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“While even a brief shutdown would likely have negative impacts given the sheer volume of goods that come through these ports, our recent conversations with our companies suggest that they already have contingency plans in place, so the nearterm headwinds would likely be minimal,” Ciccarelli wrote. “That said, if the strike goes on for an extended period and the delays/backups compound, it’s likely that companies will begin to face higher logistical and supply chain costs (higher container rates, increased ground transport costs as stem miles increase, etc.) as well as potential product shortages.”
“In that scenario, we would expect many of our companies to face both cost, and potentially sales headwinds, until the strike is resolved and container backlogs are worked through,” the analyst added. In Truist’s view, the heaviest negative impacts would likely be on Dollar Tree Inc., Five Below Inc., Target Corp., Best Buy Co. Inc. and Walmart Inc.. However, Ciccarelli notes that the strike would likely be “a headwind of some level,” across the board.
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The strike could affect the U.S. economy by as much as $3 to $4 billion a day, according to Jefferies, while J.P. Morgan estimated that the ports shutdown could have an economic impact of $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion per day. However, some of that would be recovered over time after a return to normal operations, according to J.P. Morgan.
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