American Reality Check


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However, according to the latest report from Joe Foster, portfolio manager and strategist, and Imaru Casanova, deputy portfolio manager of the VanEck International Investors Gold Fund, the Federal Reserve could be closer to the end of it aggressive tightening cycle than markets currently expect.
... they said that the central bank could face growing political pressure to end its tightening cycle as rising interest rates will make servicing its debt more expensive.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, while falling, is valued at $8.8 trillion.

Quoting data from the Wall Street Journal, Foster and Casanova said that if the Fed raises interest rates to between 3.25% and 3.50%, it would cost the Treasury $195 billion annually to fund the U.S. central bank.

"As the targeted Fed Funds rate (currently 2.5%) rises above 3%, the interest it pays will exceed the revenue gained from its portfolio assets," the analysts said.

The Fed cannot "go full Volcker" raising interest rates to tame inflation because of debt service constraints. The article above focused on the Treasury Dept's finances, but there is a larger issue at play (from 2020):

Most of the $25 trillion in U.S. debt matures in one to five years and will have to be repaid by borrowing at higher rates if interest rates rise.