Gold-Silver Ratio

BigJim

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86.5/1 as of this post. Anyone doing any trading?
 

pmbug

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I don't generally sell gold to buy silver, but when I'm looking to buy more metal, I do consider which is a better value (amongst other considerations).
 

TerrenceK

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I've never sold gold to buy other metals either. I generally do it the other way. Have you had a lot of success with this, Jim?
 

BigJim

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I've never sold gold to buy other metals either. I generally do it the other way. Have you had a lot of success with this, Jim?

I did some trading Ag for Au when the ratio was in the mid 30's/1, wish I'd done a lot more. Can't complain, did real well.
 

BigJim

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82.72/1. Below 83 for the first time in a while.
 

11C1P

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Maybe when it gets under 50:1 I'll think about buying gold. I'm also curious about which one will get to $100ozt first, silver or platinum. :paperbag:

.
 

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my gold / silver ratio remains a depressing subject as I purchased 50 kg of silver when it was approx double the current price ..........

However tonights gold / dollar ratio has me smiling

Are we going to blast through $1300, or will it need to be choreographed a bit to please the masters ?
 

pmbug

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Really odd to look at the 24 hour gold and 24 hour silver charts and see such an inversion. Gold jumping up and silver going down steadily all day.
 

rblong2us

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Ah yes
a silver ( or gold) bug will know that any fall in price is because the controllers know they cant hold it down much longer, so they are giving it one more beatdown, using everything they have ..........

Back up the truck Donald (-;
 

pmbug

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Silver definitely feels cheap at sub $15.
 

pmbug

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There seems to be so many risk factors in the global markets these days. It's amazing to me how PMs don't appear to be getting a safe haven risk insurance play right now. And given news about slowing mining/production, the PMs (both gold and silver) just seem like a bargain for long term investing.
 

rblong2us

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and again this morning 90.08.

with POG the highest its been in UK£ since October 2012 (-:

And a clear move through $1350. Will it hold this time ?

It starts to feel like there might be enough head of steam to push through the overhead resistance and finally move beyond the sideways trading pattern of the last several years.
 

BigJim

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and again this morning 90.08.

with POG the highest its been in UK£ since October 2012 (-:

And a clear move through $1350. Will it hold this time ?

90.78/1 for the weekend. Gold closed $1340 & change.
 

pmbug

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The ratio has fallen from 92.5 to 90.5 since this morning. Silver moving up and gold down a bit. Gold looks to be more sensitive to moves in the dollar (USD index). Silver doing it's own thing...
 

BigJim

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The ratio has fallen from 92.5 to 90.5 since this morning. Silver moving up and gold down a bit. Gold looks to be more sensitive to moves in the dollar (USD index). Silver doing it's own thing...

Ratio touched in the upper 89's for a short time this AM.

:popcorn:
 

rblong2us

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Another all time high yesterday for gold in GB£ ( gotta love Brexit ) and my profit / loss statement from Bullionvault showed -
+50.16% for gold
-52.98% for silver.

so a further doubling from here for silver to reach break even ..........

luckily my gold / silver ratio is approx 12:1

I guess if the ratio is going to revert to mean at some point, then selling gold and buying silver at this time makes sense.
 

pmbug

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12:1 gold to silver sounds real nice right now. Well done!

Edit: GSR around 88 now. Silver still rising nicely.
 

pmbug

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GSR about 86.5 this morning. Silver is having a nice run...
 

pmbug

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Silver had a nice pop. GSR down to 83 this morning.
 

rblong2us

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Silver up 25% in a month?
It's been a helluv a wait for it to get going.
Let's see if the predictions for silver to move further and quicker than gold play out...
 

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Gold appears to be having trouble breaking through the $1,520 area for good. Silver looks like it could run a bit more, but it's so volatile, so who knows....
 

pmbug

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The G/S ration hit 100/1 earlier today. It's bounding around a bit, but still in the neighborhood. Silver doesn't seem to be catching the same bid (yet?) as gold with the current market panic(s).
 

pmbug

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That seems crazy. Of course, premiums in the physical market are whack right now, so a G/S ratio on physical isn't quite the same. It's more like 91ish by my crude calculations based upon premiums I've seen yesterday and today.
 

pmbug

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...
“Silver [is] the ‘tagalong’ awaiting a growth inflection point or catalyst,” Scotiabank commodity strategist Nicky Shiels said in a report last week. “[The metal] will begrudgingly tag behind any gold rise and should continue to underperform in the near-term until the growth inflection point.”

The gold-silver ratio is now at 113, after rising to an all-time high of 125 in March. This means that it now takes 113 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.

The needed catalyst to push silver prices higher is lower supply and higher demand, but improved supply-demand fundamentals can only appear with time, according to Scotiabank.

“Fresh catalyst emerging with 1/3rd of global supply down, but fundamentally requires years of deficits to substantially draw down inventories,” Shiels wrote. “Gold/silver ratio to remain in a less bullish uptrend as macro markets navigate from late cycle era to recovery period.”
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-...-until-this-catalyst-kicks-in-Scotiabank.html

Scotiabank analyst thinks there is too much silver supply for silver to catch up to a more normal valuation relative to gold - at least for the near term.
 

pmbug

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BoA analysts say silver also will continue lagging behind gold until the economy shakes the covid19 headwinds. They expect silver to take off when industrial demand perks back up.
...
It appears that Bank of America is not just bullish on gold. In a report published Wednesday the bank ’s commodity analysts said that they see silver prices pushing to $20 an ounce within the next 12 months.

“Our supply and demand model implies that silver prices below $15/oz are hard to justify,” the analyst said in their report.

May silver futures last traded at $15.40 an ounce, up 0.4% on the day.

The analysts said weak industrial silver demand, which represents roughly half of the market, is the reason why silver prices have significantly underperformed gold. Industrial demand has fallen off a cliff as the global economy faces its worst downturn since the 1930s ’ Great Depression.

Currently, Bank of America economists are expecting the global economy to contract 2.8% this year. Weak industrial demand could end up pushing silver demand to its lowest level in 2004, the commodity analysts said.

However, although the growth outlook appears dismal, the analysts said that there is some hope that manufacturing will bounce back as nations recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-...-towards-20-in-12-months-Bank-of-America.html

I will note that while the analysts are quoted talking about industrial demand, the report doesn't mention any talk about mines shutting down or global production taking a 40-50% hit.
 

pmbug

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Silver seems to have caught some wind since yesterday.
 
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