As promised...

DSAbug

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Earlier i promised i'd say something if I thought we'd get a correction.

IMHO, I think we will see a little pullback here that should start in the next few days (or possible even today potentially). Just a guess, but I'm thinking the 35-40% retracement of the move off the lows. 1180 was the low so where ever we finally start the correction from, I think we will get that kind of pullback. Should be over pretty quick and after that we should be good to go into year end. Just looking at my indicators, it seems we are probably a little stretched and taking back 35-40% of the move off the lows makes sense here.

I'm a trader and the opinion I express are my own. I am not making any guarantees and don't claim to be a guru.
 

pmbug

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Events in Syria might have something to say about that. We'll see.
 

DSAbug

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Events in Syria might have something to say about that. We'll see.

I'm taking that into account.. I am not telling people to sell but to temper their expectations. Syria is a big deal but we probably wont get a pop IMHO.. I am also not recommending shorting or anything. The trend is now up but we need some backing and filling.
 

swissaustrian

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I bought some short term (October) silver puts yesterday with a 22 strike, so I`m on the same page as DSA.
I still don`t believe that Obama and the EU are willing to play Russian roulette with Putin, so the Syria situation should calm down in a few days.
 

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Swiss, you might want to buy some more puts this Friday as I expect silver to top out at around 26 on/about Friday. After that I expect 8 weeks of sharp down drafts before it stops, probably in the 19/20 area.

As you well know from your own TA, there is no reason for silver to go higher than 26 on this bounce, and every reason for it to go back and test the recent lows after it stalls around 26 this week.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
 

DSAbug

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Options are a good way to play this. I wouldn't assume that the correction will last too long nor be a full on retest. I think we are starting a relatively strong move UP so the dip might not be nearly as bad as you might expect.
 

DSAbug

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The miners hit some of my short term targets already today (38%-50% retracement). The shares are really starting to trade predictably which is a good sign. Doing some buying there today. Just a trade.
 

11C1P

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Support at 24 crumbling? I still think there is one more good dip coming in the 4-5 months, that will get it down to around $20~ again where there seemed to be hardcore pushback for the most part. If it gets under 22-23 in the next month then I think it's even more likely that it will hit that low again, if only for a brief period. That's why when you can get it cheap, stack it deep.
 
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11C1P

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GOLD is the money of KINGS.
SILVER is the money of GENTLEMEN.
BARTER is the money of PEASANTS.
DEBT is the money of SLAVES.
- Norm Franz

Like that quote. I think he should add in PAPER is the money of the GULLIBLE, or something like that.

Problem for me is I have traded in all of those at one time or another! Not to mention it's pretty hard to buy any kind of house without going into debt. (the American dream involves going into debt!):flail:
 

DCFusor

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I use all of the first three. I'm proud to be a *free* peasant. Or as free as you can be in the USA. Which isn't so bad if you live in a county with 20k people, one stop light, and a government you can beat up in person - less than 10 of them altogether.
 

DSAbug

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Support at 24 crumbling? I still think there is one more good dip coming in the 4-5 months, that will get it down to around $20~ again where there seemed to be hardcore pushback for the most part. If it gets under 22-23 in the next month then I think it's even more likely that it will hit that low again, if only for a brief period. That's why when you can get it cheap, stack it deep.

I don't have a crystal ball but I think we will at least go sideways for a little while. They will find some excuse to keep it down for a little while longer. I still think 40% retracement of the move off the lows is in order.

As for stacking... If you aren't already stacked deep 13 years off the bear market lows, you have waited too long.
 

11C1P

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I don't have a crystal ball but I think we will at least go sideways for a little while. They will find some excuse to keep it down for a little while longer. I still think 40% retracement of the move off the lows is in order.

As for stacking... If you aren't already stacked deep 13 years off the bear market lows, you have waited too long.

Well, it's a term used for ammo. Where anytime you can get it cheap you stack it deep, even if you already have it. I would not tell someone not to start stacking now just because it's off it's low, or not to stack more even if they have a lot, but you certainly don't have to buy more either.
 

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We have almost completed the correction IMO.. We might only touch 1330 overnight or intraday so don't get too greedy. I'm nibbling on miners again.. If we gap lower tomorrow i'll be a big buyer.

I think the debt ceiling and budget issues are going to start being the focus over the next month so this week is probably the right time to get positioned.
 

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Is Gold Price Manipulation About to Begin Again?
Toby Conner

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42181.html

The next week or two are going to be dangerous in my opinion. If the bears can get some downside traction, traders need to get out of the way, get back to cash, and prepare to jump on board the bull at $1000 which I believe is probably the ultimate goal of this manipulation event that has been going on all year.
 

ancona

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Maybe I should forestall my plans to take a couple of 330's up to the Klondike to dig for gold....
 

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My thimble is almost full but I will try to squeeze in another gram. thanks for the tip.
 

ancona

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good plan ancona

just gotta dig in the right place :cheers:

"If it can't be done with a digger, it can't be done".

I want to [post some pics of an ultra high reach third member shear we used to "de-construct" a 135 foot tall single story structure we "salvaged" a few years ago. The equipment was CRAZY!!!:wave:
 

pmbug

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... If we gap lower tomorrow i'll be a big buyer.

I think the debt ceiling and budget issues are going to start being the focus over the next month so this week is probably the right time to get positioned.

Looking lower so far this morning. CNBC still focused on the Syria BS.
 

DSAbug

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Gold is gapping lower this morning. Stackers can keep doing their thing. traders will look for divergences and start taking the long side of the trade. I'll let you know when I think we've started to bounce. It might be pretty obvious (IE a $30 reversal off the lows) so the likelyhood of being on the sidelines is pretty high. We've had the 40% retracement so that objective has been met.
 

superhero

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You think this is the bottom... but I just place an order for a gold maple and 6 silver maples. So expect prices to drop a bit more. =|
 

DSAbug

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You think this is the bottom... but I just place an order for a gold maple and 6 silver maples. So expect prices to drop a bit more. =|

I never said this was the bottom.. We've reached my price objective and now i'm waiting for some sort of pattern to develop to signal a low.

We do have technical indicators (short term) that are showing POSITIVE divergences for gold and GDX. Those indicators can be at extremes for extended periods but I don't think that would make much sense here. The 1st step in all of this is stabilizing the price and then we will see a rally. I don't know exactly when that will be and it could be from lower prices. I simply do not know. Until we have a pattern, it's all guess work.

In order for gold to maintain an intermediate term setup that is bullish, we need to stay above the 1280 area which is the 62% retracement. Am I calling for us to reach those levels? No.. It's not necessary. I did believe we needed to get back to this zone in here though before we could start a big move. Once this downtrend is broken, I fully expect things to get much more enjoyable for the longs.

The big upside levels i'm watching are 1415 and 1440. A couple closes over 1440 and we are going to have lots of fun over the next couple years.
 

superhero

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DSABug,

Don't worry. I didn't buy based solely on your posts. I haven't bought much since the bottom dropped out. Had some extra investment money and thought it was time to buy a bit more PM.

I bought just over the $1,500 threshold so I wouldn't have to pay taxes. Still have a bit more investment money in case it drops even further.
 

11C1P

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Well just found out there is a coin show in town this Saturday. If Friday is just flat or a few cents either way, might be able to actually see some people competing for my business as opposed to the one coin shop in town that basically just says "go buy it online then" if you balk at any of their mark ups.
 

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I never said this was the bottom.. We've reached my price objective and now i'm waiting for some sort of pattern to develop to signal a low.

We do have technical indicators (short term) that are showing POSITIVE divergences for gold and GDX. Those indicators can be at extremes for extended periods but I don't think that would make much sense here. The 1st step in all of this is stabilizing the price and then we will see a rally. I don't know exactly when that will be and it could be from lower prices. I simply do not know. Until we have a pattern, it's all guess work.

In order for gold to maintain an intermediate term setup that is bullish, we need to stay above the 1280 area which is the 62% retracement. Am I calling for us to reach those levels? No.. It's not necessary. I did believe we needed to get back to this zone in here though before we could start a big move. Once this downtrend is broken, I fully expect things to get much more enjoyable for the longs.

The big upside levels i'm watching are 1415 and 1440. A couple closes over 1440 and we are going to have lots of fun over the next couple years.

Gold went below $1300 today which is a potentially worrisome sign for those looking for confirmation of numer-illogical superstitions but good news for bargain hunters.
 

ancona

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We still have Op-EX to look forward to. I wouldn't be surprised to see silver dip under twenty for a short time. After that, all bets are off. In addition, we have to wait until 2:00 to see what the Fed is going to do. They might just say something to make metals soar.
 

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Chill guys.. It's really simple.

A close over 1440 and this correction is over with. A close below 1280 and we are going to have to sit a while longer before our time comes.

A couple observations..

CNBC had the CEO of goldman sacs on yesterday morning. He made sure to mention that he thought gold was headed under $1,000. So goldman was buying.

GDX displayed amazing volume characteristics on a HUGE move to the upside. Over 100 million shares traded yesterday which is a RECORD. Very bullish REVERSAL from being down 2% and closing up over 10%. MINERS WILL LEAD. GDXJ also had a 15% swing and an outside day.

Some mining companies have already taken out their Aug/Sept highs. MUX and AGI for example. That is very bullish.

The dollar was absolutely destroyed yesterday. We have very little room left to the downside before we are breaking below the 2012 lows.

We now have the german elections and the debt ceiling debate redux coming up over this next month. Capital for this trade should have already been deployed by now. If we get some weakness over the next week (standard reflex after a sharp move) then take advantage of it. Clearing 1440 the momentum guys should be all over gold
 

ancona

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DSABug,
What do you see going down with regards to silver. It is the primary occupant in my stack. With all I have read about the slowdown in china and the overall glut of solar panels [a huge industrial consumer of silver] and the war sabers rattling, silver seems to be particularly vulnerable right now.
 

DSAbug

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DSABug,
What do you see going down with regards to silver. It is the primary occupant in my stack. With all I have read about the slowdown in china and the overall glut of solar panels [a huge industrial consumer of silver] and the war sabers rattling, silver seems to be particularly vulnerable right now.

silver looks stellar. The short term downtrend has broken already for it but we aren't out of the woods. $25 is the equivalent of 1440.

I think most of the dialog we are constantly hearing usually consists of chirping by people trying to figure out what the hell is going on. The reason silver was smashed was simple. Too many people were speculating in it so the market flushed them out. All the stories are nice and all but they are going to keep you from making the right choices at the right time.

You might remember me stating...

Gold is gaping lower this morning. Stackers can keep doing their thing. traders will look for divergences and start taking the long side of the trade. I'll let you know when I think we've started to bounce. It might be pretty obvious (IE a $30 reversal off the lows) so the likelihood of being on the sidelines is pretty high. We've had the 40% retracement so that objective has been met.

So yeah.. If fear or greed kept you from buying, you have a worse price now. If you are just riding this bull market and are fully invested (which I find no problem with) then just watch.. It's going to be a year or two before I will even consider lightening my stack. I also anticipate it will be from much higher prices. Have an exit strategy guys. I honestly do think we will reach a mania phase in gold and you'll want to be rotating into something else.
 

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Chill guys.. It's really simple.

A close over 1440 and this correction is over with. A close below 1280 and we are going to have to sit a while longer before our time comes.

We seem to be getting closer to 1280 than 1440 today. :shrug:
 

pmbug

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Looks like we broke through $1320 and $22 again. Will they hold?
 

ancona

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I hope they hold on one hand, and on the other, I hope we break below 17 for a day or two. I would like to pick some more bling bling, but am hesitant to do so until I see a more stable trend. I'm sure I'm not alone on this.
 
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