Debt Rattle Apr 9 2014: The Great Unwashed American Energy Independence

[Jay]

so much for NG saving us....

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/deb...-independence/

[11C1P]

so much for NG saving us....

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/deb...-independence/

[PMBug]

SRSRocco has posted quite a bit about the economics on shale oil. It doesn't look sustainable.

[11C1P]

Yeah, only about 20 billion barrels of oil with todays technology, we probably should just abandon it since it will run out in the next 20-50-100 years. Oh and burning off over a billion dollars worth of nat gas every year makes more sense than building a pipeline and/or adding rail capacity.

[mmerlinn]

Wasting the energy does not make sense. Even if it is not cost-effective to export it, just getting it to local markets, many of which rely on imported energy, would increase the worldwide total energy supply thereby driving worldwide prices down. In addition, it would lessen our need for imported energy leaving more available for foreign nations to fight over and Putin with a smaller carrot and stick.

Of course, the environuts would rather burn the NG than increasing capacity and employment to move it where it can be used. Talk about cutting your nose off to spite your face!

[DoChenRollingBearing]

...

US energy supplies is a big subject, and I do not pretend to have the answers.

But, clearly raising US oil and gas production is part of the equation, I do not see how we can be serious about our energy future without working on all fronts of the energy industry.

***

And I just saw that ex-President Jimmy Carter (and "other Nobel Laureates") have asked our current Nobel Peace Prize President to stop the Keystone XL pipeline...

Link for those who might think "I lie!" and/or who have a strong stomach...:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jimm...tion-1.2612326

***

Keep stacking.

[rblong2us]

Yeah, only about 20 billion barrels of oil with todays technology, we probably should just abandon it since it will run out in the next 20-50-100 years. Oh and burning off over a billion dollars worth of nat gas every year makes more sense than building a pipeline and/or adding rail capacity.

So why are serious analysts like Rude Ludekern (??) who has been in the oil extracting industry for all his career and gets respect from most quarters, saying that the depletion rates are so high the numbers do not add up ?

Why did Exxon and Shell pull out ?

Its easy to claim numbers in the ground ..........

[Jay]

So why are serious analysts like Rude Ludekern (??) who has been in the oil extracting industry for all his career and gets respect from most quarters, saying that the depletion rates are so high the numbers do not add up ?

Why did Exxon and Shell pull out ?

Its easy to claim numbers in the ground ..........

rblong2us, the cornicopians believe ANYTHING that will keep them from having to look at reality....

[11C1P]

So why are serious analysts like Rude Ludekern (??) who has been in the oil extracting industry for all his career and gets respect from most quarters, saying that the depletion rates are so high the numbers do not add up ?

Why did Exxon and Shell pull out ?

Its easy to claim numbers in the ground ..........

I have no idea who that is, but if you don't believe the oil is coming out of the ground here and has been for years, then I suspect you don't believe Australia exists either and aren't going to believe those of us who live here and see the stuff coming out of the ground. I am done wasting my time trying to convince people who just stick their fingers in their ears and scream "I don't believe it's real."

[11C1P]

rblong2us, the cornicopians believe ANYTHING that will keep them from having to look at reality....

LOL, here's the chief kid with the fingers in the ears. After getting so embarrassed in the other thread you had to start another thread to try and figure out what you were going to deny next. First you said it was "science" that it was impossible to ship nat gas via ships. Then you said it was too hard to come up with the technology even if it was scientifically possible. Then you said it just wasn't profitable enough for your tastes, so these companies shouldn't attempt it, even though they have been doing it for decades. I don't know how many times I can keep telling you science deniers that it IS possible and it IS profitable, especially if the GOVT. and the enviro-wackos get out of the way. After umpteen times it's clear you just can't accept reality and/or are a big govt. enviro-wacko yourself.

[Jay]

I have no idea who that is, but if you don't believe the oil is coming out of the ground here and has been for years, then I suspect you don't believe Australia exists either and aren't going to believe those of us who live here and see the stuff coming out of the ground. I am done wasting my time trying to convince people who just stick their fingers in their ears and scream "I don't believe it's real."

so if you don't have any knowledge of something, then you just dismiss it? Nice argument.


"There is a principle which is a bar against all information,
which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail
to keep a man in everlasting ignorance—that principle is
contempt prior to investigation."

[Jay]

LOL, here's the chief kid with the fingers in the ears. After getting so embarrassed in the other thread you had to start another thread to try and figure out what you were going to deny next. First you said it was "science" that it was impossible to ship nat gas via ships. Then you said it was too hard to come up with the technology even if it was scientifically possible. Then you said it just wasn't profitable enough for your tastes, so these companies shouldn't attempt it, even though they have been doing it for decades. I don't know how many times I can keep telling you science deniers that it IS possible and it IS profitable, especially if the GOVT. and the enviro-wackos get out of the way. After umpteen times it's clear you just can't accept reality and/or are a big govt. enviro-wacko yourself.

you are making things up. I posted an article by Karl Denninger showing the financial and scientific difficulty in shipping natural gas. "My tastes" has nothing to do with the profitability; it is not feasible at todays prices for natural gas. Perhaps you know something the majors don't know, and you could share some of your wisdom with us?

I am 55 years old. When I was twenty, the world population was estimated to be somewhere around 4.5 billion people. Now it is over 7 billion, thirty years later. In a world of rapidly dwindling resources, how much longer do you think we can continue this growth? As near as I can tell, it seems you think that if only (fill in the blank) will get out of the way, then we can restore the massive levels of production and consumption this country has known before.... (which is why I refer to people with this mindset as cornacopians).

[Jay]

I have no idea who that is, but if you don't believe the oil is coming out of the ground here and has been for years, then I suspect you don't believe Australia exists either and aren't going to believe those of us who live here and see the stuff coming out of the ground. I am done wasting my time trying to convince people who just stick their fingers in their ears and scream "I don't believe it's real."

here is a concept it sounds like you have never heard of. Maybe it is the reason why they haven't built any new refineries in the last forty years, and no one is rushing to built ocean going LNG ships (yes, of course they do exist, but not profitably).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

most Americans think oil will continue to come out of the ground forever.

moving natural gas to Europe and around the United States are two different cats.

[Jay]

forwarded this thread to my friend who's been mudlogging gas wells the last ten years, here's his response:
If we send all our NG to Europe, won't that leave us a little short?



This well I'm on in the Cook Inlet is a total fiasco. The rig generators aren't big enough to drill, so they're using a very long extension cord to 2 power plants on shore. Only problem is they can't handle the load either. These guys are hemmoraging Cash Big Time.



Company Man says This Rig's Record is 300 days ... to drill one 14,000 foot hole, that didn't make a well.



The part of the inlet that we're drilling in is a old flood plain ./ river channel.. think Mississippi Delta with shifting sand, silt ect. ... unpredictable ... so it's a crap shoot ... drill and hope you get lucky ... with Megabucks on the line on every roll ...



It's all smoke and mirrors ... a bubble just like everything else. Milk investors for every dime, then fold the tent and move on.



I'm guessing the ND guy doesn't actually Work in the Oilfield ???

he's hoping to get two more years work before it all collapses.

[rblong2us]

We have to be careful this discussion doesnt become a dumb shouting match.

I do not know what the truth is regarding oil availability going forward, so I try to read articles by people like Rune Likvern who closely follows Bakken oil activity e.g. -

http://fractionalflow.com/2013/12/23...kenzie-county/

Clearly as long as there is drilling there will be something coming out but if it costs a dollar to recover a dollars worth of energy then having lots of oil /gas in the ground is no real benefit.

Could we perhaps step back from shouting what are, in the end, no more than opinions ?

[Jay]

Yep, I'm done. I don't even care how much oil or gas there is. We had a wonderful Easter egg hunt, a zillion little kids and a lot of good food. Happy Easter everyone.

[PMBug]

... but if it costs a dollar to recover a dollars worth of energy ...

It appears that it's actually a negative investment right now, or was recently. Who knows if technology improves to change the equation, but the economics are not favorable for long term sustainability (from what I've read).

From January:

...
The forecast by the Shale Energy Industry that the U.S. will be able to grow its natural gas production for a decade at a price below $4.50 MMBtu, seems to be losing credibility as the price of natural gas has already shot above the $5 level.
...

http://srsroccoreport.com/2014-the-y...ecious-metals/

More recently:

...
According to energy analysts David Hughes and Art Berman… the Bakken and Eagle Ford have a limited number of drilling locations available, and the wells in these fields suffer extremely high decline rates. The shale energy companies exploited the SWEET SPOTS first, so the remaining locations will be less productive.

If we consider these factors, shale oil production in the U.S. will more than likely peak 2015-2016. ...

http://srsroccoreport.com/the-insani...-gas-industry/

You can find the current price here (looks like we're right at [just above] the $4.50 mark right now):

http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#jm-prices