Here we go again...

[ancona]

Well, here we go again, off to war with Iran, ostensibly to "protect" Israel and her interests in the ME, but more realistically to maintain US control. What part of this are we able to afford? What could possibly be gained by attacking Iran, except massive fortunes for those who play the right side of the oil bet and those who hold shares in the military industrial complex? While we are bombarded for three days and nights with news and tributes for Whitney Houston, a woman with incredible talent who decided to embrace crack cocaine rather than her wonderful voice, I wonder where the news is about the massive military build-up in the Persian Gulf region. We are given sound bites here and there, most of them based upon sketchy testimony and even sketchier reasoning with regards to Iran and her supposed nuclear program, but I see no substantive reporting or discussion on the matter. News columns casually mention the possibility of full blown war in Iran this spring, as if it's to be expected, and there is no public outcry.

I worry that this is indeed the end of empire for us, and it will be our own arrogance and hubris that accelerates our demise. We have abused our superpower status for too long, and the world has grown weary of us. I think that the fall of Greece and her return to the Drachma, might just be the catalyst for the complete unfolding of our entire financial system. Did you think Lehman was big? Yeah......well watch this!

 

[mmerlinn]

I don't see the U.S. getting into a war with Iran. We don't have the money nor the national will to win. And anything less than a win leaves us with mud on our face AGAIN.

But I DO see a war in the ME. Iran is forcing the issue, and WANTS war. So, there will be war. Iran will keep pushing and pushing until there is a war there. And it won't be over Israel. It will be over oil. Iran is turning off the oil tap to Europe bit by bit. Once Europe really starts to feel the economic bite of less available oil and more expensive oil, something will give.

When? No idea. But most likely within months. I would expect things to keep ramping up until Iran and its cohorts close the Hormuz Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and shuts off the oil coming from Libya. That would strangle Europe, both because of the paucity of oil and because European goods could not economically be moved to China (her biggest trading partner) and other markets in Asia.

Europe would have two choices. Die economically or break the blockade. Dying is not an option. So, look for a lightning (Blitzkrieg) attack against the hotheads of the ME, namely Iran, Egypt, and Libya. One must lose, and I don't see Europe losing.

Would the U.S. economy suffer with a blockade? Yes, but not as drastically. We don't NEED the Suez Canal to profitably ship to worldwide markets. And worst case scenario, assuming the PTB get their heads screwed on straight,is allowing our oil companies to use domestic oil again, though at a higher price. I know, I am dreaming. The PTB are not likely to do that. Instead, they will just slap on rationing, and no one will be able to get any oil without bowing at their feet.

 

[drAGonfly47]

I don't see the U.S. getting into a war with Iran. We don't have the money nor the national will to win. And anything less than a win leaves us with mud on our face AGAIN.

But I DO see a war in the ME. Iran is forcing the issue, and WANTS war. So, there will be war. Iran will keep pushing and pushing until there is a war there. And it won't be over Israel. It will be over oil. Iran is turning off the oil tap to Europe bit by bit. Once Europe really starts to feel the economic bite of less available oil and more expensive oil, something will give.

When? No idea. But most likely within months. I would expect things to keep ramping up until Iran and its cohorts close the Hormuz Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and shuts off the oil coming from Libya. That would strangle Europe, both because of the paucity of oil and because European goods could not economically be moved to China (her biggest trading partner) and other markets in Asia.

Europe would have two choices. Die economically or break the blockade. Dying is not an option. So, look for a lightning (Blitzkrieg) attack against the hotheads of the ME, namely Iran, Egypt, and Libya. One must lose, and I don't see Europe losing.

Would the U.S. economy suffer with a blockade? Yes, but not as drastically. We don't NEED the Suez Canal to profitably ship to worldwide markets. And worst case scenario, assuming the PTB get their heads screwed on straight,is allowing our oil companies to use domestic oil again, though at a higher price. I know, I am dreaming. The PTB are not likely to do that. Instead, they will just slap on rationing, and no one will be able to get any oil without bowing at their feet.

Are you completely retarded!?

"But I DO see a war in the ME. Iran is forcing the issue, and WANTS war. So, there will be war. Iran will keep pushing and pushing until there is a war there."

Your pocket will make the shipping "profitable". $200 dollar oil with Suez blocked.

The US does not need to increase domestic oil production. The USA is exporting refined petroleum as the US oil consumption is back at 1980 level. AGAIN, are you completely retarded!?

"We don't NEED the Suez Canal to profitably ship to worldwide markets."

 

[ancona]

I believe the blockade oif Iranian oil is misguided at best. They will simply ship the production to China. As for the psychological effects, we have already see the recent jump in crude prices as a result of all this saber rattling, so if they go full bore, and back Israel in some kind of a strike on Iranian nuke facilities, all bets are off. If they piss off Iran enough, they can and will shut the strait of Hormuz, which would be very very bad indeed.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

War with Iran, here's my take:

1) No land war with Iran. No US boots on the ground in Iran (except maybe Special Forces guys dropping poison gas down ventilation shafts at nuke facilities for example). Not possible to win that one. Air war certainly is possible, if we're going to drop some bombs, we might as well seal up that Hole at Qom where the Twelfth Imam is supposed to pop out of. Then the Shi'ites would have to put THAT fairy tale away...

2) ISRAEL might act. Would I have a problem with that? Yeah, maybe some. But not much. You know, the two scorpions thing.

3) EUROPE (oh, excuse me, that would be YURP) attacking the Middle East? Please. I don't think they have the cojones to do that. I know they have some small fleets and air forces, but, please... mmerlinn's interesting observation not long ago about German ambition notwithstanding. Look, Italy can't fight its way out of a paper bag. And the only reason we had a "decent(?)" ending in Libya is because of American airstrikes.

4) IF war were to come, and the Iranians took out a capital ship (like the carrier Enterprise), one of their cities would become a yummy mixture of TOAST and GLASS! Even the whack-jobs like AhMaDinnerJacket know that.

5) Russia and China? Maybe they would get involved, but I think Israel need not fear them much.

***

Bottom line? Sr. Bearing thinks that we would get an economic whacking at $200 (maybe more, sounds about right) oil. But, like ancona points out, the system is ROTTEN. When our State Run Media spends DAYS eulogizing Whitney Houston, that is yet another symptom that the end is near.

Got gold? Ready for a SHTF?

Another great thread ancona!

 

[bushi]

(...) Iran is forcing the issue, and WANTS war. So, there will be war. Iran will keep pushing and pushing until there is a war there.

...are you being serious? Like, seriously serious? That is IRAN forcing stuff, right??? Like, erm, sending drones over US, bombing US facilities, killing US scientists in car bomb "accidents"???

What else can they possibly do, if not respond with the "yalla yalla" threats?? How anyone sane can expect anything else from them? I bet US administration & intelligence is fully aware of Iran's next possible steps, and fully embraces them. Newton's law: every action causes reaction. And this whole situation is like watching children playing tic tac toe, could not be possibly clearer who is forcing whom.

Honestly...

BTW, it is not that I would be too happy if ME regimes had access to nukes, not at all, but for fox's sake, let's not talk :doodoo:

 

[KMS]

"Yalla yalla" in Arabic is "Hurry", like "Hurry up".

When I poke fun at Middle easterners I prefer to quote Matt Stone and Trey Parker, with "Durka durka Mohammed jihad."

As for the rest of this conversation, it seems to hit a note with a few of you. Having actually served in combat in the middle east I would share more of my opinion with you, but I think this conversation is already more than luke warm and doesn't need me to fan the fire.

Please keep a cool head during the discussion.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

@ KMS,

I did not serve in the Middle East, so clearly my opinion is at best only partly informed.

Actually, I, for one, would be interested in your opinions, having been over there.

 

[pmbug]

...
But I DO see a war in the ME. Iran is forcing the issue, and WANTS war. ...

Um no. Iran is being forced into a corner by US led sanctions. The Iranian leadership desperately wants to avoid war, but they also desperately want to ensure their own survival.

 

[dontdeBasemebro]

Agree that Iran doesn't want a war, I don't think they are that suicidal. From what I see, we are the ones who want a war and are trying to start one, economic sanctions being the first step. And, yes, economic sanctions are an act of war; just ask the people of Japan or those of the Massachusettes Bay Colony.

This looks just like the buildup for the Iraq war, the only difference being the substitution of an "n" for a "q". Between the horrible economy - this is a depression - and an election looming, the machine of state must create distractions to keep the population sated. Nothing better to get the sheep to rally 'round the flagpole like a foreign boogyman that must be stopped lest doom and destruction consume us all. I'm so sick of this.:doodoo:

 

[ancona]

I just posted on this very thing in another thread, and it fits so well, I simply copied it from there, and I am pasting it here:

Yeah, with the wind-down in Iraq and Afghanistan, I knew it would be but a matter of time before the Brotherhood of Darkness started feeling it in the wallet. They don't want a war, they need one. They need constant war to feed the machine. The military industrial complex is the most evil incarnation in the history of the planet. Only world-wide financial collapse can turn the fucker off right now. As rough as that would be, I think it to be preferable to perpetual war and contrived enemies. :judge:

 

[rblong2us]

the most profitable buisness in the US is armaments .........

And obviously they need to be used ...........

Agree that Iran is being maneuvered into agressive response ......

Perhaps an attack from Venezuela would suffice instead (-:

and for us Britz, our old enemy, Argentina, seems to be coming back on line.

Amazing how effective the MSM is on shaping opinion, even those of us here, who are better informed than most.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Venezuela? Naah, we'll just wait out Hugo Chavez. He has no logical & charismatic successor in the wings.

Argentina? You Brits would just go and have to kick their asses again. Argentina is SO un-serious. No worries!