swissaustrian
Yellow Jacket
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North Korea is making the news a lot lately. I lack the time to write up a long post (with links etc.) on it right now, but I wanna throw in a few points to start a discussion:
1. Anybody who has just a tiny bit of military experience knows that you don't tell the enemy what your targets are nor that you are about to attack. Kim is NOT going to attack, he's bluffing.
2. Even if he were to attack, he could not reach the US mainland via ICBMs. He could target US military bases or US allies (SK, Japan, Taiwan) in East Asia, but the US military would likely intercept any missile with ABMs.
3. No major power has any interest in an attack/war on the US: neither China which needs NK as a buffer to SK (which is a quasi US colony), nor Russia which wants at least 10 more years of peace to modernize it's military. The same applies to the Chinese military, too. That's why both of them have tried to calm the situation down. The US has no interest in a war either. Otherwise the Obama admin would already have seized on the opportunity to attack. Had Iran done and said what Kim did, we'd already be at war.
4. Therefore all the threats and symbolic actions by NK have two motivations imho:
a. Rally the domestic population and the inner party power circle behind the new leader. That distracts the poor people of NK from the horrors at home by creating an atmosphere of an imminent apocalypse.
b. Get international attention and bargaining power in upcoming negotiations on the abolishment of UN and other sanctions.
Some points that I need to do more research on to have an opinion:
i. Google CEO Schmidt visited NK lately to speak to Kim. :doodoo:
ii. Dennis Rodman's visit to NK.
iii. Internal opposition in NK.
1. Anybody who has just a tiny bit of military experience knows that you don't tell the enemy what your targets are nor that you are about to attack. Kim is NOT going to attack, he's bluffing.
2. Even if he were to attack, he could not reach the US mainland via ICBMs. He could target US military bases or US allies (SK, Japan, Taiwan) in East Asia, but the US military would likely intercept any missile with ABMs.
3. No major power has any interest in an attack/war on the US: neither China which needs NK as a buffer to SK (which is a quasi US colony), nor Russia which wants at least 10 more years of peace to modernize it's military. The same applies to the Chinese military, too. That's why both of them have tried to calm the situation down. The US has no interest in a war either. Otherwise the Obama admin would already have seized on the opportunity to attack. Had Iran done and said what Kim did, we'd already be at war.
4. Therefore all the threats and symbolic actions by NK have two motivations imho:
a. Rally the domestic population and the inner party power circle behind the new leader. That distracts the poor people of NK from the horrors at home by creating an atmosphere of an imminent apocalypse.
b. Get international attention and bargaining power in upcoming negotiations on the abolishment of UN and other sanctions.
Some points that I need to do more research on to have an opinion:
i. Google CEO Schmidt visited NK lately to speak to Kim. :doodoo:
ii. Dennis Rodman's visit to NK.
iii. Internal opposition in NK.