Forgive my ponderings...
Things to do NOT affect the value of an ounce of gold:
1) Money supply: No matter the price in fiat currency, gold value does not change
Things that affect the value of an ounce of gold:
1) Fear indicator is positively correlated
a) using VIX as indicator:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/commodity-crash-and-sp-500-vix-correlations
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...en-gold-vix-has-room-to-grow-good-buy-signal/
2) Ratio between Total gold ounces mined and current world population
a) Dropping worldwide production, possible peak in 2000:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/peak-gold-gold-production-collapse-continues-in-south-africa/
b) While the rate of increase is dropping, worldwide population is still rising:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=24
Humm, ignoring the fluctations due to changes in money supply or short term fear effects, the underlying value of gold may increase simply due to the population increasing faster than the total suppy of mined gold increases.
:shrug:
Things to do NOT affect the value of an ounce of gold:
1) Money supply: No matter the price in fiat currency, gold value does not change
Things that affect the value of an ounce of gold:
1) Fear indicator is positively correlated
a) using VIX as indicator:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/commodity-crash-and-sp-500-vix-correlations
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...en-gold-vix-has-room-to-grow-good-buy-signal/
2) Ratio between Total gold ounces mined and current world population
a) Dropping worldwide production, possible peak in 2000:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/peak-gold-gold-production-collapse-continues-in-south-africa/
b) While the rate of increase is dropping, worldwide population is still rising:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=24
Humm, ignoring the fluctations due to changes in money supply or short term fear effects, the underlying value of gold may increase simply due to the population increasing faster than the total suppy of mined gold increases.
:shrug: