Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Fiat Ponzi

Like Tree7Likes
  • 1 Post By PMBug
  • 2 Post By PMBug
  • 1 Post By rblong2us
  • 1 Post By DoChenRollingBearing
  • 1 Post By rblong2us
  • 1 Post By PMBug

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 01-04-2016, 11:31 AM   #1
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
State of the "union" 2016

So, happy new year everyone. I hope you all manage to navigate the seemingly rough waters boding in 2016 with prosperity.

Been reading a bit about economic news and I'm hard pressed to find anything positive. Greece is on edge (again). China crashed the stock markets (again). Dollar is up again on the turmoil while PMs are holding the line (they are supposedly up on high volume, but dollar action makes it look like they are treading water).

Quote :
Major Currency War Coming Up?

Japan, China, the ECB, Sweden, Brazil, and Switzerland have all been involved with direct or indirect attempts to weaken their currencies.

Realistically, it's safe to include the US in that list when the Fed was first country outside of Japan to slash rates to zero.

Mathematically, it's impossible for every country to weaken its currency vs. every other currency. That basic fact hasn't stopped a growing list of countries from trying.

With the end of QE coupled with rate hikes, the US is no longer in the debasement by force camp, but if the US economy weakens, the Fed is likely to do anything.

A huge currency crisis of some nature is undoubtedly coming up. The timing of the crisis and where it starts are both unknown.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...s-attempt.html

Is 2016 "the year"?
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2016, 01:48 PM   #2
Ground Beetle
 
11C1P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North Dakota
Posts: 967
Liked: 504 times
Don't worry, in the next year barry will ban guns and allow 10's of thousands of terrorists friendly people from a friendly regions to make us even safer!
11C1P is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2016, 09:01 AM   #3
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Onwards, the currency war marches...

Quote :
Less than a month ago, and just days after the Yuan was finally inducted into the IMF's hall of reserve currency fame, the Chinese Foreign Exchange Trade System, a part of the PBOC, made it very clear that what was about to happen would not be pretty, when it announced - in a statement which clearly everyone ignored - that going forward it would index the relative strength of the CNY not to the USD but the a basket of currencies (against which the USD to which it is pegged has been soaring).

At the time we explained that "what this means is that for anyone who thought the Yuan devaluation is over, now that the currency is at the lowest level relative to the dollar since 2011, the reality is that the devaluation relative to everyone else is only just starting.
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ng-devaluation
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2016, 09:04 AM   #4
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Including this for posterity (since most everyone already knows it, but it's rare for anyone in the machine to acknowledge it):
Quote :
... former Dallas Fed governor Robert Fisher admits "We frontloaded a tremendous market rally to create a wealth effect ... The Federal Reserve is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left."
...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...r-richard.html
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2016, 12:53 PM   #5
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 2,000
Liked: 883 times
He has pretty much been the lone hawk on the fed policy panel and was moved on so they could more easily agree to keep the printers running.

As has been noted by others, funny how they seem to shift their worldview once they retire ....
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2016, 02:20 AM   #6
PM Bug Supporter
 
DoChenRollingBearing's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: SE USA
Posts: 1,275
Liked: 691 times
...

Fisher has indeed been about the only FED guy to admit any truth.

This last week saw the worst start in the stock market EVER. "They say" that as January goes, so goes the year (in stocks, a general trend that seems somewhat true). Well, let's see what's going to happen with the rest of January.

More popcorn? Yeah, I think so...
PMBug likes this.
DoChenRollingBearing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 08:47 AM   #7
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Quote :
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.
...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...sis-nears.html

Well, that sounds nice.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2016, 08:22 AM   #8
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Originally Posted by Hugo Salinas Price :
Bloomberg is back and presents updated data on International Reserves held by Central Banks, excluding gold, as of Friday, January 8, 2016, after a hiatus on this information since December 11, 2015 (for reasons unexplained).

The data for Friday, January 8, 2016 are shocking, as expected: Total International Reserves held by Central Banks, excluding gold, expressed in US dollars, amount to $11.032 Trillion dollars as of that date.

The decrease in Reserves thus amounts to precisely $1 Trillion dollars, as of January 8, 2016. This gigantic fall, of 8.31% of the maximum amount of Reserves - $12.032 Trillion dollars recorded on August 1, 2104 - took place over the course of only 17 months, whereas the growth of Reserves to its maximum figure took some 70 years, roughly since the end of WW II.

The fall in International Reserves is a clear indicator of a world-wide economic slump, which will become a severe depression.

It would be much easier to stop the flow of water over Niagara Falls, than to halt the contraction in International Reserves.

World liquidation has set in. The Piper must be paid. Growth is gone. This will be story in this epic year 2016.
...
http://www.plata.com.mx/Mplata/artic...idarticulo=280
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2016, 08:32 AM   #9
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
More "optimism":
Quote :
...
We have recently found out (not that we did not already know) through admission that many statistics have been wrong, and wrong for many years. What was reported and paraded as fantastic employment news on Friday turned out to really be a stinker as the truth turned out to be a whopping 11,000 job gain http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...-in-the-water/! What would have been considered heresy just 10 years ago is now “normal”, the Swiss National Bank has become a huge global hedge fund http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-4-eur-aapl-vr along with the PBOC http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...on-stocks-2015 and Bank of Japan. Does anyone doubt the Fed is not deeply in U.S. equity markets also? What kind of monetary policy is this? Sovereign “money” (currency) is foundationed on stock markets? Please keep in mind that global trade is crashing with the Baltic Dry Index making all time lows this past week and reports of tankers (non oil) all over the world being docked and empty. As for oil, there is such a global glut there are now fears of lack of storage space. All of this points toward a collapsing real global (depression) economy …which must service the most financial debt in the history of history!
...
http://www.jsmineset.com/2016/01/10/...all-gentlemen/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug

Last edited by PMBug; 01-14-2016 at 03:26 PM. Reason: add link
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2016, 02:55 PM   #10
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 2,000
Liked: 883 times
Good analysis and overview of what controls the POG -

http://tocqueville.com/insights/pape...pia-alchemists


..... We believe that the stage has been set for a significant repricing of gold in all currencies, including the US dollar. Ownership of physical gold outside of the financial system seems to make more sense than ever. Gold-mining equities, which have been severely depressed by the four-year decline in the gold price, should also participate. We believe that a trend reversal could prove explosive for the entire precious metals complex.

John Hathaway
Senior Portfolio Manager
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done

Last edited by rblong2us; 01-14-2016 at 02:57 PM.
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2016, 09:37 AM   #11
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Hugo Salinas Price published a follow up to the piece quoted earlier where he extrapolates on the consequences of current global economic trends:
Quote :
The current melt-down of the world's debt bubble is likely to continue in the course of the next months. The secular trend to expansion of credit has morphed into contraction and liquidation. It is my opinion that the new trend is now established and no action by any of the Central Banks (CB) that issue reserve currencies will do anything at all to reverse that trend.

Sandeep Jaitly thinks that the desperate reserve-issuing CBs - the US Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Japanese CB - may resort to programs of QEP, by which he means "Quantitative Easing for the People". This quantitative easing will mean putting money into the hands of the populations by rebates on taxes, invented make-work schemes or any other excuse to furnish the people with the famous "helicopter money", to get them to spend.

As the present crisis deepens and given our experience with the way our so-called “economists” think, we can reasonably expect such programs to be launched. Nevertheless, the present trend of world economic contraction will not be reversed by any ad hoc program. The world’s expectations - positive for growth since WW II - have turned negative. This is an event of such magnitude that no “QE” will have any effect upon the final outcome: debt collapse.

The growing fear in the world's markets arises from the recognition on the part of indebted corporations and individuals that their debt burdens are increasing due to devaluations of their national currencies. International investors are attempting to reduce their exposure. “Hot money”, invested in countries which offered higher interest rates, now wants to go home. In recent years of bonanza, foreigners borrowed some $11 trillion dollars, in various Reserve Currencies, to invest in their own countries. Of this total, it is calculated that about $7 trillion of those dollars are denominated in dollars. The debtors are now attempting to pay-off their dollar loans, and this has the effect of lowering the value of their own currencies with respect to the US Dollar, thus aggravating the situation. There is a loss of confidence in national currencies, producing Capital flight to the rising Dollar, because the countries that issue those currencies are no longer able to maintain export surpluses against the reserve-issuing countries, and are thus unable to increase reserves and are actually losing these reserves. The export-surpluses are disappearing in the "rest of the world" because the reserve-currency countries, plus China, are in an economic slump (essentially attributable to excessive debt) and are reducing their consumption of imports, thus reducing the exports of the export-surplus countries.

The loss of Reserves on the part of the countries which depend on export-surpluses for economic health makes the accumulated debt burden in the world increasingly unsustainable; investors around the world are worried that some of their assets (which are actually debt instruments, that is to say various sorts of promises to pay) may turn out to be duds, and they are trying to find ways to protect themselves - and Devil take the hindmost!

Whatever expedients are implemented, the final outcome of the unprecedented economic contraction in the world will have to be the revaluation of gold reserves, as desperate governments of the world resort to gold to preserve indispensable international trade. The revaluation of gold reserves held by Central Banks will be the only alternative for countries seeking to retain a minimum of international trade to supply their economies, whether they are based on agriculture, on manufacturing or on mining.
...
More (long): http://plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos...idarticulo=281
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2016, 08:54 AM   #12
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Reading the news right now and I'm hard pressed to find anything positive. Japan markets crashing, China still a mess, Deutshe Bank in big trouble, ECB lowering rates and doing what it can to hold Europe together but banking sector contagion fears growing anyway. Oil seems to be a big catalyst for much of the banking turmoil and it may not yet have found it's bottom (apparently a huge supply problem).

Are we watching the shit hitting the fan in slow motion right now?
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2016, 02:00 PM   #13
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
This interview with William White (former BIS adviser, now with the OECD) is too long and full of interesting comments to quote everything of interest (this is just a taste):
Quote :
... But I rather sense that an increasingly large number of central banks are actually looking at what is going on and saying “We are being asked to do something that is effectively impossible.” In a nutshell, most central bankers know that our economies do not face a liquidity problem but a solvency problem linked to excessive debt accumulation. If it’s a solvency problem, central banks can’t fix it. ...
http://www.cobdencentre.org/2015/03/...nt-at-the-bis/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2016, 02:48 PM   #14
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 2,000
Liked: 883 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Oil seems to be a big catalyst for much of the banking turmoil and it may not yet have found it's bottom (apparently a huge supply problem).
Are we watching the shit hitting the fan in slow motion right now?
Bug

I think you mean over supply problem for oil ?

Deutsche Bank will probably get everything it needs to keep it from falling over

US$ will magically find their way to everywhere, just like they did on '08 with those huge undeclared 'currency swaps' that we only found out about when it was considered safe to own up.

China can devalue 10% or not and the big hedgies will either laugh or cry but it is survivable. The CBs can simply cover any problem with shiny digits where ever and when ever they see fit.

Even if gold does go past its previous high, they can still run some kind of derivative trade that takes a while to rumble because we really do not know for certain who holds the gold.

I maintain the view that anything that can be predicted can be managed.
PMBug likes this.
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2016, 03:51 PM   #15
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
Yes, I meant oversupply.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 09:03 AM   #16
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,103
Liked: 2456 times
I posted a couple of references to Hugo warning about international (foreign) reserves. Kyle Bass opines in the WSJ on the subject:
Quote :
Investor Kyle Bass said Wednesday that China’s liquid foreign reserves are “already below a critical level,” intensifying a debate over China’s ability to keep its currency from falling.

Mr. Bass, whose Hayman Capital Management LP has a multibillion-dollar bet that the yuan and Hong Kong dollar will fall, told clients in a letter that his firm estimates that China’s liquid foreign reserves are $2.2 trillion at most. That compares with the $3.23 trillion reported by the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, for the end of January.

The comments from the Dallas hedge-fund manager highlight mounting investor unease about the degree to which the official Chinese number reflects reserves the nation can quickly use to prop up the value of its currency.
...
“The view that China has years of reserves to burn through is misinformed,” Mr. Bass wrote. “China’s back is completely up against the wall today, which is one of the primary reasons why the government is hypersensitive to any comments regarding its reserve levels or a hard landing.”
...
The 11-page letter, Mr. Bass’s first to his investors in more than two years, contains some of his most-detailed comments yet on the thinking behind his fund’s China short. Hayman, starting last year, sold off the bulk of its investments in stocks, commodities and bonds to focus on shorting Asian currencies in the biggest concentrated wager it has made since its profitable bet years ago against the U.S. housing market, The Wall Street Journal reported last month.

Hayman began repositioning its portfolio after studying China’s banking system and being stunned at its rapid expansion of debt. The firm’s analysis suggested that past-due loans would rise sharply and eventually require a huge injection by the central government to recapitalize the banks.

In the letter, Mr. Bass wrote that the assets in China’s banking system are equivalent to 340% of the country’s gross domestic product and that the PBOC would need to print more than $10 trillion worth of yuan to recapitalize its banks. The magnitude of losses by China’s banking system “could exceed 400% of the U.S. banking losses incurred during the subprime crisis,” he wrote.

China has several levers to pull, including cutting interest rates to zero and using reserves to recapitalize its banks, the letter said, but “ultimately a large devaluation will be a centerpiece of the response.”
...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/kyle-bas...vel-1455128104
rblong2us likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Contrary to popular perception, there is no "epidemic" of military-related suicides -- even though Penn STS 4 09-02-2013 01:43 PM
Revision Wipes Outs "Surprising" December Philly Fed Surge DSAbug Fiat Ponzi 1 01-10-2013 10:46 AM
Wipe Out Humans - Bill Gates - Vaccines are "Best Way" to Depopulate Planet Jay STS 46 12-05-2012 10:52 AM
EU VAT-rate "harmonization" is going to raise silver costs for German investors swissaustrian Silver Bug 14 10-18-2012 04:09 PM
Materion discontinuing 10 oz "stacker" bars branded by Scottsdale, Academy, et. al. PMBug Silver Bug 3 08-28-2012 12:59 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.