The day's price movements

rblong2us

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So what happened ?

I went out to play today and came back to a big drop in pog ..........
Cant triust anyone to look after things these days )-:
 

pmbug

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So last Friday, I read this article in the morning:

Some of the world’s wealthiest people have sold more than $3 billion of stakes in their major holdings since August, diversifying their fortunes as stock markets rebounded. ...

... In the week ended Sept. 11, insiders disclosed selling $473 million of shares, while buying only about $9.5 million.
...

and I think, hmmm... sounds like smart money is concerned about the future.

Then the news of RBG passing happens after markets closed for the weekend. I think this article sums it up:

Markets kicked off a new trading week in a risk-off mode, with the U.S. dollar rising, stocks selling off and gold prices plunging. It’s hard to point to just one single reason why this is happening, notes BBH Global Currency Strategy. “[There are] rising viral numbers in Europe, rising hard Brexit risks, softening recoveries in the major economies, rising political risk in the U.S., and a negative report on the global banking sector. Some of these drivers have been present for weeks, if not months, but the confluence of so many negative factors has been too much for equity markets to ignore,” says BBH. The big new political headline the markets are digesting is the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday, which is creating a lot of volatility. “The most direct impact is likely to be further delays in the stimulus package. Indeed, we think it has become less likely that a deal comes before the election, as the Republican-led Senate appears to be marshaling all its forces now into pushing through a replacement for Justice Ginsburg,” BBH writes. The U.S. dollar, in the meantime, is making gains with the DXY last trading at $93.60, up 0.73% on the day. “With so much uncertainty, no wonder the markets are taking some profits now and moving to the sidelines with 43 days left until the election.”
 

rblong2us

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all those negative factors listed and significant share selling by insiders should be supportive of metals ...........
Starting to look like control has been regained )-:
 

pmbug

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Looks like Citibank agrees with you.

After dropping to a two-month low this week, gold could climb back above $2,000 an ounce and hit new record highs before the year-end as the U.S. election risk remains underpriced in the precious metals space, according to a report published by Citigroup Inc.

Uncertainty surrounding the November 3rd U.S. election, including potentially contested results, could “be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,” Citi analysts wrote in a quarterly commodities outlook.
...
Considering all the uncertainty around the election, Citi noted it could be “an extraordinary catalyst” for gold during the fourth quarter.

“That is one reason why we expect gold prices to hit fresh records before year-end,” Citi said.
...
 

pmbug

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Negotiations on a second stimulus bill for the USA are all but dead. News hit this afternoon and markets are tanking. Curiously, the dollar index is spiking. Not sure why. The economy is going to redline without support.
 

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Looks like the metals are on sale again even as the dollar is slumping. US stock market is just stupid drunk right now. At some point reality is going to reassert itself I think.
 

rblong2us

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Just seems wrong that crypto's and bitcoin in particular, are behaving as gold should be ......
If its so important to hide the debasement of fiat, why are the crypto's not getting some 'special attention' too ?
 

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Maybe because their is no bullion bank cartel in control of the trading mechanisms?
 

rblong2us

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And crypto's take on the role of gold ............

I'm still 'all in' though and happy with the current price, which is still better than when I sold some in March for project funding.
 

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Decentralized financing is all the rage now, and not just with BTC. The trend seems to be giving crypto more wind in its sails, besides all the reasons which already existed.

I'm watching one called Aave now.
 

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Seems like gold and silver are trending back up again. Can gold break through $1900/toz for good this time? Investment markets are soooo irrational these days.
 

rblong2us

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Gold moved quickly and smoothly to $1940 today.
Its not uncommon for month end / year end to get beaten down, so possibly the suppression will lift slightly for a few days.
As to where they want pog, its been $1900 for a while ......
 

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... Goldman Sachs analysts, in a research report published Tuesday, reiterated their bullish forecast for silver.

The bank sees prices rising as high as $33 an ounce as U.S. President Joe Biden moves forward with a plan to increase alternative renewable energy production.
...
 

rblong2us

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It may not need anything like the buying that GS suggests
If a relatively small number buy paper promises and insist on delivery, the manipulation is fully revealed .....

However we've seen this kind of action in gold and so far, they have covered it.
The controllers aren't stupid and will have brainstormed multiple strategies to see off the reddit crowd.

Now where is that black swan ?:cautious:
 

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...
Thursday, in its annual report, the LMBA said that 38 market analysts participated in this year's forecast survey. Gold prices are expected to average $1,973.80 an ounce, up 11% from the 2020 average. However, the outlook is only a modest 4.5% increase compared to the average price seen in the first half of January.

"Gold is expected to be subjected to a high level of volatility in 2021, with the widest forecasts predicting a high/low range of $1,192 compared to $780 in 2020," the LBMA said in the report.

With the gold market expected to be relatively tame through 2021, the LBMA said it expects all eyes to be on silver. Precious metals analysts expect silver prices to average $28.50 an ounce this year, an increase of 38% from the 2020 average price and up 8% from the average price since the first half of January.

The volatility seen in the silver market this past week could foreshadow the price action through the rest of the year.

"Silver is undoubtedly the star of the show," the LBMA said. "Silver is forecast to be the best-performing metal in 2021, but with a trading range of $38.5, nearly five times its range forecast last year, it looks as if it's in for a real rollercoaster ride in 2021."
...
 

pmbug

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Jpow/Fed letting inflation fears run a bit is causing a bit of market turmoil. Metals are on sale again.
 

rblong2us

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Gold a year ago was $1500 and now is around $1700

That pesky bitcoin was $5000 a year ago and now is around $55000

Phew

Glad Im all in then :cautious:

The fact that I am up from my initial purchases ( in 2012 ) is still somehow comforting ............
 

rblong2us

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And no one even commented .....

Financial year end / 1st quarter end and gold/silver had to be pushed down below that all important number so the short big boys could cover their asses

And they didnt even have the decency to keep it down so it could look like there were other technical reasons for the price movements.

I reckon a pretty simple buy/sell strategy would to be to buy just before quarter end and sell a week or so after......
 

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Looks like the metals are breaking out a bit (finally). I guess we'll see if gold can power past 1900 or even 2000 and make new all time highs. Silver has a good bit of room to go to get back to all time high territory.
 

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CME lowers bond margins for gold, silver, platinum, and more

... the margin for gold is down 10% and silver margins have dropped down 9.2%. ...

On the intraday chart below you can see that the price was moving higher well before the news hit the wires. When the official release did take place by the time the major publications caught wind of the story it gave gold futures a second wind to push higher. This morning the momentum has continued and $1820/oz has been breached. One thing that is clear from the volume histogram is the fact that the average volume in the European session is higher than usual.

My first (cynical) reaction was that TPTB must be embarrassed by the disconnect between physical and paper shiny. Then I considered this might be a ploy to make shiny more attractive vs. cryptos (which I think is raising legit concerns amongst the money peoples).

But then it occurs to me that this is more likely an effort to keep the paper markets from having a disorderly disconnect - to avoid a complete breakdown/failure. Could this be portending a long awaited short squeeze?
 
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