that the Greek banking sector retains access to ELA. Now, it looks like Europe will get to pay itself back after all, assuming there are no unexpected political problems later on in the week. ...

More: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...greece-agrees-bailout-amid-rampant-skepticism

I'm not seeing mention of whether or not the IMF capitulated on the debt restructuring issue or not.
 
IMF is still out. Germany is still not interested in a restructuring because they are smart enough to do the cipher and can see this debt can never be paid back. The new number is north of 87 billion additional dollars on top of the old debt pile, and Greece says they have actual needs of 105 billion Euros, and that number keeps growing. With capital controls still in place, Greece has fallen off the proverbial cliff and all commerce has essentially stopped. They are in the death spiral. They should have told the troika to go kick rocks when Riot Dog was an internet star.
 
The Greek-Euro fiasco is a clown show...
... Germany which, according to Bild (citing EU sources) has now determined that the new bailout plan is "insufficient." ...

...

But as the German finance ministry made clear on Tuesday, this can’t "just be about Aug. 20 and an installment payment, but really about how, together with the Greeks, we can have a lasting solution for Greece."

Of course any “lasting solution” will have to include debt writedowns and the IMF has wavered on whether the Fund will be willing to participate in the absence of debt relief. ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ufficient-2y-bund-yields-collapse-record-lows
 
... the Greek parliament ... gave its approval for the third Greek bailout ...

...

In terms of numbers, the rebel faction within Syriza is now up to 42, with 43 being seen as the threshold beyond which Tsipras has no choice but to call elections. In other words the Tsipras government now hangs in the fate of just one person.

According to other sources, Tsipras may no longer even have the required minimum support to pass a confidence vote, suggesting snap elections are imminent:
...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ailout-tsipras-support-drops-absolute-minimum

As I understand it, the bailout still needs to be approved by the IMF.
 
Maybe it's just me but they seem to be having national elections every couple of weeks. Seems like that in and of itself would be fairly spendy. If these elections are being conducted on the cheap it would seem that it would be fairly easy to print fake ballots and get by cheap security to stuff ballots, if they already don't have enough people on the inside to accomplish it. I would say this is playing out like a Greek tragedy, but It's tough to feel sorry for the grasshoppers when all the ants were trying to warn them.
 
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