This crossed my desk. Read it closely.
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Ferguson/Saint Louis Riot Updates
A consensus of reasonably well-informed opinion has it that the
anticipated release date of the Grand Jury finding in the Mike Brown case is on/about Monday 10 November, probably after 2PM.
National Guard, Army Reserve, FEMA and other federal agencies are deploying additional people to the St. Louis metro area in the two-three day period just prior to Monday 10 November. There does not appear, however, to be a sufficient degree of coordination among federal, state and local authorities to display a meaningful degree of learning from the race riots in Los Angeles or Cincinnati.
Accordingly, the principles that governed the pace and scale of those situations can reasonably be anticipated to govern here, too.
Local police are telling their friends and family that they'll have to be ready to be on their own for a period of several days after the Grand Jury finding in the Mike Brown case has been released. Meanwhile, as municipal leaders have been essentially silent on the subject, I know several police officers who are not only asking their wives to stay home from work and their children to skip school, but they are also getting their families out of town to the homes of relatives or to weekend places, farms, cottages at the lake, etc. This may or may not turn out to have been an over-abundance of caution, but it's wise to be aware that these measures are being taken privately as we see little meaningful advance preparation on the part of authorities.
A great many police officers are disgusted with the lack of advance preparation, and word is beginning to leak past police friends and family. Last night a message thread approved by message board moderators was posted on St. Louis Cop Talk (see below) warning citizens to be prepared to take care of themselves.
Mayor Slay has not said anything about readiness preparations for the coming lawlessness, but he did find time to complain to the media about a lawful assembly of open-carry advocates for whom no police presence was required and during which there was no violence or law-breaking of any kind. It should be clear that many elected and appointed officials are essentially trying to be neutral parties rather than siding with the law-abiding against the lawless.
Police are expecting to be overwhelmed by the coming Ferguson troubles no matter what precautions they take. We have heard from several SLMPD officers that commanders have been planning triage approach to an expected flood of calls for service from citizens in the wake of violence stemming from the release of Grand Jury information in the Mike Brown case. The word has gone out that police will not be responding to a number of types of calls that would ordinarily bring police response.
Squad leaders have been telling their officers not to do anything pro-active and to stay safe. The theme among working cops has been primarily maintaining officer safety. The New Black Panthers have promised to kill police officers and intel suggests a primary enemy tactic will be to lure responding officers into ambush kill zones via calls for emergency service. That tactic was used in the initial flare-up in Ferguson, and resulted in police not responding to a call to a residence on behalf of a civilian female who had been shot in the head at the protests.
Lawful protest activities will be used as cover for a large number of violent crimes, including not only the expected looting and arson but also score-settling among tribal rivals, robberies, burglaries and other crimes of opportunity. There are elements that are out to destabilize society, and there are many street gang crews and common criminals who will seize the opportunity to take advantage of the anarchy. Finally, a heightened threat of Islamic terror attack
is anticipated during this period of chaos when emergency response capabilities have been stretched beyond capacity.
Violence is anticipated to be widespread and essentially beyond their ability to get under control without military assistance. A period of 96 hours or so of anarchy and lawlessness without consequence seems to be a consensus expectation, beginning approximately 4 hours after the Grand Jury finding has been released. If that comes to pass, the worst of the trouble will probably not be the first night, but more likely about 48 to 72 hours later, with sporadic flare-ups throughout.
Intel suggests the violence-prone elements intend to use the lawful protesters as human shields. A body count is expected among all parties. For weeks, the enemy has been arming, recruiting people, bringing in reinforcement agitators from outside the region, laying in
in supplies, getting comms, safe-houses and fallback positions in place, and the target selection process has been underway -- scouting, probes and recon-by-force activities have been detected in far south and southwest St. Louis county as well as west of the Missouri River in St. Charles City and County. Gun stores, cell phone stores, and banks in particular seem to be high on the threat list (that makes sense, since it takes weapons, ammunition, communications gear and money to fuel a revolution).
Understand that the threat profile is dissimilar from anything that authorities in this area have ever faced before, and that few in office understand the complete ramifications of that fact. No public leader at the federal, state, or local level has been able to get out in front of this situation, and all agencies are in a defensive posture, both from a tactical perspective as well as a political perspective. That means emergency services can only react and will not be able to mount any kind of effective counter-response.
In turn, these circumstances very likely mean that many law-abiding citizens will be lumped in with law-breakers when the authorities clamp down. For some time now, the "Us vs. Them" mentality has been allowed to fester in our police departments; "John Q. Citizen"
is viewed too often as a PITA if not the enemy on the part of the authorities. We'll likely see official under-reaction followed by panicky over-reactions, in which curfews, road blocks and other extraordinary measures will have the effect of causing harm to law-abiding citizens as authorities try to "restore order." This is the pattern seen before in similar events elsewhere and because authorities here are behaving in a manner virtually identical to the authorities in those other events, outcomes will be similar.
Here is the thread from St. Louis Cop Talk:
A Safety Message for Civilians
Posted by A Concerned Cop on 10/26/2014, 8:29 pm
If you don't have a gun, get one and get one soon. We will not be able to protect you or your family. It will be your responsibility to protect them. Our gutless commanders and politicians have neutered us. I'm serious, get a gun, get more than one, and keep one with you at all times.
Re: A Safety Message for Civilians
Posted by The Moderatorsmailto:stlouiscoptalk@hotmail.com on 10/26/2014, 8:33 pm, in reply to "A Safety Message for Civilians"
We agree with and approve this message.
Re: A Safety Message for Civilians
Posted by .x-ucity on 10/26/2014, 8:53 pm, in reply to "Re: A Safety Message for Civilians"
The message is already gone out. There are folks out there that have never owned a firearm and are arming right now. Many areas are becoming armed camps. This thing has gone viral and many are in fear of their safety seeing what is happening with the benign approach the leaders are taking.
Re: A Safety Message for Civilians
Posted by Concerned Person on 10/27/2014, 2:26 am, in reply to "Re: A Safety Message for Civilians"
...Are they seriously telling you guys to sit back while they potentially burn this city down? Will they do nothing if the looting and rioting starts back up?
That's utterly ridiculous. Why are they being so soft now? All that it's doing is showing them that they can do whatever they want and get away with it. They're like children, they need to be reminded not to do something.
Are they actually telling you guys to sit back and do nothing? That's.. baffling.
Re: A Safety Message for Civilians
Posted by wayner on 10/27/2014, 6:38 am, in reply to "Re: A Safety Message for Civilians"
Again, I have a guy who works for me that's retired from LAPD.
Tonight he repeated what he said before, standing down was the worst thing they did during all the rioting 20 years ago.
If it hadn't been for armed shopowners and civilians the carnage would have been worse.
No BS from a guy who's been there and seen it happen.
G
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Do not take any unnecessary risks. Plan to alter your work and transit routines. Stock up on essentials now. Plan for both sheltering in place and for evacuating. Set a mental trigger for when you will try to get out so you don't wait too long as most people do in such situations, finding themselves unable to get out. Know where you will go and by what set of alternate routes. Avoid the main pathways, as they will likely be clogged and scenes of violence themselves. Anticipate that there will be crowded and lines at the stores and bare shelves, much as though a hurricane were coming.
Avoid trouble. If trouble comes to you anyway, be prepared to engage it and understand that you will be on your own. You will be your own first responder, and there is virtually no likelihood of timely backup from authorities who will be too busy trying to protect themselves to come protect you.
I have a lot of work to do to take care of my own situation and not much time to complete those tasks, so please forgive me if I do not respond to your emails with my usual timeliness until sometime after the middle of November.
Best wishes to you and, as ever,
Stay Dangerous-
-Pierce
Threat Response LLC
