Silver Market 260609

[pmbug]

Jun 9 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $75.61
SGE Spot $75.48 (~$7 LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $69.95
LBMA Spot $68.54
COMEX Jun26 Futures $68.82 (even with LBMA Spot @ last quote)
IBJA PM Spot $68.21 (~$0.30 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened and closed ~$68.50, drifted lower over night and has recovered back to ~$68.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:24 : $68.54

Jun26 = =$0.00 vs +$0.06 Previously (spot @ 04:30 : $68.82)
Jul26 = +$0.05 vs +$0.17
Aug26 = +$0.35 vs +$0.42 (spot @ 04:06 : $68.28)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread hits zero. Jul26 spread crashes a bit. Spreads do not offer an arbitrage profit for sending COMEX silver to London/LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $86.51 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $70.55)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $82.30 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $69.95)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.63
IBJA PM spot : $80.24 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $68.21)

The IBJA spot discount to LBMA spot was >$1 ever since May 13 or so when India imposed higher import duties and outright import restrictions. The IBJA spot is now normalizing with LBMA spot. The discount is just ~$0.30 this morning.

China ​

SGE $75.48(no VAT)
SFE $75.61

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE premium to SGE = $0.13 (from $0.02)


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Jun 9 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.3M
COMEX382K
SFE943K
SGE1.4M

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~5.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 160d (from)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 5)

COMEX 6-5​

115K ozt (3.6t) in StoneX [R]

497K ozt (15.5t) from Asahi (406K), Brinks (30K), Delaware (12K), MT&B (50K)

ozt moved between [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 318.8M ozt (84.9M [R], 233.9M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 322K/day DEPOSIT (from 540K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,110
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 10,550,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 583,663.29

Jun withdrawals are currently ~5.5% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 382K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate as a 711K ozt deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Tomorrow a huge 1.4M ozt deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window and it is possible the deposit rate could flip back to a withdraw rate if there is a decent sized net withdrawal posted. We'll see.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises from 0.39% to 0.41%

Interactive Brokers finally reports (minimal) activity for yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.5M shares
JPM:1.3M ozt (42.2t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.9047=

The spot price of silver drops and SLV adds vault stock. Normally SLV sheds vaults stock as the price drops. London vault stock is back to 402M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

943K ozt (29.3t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 29,883,150 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 187K/day (from 15K/day DEPOSIT)

Run rate = 29.9M / 187K = ~160 (working) days(~8 months)

A 943K outflow replaces a 63K inflow in the 5 DMA window and the deposit rate flips back to a withdrawal rate.

SGE Run Rate​

1.4M ozt (44.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 30,605,260 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 2.2M/week DEPOSIT (from 2.5M/week DEPOSIT)

Run rate =

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260608.9006/