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Old 09-22-2014, 07:12 PM   #1
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Peru & China Point to Recession?

...

Well, maybe so!

Our company's sales are down, some 15% or more (year to date vs last year to date), and we cannot blame it (all) on our suppliers not sending us critical items for sale.

The price of copper and gold are down, so Peru gets less revenue. Gold production in Peru is down, so that much less income (I do not have figures for copper).

China is importing less copper and apparently less iron (iron ore, I saw somewhere just today) has hit a mere $80 / ton in Singapore (very low). China has plenty of copper, and has a lot of other things going on, most bad.

It' my case that maybe they are pointing to recession, it's not like Europe (ugh) or Japan (double ugh) is propping up the world economy. Nor, IMO, the USA.

"China & Peru Now Point to Recession?"

http://goo.gl/NRc3dg
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Old 09-23-2014, 07:01 AM   #2
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Hey DCRB, any idea how much Peru's economy is tied to it's neighbors Argentina and Venezuela? I wonder if the problems in those countries might be having some spillover to their neighbors.
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Old 09-23-2014, 07:35 PM   #3
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China's mandated economy and the massive, massive bubble it has formed are well known, at least in hour circles. It probably should have burst some time ago, but the rest of the world is such a basket case that China is still one of the stronger ones, sort of like us.

The timing, of course, will be everything.
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Old 09-25-2014, 01:41 PM   #4
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Products coming out of China seem to be slowing way down.

I have a current order, placed in late April, that will finally arrive here tomorrow but which was due here in mid-July. In the past I figured on 3-months from order in to arrival of product and always had the product in less than 3 months. In the future it looks like I am going to have to figure 5 or 6 months.

And apparently I am not alone. My major local competitor is quoting 6-month lead times now, too.
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Old 09-26-2014, 03:44 AM   #5
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slower delivery times suggests they are too busy ..........
So what is the cause of this slowdown ?

Have they started using foreign labour ? (-:
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Old 09-26-2014, 08:14 AM   #6
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I did notice that freight rates on the BDI have been slowly dropping back down after a brief spike in the early summer. Maybe it's just all the global tensions interfering with trade?

http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

Judge for yourselves.
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Old 09-27-2014, 12:44 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
slower delivery times suggests they are too busy ..........
So what is the cause of this slowdown ?

Have they started using foreign labour ? (-:
Best that I can tell part of the slowdown was getting enough additional freight to fill the container. And then getting enough containers to fill the ship. That was about 4 weeks of the slowdown.

Breaking the freight in LA and running all the small batches through customs took about 3 weeks.

Add in shipping across the pond, then shipping here in the States, and I finally get the product 2-1/2 months after it left the manufacturer.

Usual shipping time for the last 10 years has consistently been 4 weeks from time product left the manufacturer until I had product in hand.

Fortunately for me, I had part of the order Air Freighted at a cost of $250, and had it in hand in late July. I should have Air Freighted twice as much, but did not expect the transit time to be so long.

As far as the manufacturer is concerned, the parts were made in near record time, being done over a week sooner than expected, so I suspect he did not have much if any backlog like he has had in the past.
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Old 09-28-2014, 05:26 AM   #8
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Thank you mmerlinn.

BDI has often been quoted as a indicator of trade activity but so many attempts made to undermine the logic ( eg too many new boats coming on line ) that I started treating it like the VIX 'fear index', probably managed to keep us all guessing.
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