New U.S. recession is inevitable

[Shelby-villian]

"Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said on Friday that his research firm is sticking with the forecast it made in September: A new recession is inevitable, despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, such as job creation and unemployment, and a stock market rally."

"ECRI is one of the more widely respected firms on economic recessions, as it has never been wrong when forecasting that a recession would start, or failed to predict a recession well before it was widely accepted."

"He credited stocks' rise to central banks' infusing the global economy with money. He said the so-called velocity of money, the number of times a dollar is spent by consumers, has fallen to a record low in recent months, which he sees as another indicator of underlying weakness"

""The world central banks are printing money as never before in history," he said. "The money is not boosting economic growth, but [it's] still there and it goes into risk assets.""

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/24/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm

 

[pmbug]

"It is unavoidable. It is your destiny." /ROTJ

 

[Shelby-villian]

"New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell in January by the most in three years as demand slumped across the board, suggesting the economy started the year on weaker footing than expected.
Durable goods orders dropped 4.0 percent, the biggest decline since January 2009 when the country was still mired in a deep recession, according to Commerce Department data on Tuesday."

http://news.yahoo.com/durable-goods-sink-most-3-years-january-133408006.html

 

[pmbug]

... The December Case Shiller came, saw, and shut up all those who keep calling for a home price recovery. The Index printed at 136.71 on expectations of 137.11, with the prior revised to 138.24. The top 20 City composite was down -0.5% on expectations of a 0.35% drop. 18 out of 20 MSAs saw monthly declines in December over November, with just the worst of the worst - Miami and Phoenix - posting a dead cat bounce, rising 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. And granted the data is delayed, but the fact that we have now had 8 consecutive months of home price declines even with mortgage rates persistently at record lows, and the double dip in housing more than obvious, can we finally shut up about a housing bottom? Because as Case Shiller's David Blitzer says: "If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012.” ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-ho...ws-8th-consecutive-month-house-price-declines

 

[ancona]

Ummmmmm...................we never came out of recession in the first place.

The BLS has so completely understated the unemployment rate over the last several years that the truth has been successfully obfuscated. In Florida, one in five men are out of work. That is a fact. I get thirty people a week walking in and asking for an application. When I recently put out word in the abatement community that I needed eight guys for a three month stint at the Space Center, I got two hundred and forty or so applicants, and some of them had bachelors degrees or higher.

The housing disaster continues here as well. Home prices are still falling and foreclosures are rising still. I cannot see any sign of recovery here. We did have a tiny blip upward when the stimulus money hit the street, but it was all too short lived.

No, I think the recession has been going strong for over three years and shows no sign of abating any time soon.

 

[DCFusor]

Yes, we never came out of the last one, and actually ECRI is always very very late "predicting" recessions - two quarters of decline in GDP have to occur before they pronounce one, and there was considerable bitching about this on this one, and the last one by all the pundits. So whoever the OP quoted is blowing smoke.

I think the word here is "depression" but since so many are on the dole, it looks different and doesn't quite meet the original definition.

And as ancona says, the books are so cooked, you can't use the official numbers, you just have to look around you. Way to make yourself even more irrelevant mr Government, while the whole time taking more civil rights and grabbing more power for the state. Heck, the rights were mostly only in theory, and if you had a good lawyer, now even that theory is gone. Way to go, people.

As that guy said on bloomberg the other day - oil's going up till the economy breaks. He's an optimist - is it really working now?

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

YES to all above.

I was reading Jim Quinn (at ZH) yesterday. His article was on the lousy state of real estate (esp. commercial, due for a big fall as debts are coming due). He wrote that he travels to lots of cities in the US. And ALL of them are like mine, LOTS of vacancies and "see through buildings."

Indeed, MY OWN FAMILY is suffering as our investment income has dropped a whole lot (due to ZIRP). Our gold holdings have helped some. I am also REALLY GLAD that we have our bearing company there in Peru, chugging along nicely (for now anyway).

I especially agree with the bogus statistics we get from .gov and their bankster cronies.

 

[DCFusor]

And NAR (nat assoc realtors) who almost always print rosy numbers, then revise down next month when no one's watching - they are all doing this, but they are the most outrageous. They all count on you not paying attention to other than the original announcement...

And, like they said on ZH - low LTRO takeup - bullish, the banks aren't that bad. Big LTRO takeup, bullish, all that new money flooding things.

Heads we win, tails they lose, eh? I think we're seeing a huge flood of sub-rosa liquidity out there, and it IS bullish, but only in nominal bucks - not real ones, and in the prices of things we need - things we merely want are going to get hammered (or their profit margins will) real soon. Looks like the PPT is working overtime, as is op Twist.

Nothing matters to trading these days except knowing that and predicting when the government liquidity floods will hit. Forget fundamentals...mostly unimportant now.

Lookee what those evil speculators are doing to oil! And gee, all the ones I know are actually kinda pissed off they missed this last one (that would include myself) - it's all fiat flood this time, not like MS's little tricks just before the crash.

 

[mike]

Yes, we'll be in a recession as we make our way out of the current depression.