Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE and SFE) gold and silver

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swissaustrian

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First of all, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is NOT equal to the Pan Asian Gold Exchange (PAGE) ( http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/page-pan-asian-gold-exchange-coming-june-2012-a-12/ ) which is located in Kunming City.

Here is a summary on the operations of the SGE: http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/sge_brief/sge_overview/7216.htm

Recent news, they're trying to compete with the LBMA:
Shanghai Gold Exchange eyes OTC trading
* SGE plans to launch OTC trading on interbank market
* Gold ETFs, palladium in early planning stages
* Aiming to extend night-time trading this year (Adds details)
By Fayen Wong and Lin Qi
SHANGHAI, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) plans to launch over-the-counter gold trading and is in talks with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to conduct these trades via the interbank market, an official from the exchange said on Monday.
The exchange also has plans to start exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) for gold to tap rising demand in China. It was also considering rolling out palladium contracts, although preparatory work for both products was still in the early stage.
"We are working with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to study ways in which we can work together and start an interbank trading market for gold, that will be conducted outside of the exchange," Gu Wenshuo, president of general office at the SGE, told Reuters.
The Chine Foreign Exchange System (CFETS) is a unit of the People's Bank of China which provides trading systems for foreign exchange, bond, yuan lending as well as exchange rate and interest rate derivatives.
An interbank market is a wholesale market where banks trade between themselves in order to remain liquid and meet customer demands for deposits, withdrawals, and borrowing for many different purposes.
Having an over-the-counter (OTC) market would allow clients to trade in large quantities that far exceed the SGE's existing capabilities.
Currently, members who need to trade hundreds of kilograms of gold current have to break up their trades into numerous lots, which prohibits them from fixing a favourable price since such large number of transactions could distort prices.
Gu said rolling out OTC trading via the interbank market platform would be quiet easy, since the exchange's members are already familiar with the gold market and trading among themselves through such a platform.
The existing interbank trading platform would only need minor system upgrades to accommodate a new product, he added, but the SGE was still trying to iron out specification and delivery.
"We are working with market participants and looking at how we can resolve the warehousing and delivery issues," Gu said. :doodoo:
Unlike trading on the SGE, which standardises the specifications of gold bars and location for delivery, the characteristics of gold bars for delivery may differ in an OTC market, especially since some of the smaller Chinese banks are not SGE members.
NIGHT-TRADING, ETFS, NEW PRODUCTS
SGE, the country's only physical precious metals exchange, also said it was aiming to extend its night trading hours this year to meet growing client demand.
The exchange may either extend its night trading for gold and silver contracts by an hour to 03:30 a.m. local time (1930 GMT) or include Friday in its night trading hours.
Gu said the exchange was also looking at launching new products, especially gold ETFs, as such products have seen explosive demand from investors overseas.
When asked if the exchange was also looking to introduce gold options, Gu said the conditions were not yet favourable as China's overall financial market was still relatively immature.
The SGE is the world's largest spot gold exchange and the total volume of gold traded in 2011 rose 23 percent from the preceding year to 7,485.5 tonnes. Total transactions on the exchange, including silver and platinum contracts, jumped 120 percent to 4.44 trillion yuan ($704.92 billion). ($1 = 6.2986 Chinese yuan) (Editing by Miral Fahmy)
http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Shan...rbank_market/ea87dd93f16c92bb3aed440722d35d98
 
Asia seems to be getting more and more aggressively in to precious metals. When you turn on 1.3 billion peasants to the idea that they can protect the value of their money by purchasing gold and silver.......watch out!
 
I am curious what people think about this whole paper vs physical theory. Seems like the freegold people Another et al seem to talk a lot about this. Perhaps I don't understand it well enough. I spoke with a pretty knowledgable person who works with the LBMA everyday who has all his savings in gold and he seemed to dismiss these conspiracy theories. Saying there is a spot mkt and futures mkt, that is how commodities trade. so you can buy or sell spot and take ownership immediatley. Just curious what you guys think.

Also where do these people plan to sell their gold that they say will be priced differently than what is on the compt screen. To whom will they be selling? And why would the person take a different price than is on kitco etc?
 
See NNL's "tail wagging the dog" explanation in the PAGE thread (1st post, 2nd & 3rd quoted paragraphs).
 
I am curious what people think about this whole paper vs physical theory. Seems like the freegold people Another et al seem to talk a lot about this. Perhaps I don't understand it well enough. I spoke with a pretty knowledgable person who works with the LBMA everyday who has all his savings in gold and he seemed to dismiss these conspiracy theories.
Does he have his gold in an unallocated LBMA account?
Because then it's just a bunch of :paperbag:

 
SA,
Can you post a better video? The audio on that one is absolutely abyssmal. I listened to about the half-way point, then it sort of gets really quiet, and you can't really hear. Although I followed this on GATA, I can't remember seeing this particular video with AD.
 
SA,
Can you post a better video? The audio on that one is absolutely abyssmal. I listened to about the half-way point, then it sort of gets really quiet, and you can't really hear. Although I followed this on GATA, I can't remember seeing this particular video with AD.
I'm using headphones, maybe that will help you.
I don't have a youtube account and I'm not used to edit sound/videos, so that's the best advice I can give you :flushed:
 
my question though is if this disconnect develops between 'paper' and physical gold prices where and to whom will you sell your gold and who will determine the price? How will you know what the mkt price is?
 
my question though is if this disconnect develops between 'paper' and physical gold prices where and to whom will you sell your gold and who will determine the price? How will you know what the mkt price is?
Local bullion dealers and the internet will set prices. The (fraudulent) exchanges will be bypassed. Markets always find pricing mechanisms.
It happened in 2008 by the way: The silver price at the COMEX fell down to arround $9. Dealers arround the world weren't offering silver for less then $10.
I have a contract with one of Switzerlands biggest dealers that he has to sell me silver (and gold) at COMEX spot (+ a fixed premium depending on the amount I order) whenever I call. So I'm prepared to take advantage if/when paper/physical spreads emerge once again.
 
yeah i guess that is possible. although since these current price providers are profit seeking organizations i think they would find some way to get closer to real prices or risk their business disappearing. The profit motive may push them back in line.

On a different note was curious what you guys thought about Buffett's comment in his recent letter on bond, gold and stocks. specifically his pt that you need new money to come in to buy the new mining supply and scrap every yr just to maintain equilibrium prices. as a result as prices go higher you need an ever increasing amount of money to just maintain the price forgetting about appreciation.

I disagreed with most of what buffett said but I did feel like this pt was noteworthy. Curious any thoughts on it.

Thanks
 
When the paper markets disconnect, price discovery for metals will happen the same way it does for most everything else. Supply and demand will drive the price that owners are willing to sell and buyers are willing to pay.

On Buffet's point, silver demand has far exceeded global mining output for many years now from what I understand. The world has been eating away at above ground reserves and this is part of the story that excites the pumpers about it's future potential.

Also, an "ever increasing amount of money" seems to be the whole problem driving precious metals in the first place. Central banks are locked in to their ZIRP and QE gameplans.

However, the precious metals markets are super tiny - puny if you will - in comparison to the money trading in other vehicles. Buffet's comment belies an assumption that the status quo doesn't change. A rather modest shift in the investing mindset of pension/bond/hedge funds to secure a 5% position in gold and silver would cause a *huge* price dislocation to the upside.
 
China has proposed to expand trading of precious metals to its vast interbank market from designated exchanges, in a bid to boost liquidity and help Beijing gain better pricing power amid growing appetite for commodities such as gold, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Citing a person involved with the matter, the Journal said on Wednesday the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) has released draft rules for such interbank trading, which will include spot, forward and swap contracts for precious metals.

Chinese authorities plan to launch the interbank trading on Aug. 31, according to the draft rules jointly developed by the SGE and the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, a unit of China's central bank, the Journal said.

Currently, participants can only trade precious metals contracts on the SGE and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The authorities will introduce a "market maker" system for the planned precious metals trading with transactions done on an over-the-counter basis compared with the exchange-based pricing mechanism, the Journal said.

The move will make gold the first commodity to trade on the interbank market.
...

More: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/china-precious-trading-idINL2E8IIDWC20120718
 
The biggest part of this is that the BANKS are going to be taking part in all this. People who are short China (and their banking system) are going to be in for a rude awakening when suddenly it's revealed that they are sitting on vast amounts of gold. I mean, where do these people think all that gold is going to? The general public? lol
 
SGE is a bit late with their interbank market, but still working on it apparently:
...
The Chairman and President of the Shanghai Gold Exchange told the LBMA gathering that the Shanghai Gold Exchange will launch an interbank market early next month that will initially begin with spot contracts and will gradually offer forward contracts.

All banks trading on the China Foreign Exchange Trading System and National International Funding Centre will eventually be able to trade in the market, including foreign banks, Wang Zhe, chairman and president of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).
...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-12/lbma-chairman-says-chinese-gold-allocation-rise
 
Not sure what the consequences of that on prices will be. It might move pricing power to China, but it also might stop the overnight meltups.
China's SGE to launch after-hours trading in Gold,Silver
The extended trading hours will bridge the gap between domestic investors and foreign markets, and will align the exchange with international practices, according to an SGE statement. :doodoo:

SHANGHAI(BullionStreet): In yet another attempt to gain further foothold in global futures trading, China's leading commodities exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said it would launch after-hours trading this year including in gold and silver.

The exchange said it will further boost its international ambitions by expanding the list of futures contracts in the coming years, including crude oil.

The extended trading hours will bridge the gap between domestic investors and foreign markets, and will align the exchange with international practices, according to an SGE statement.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange has 10 trading categories, including gold, silver, copper and aluminum.

Analysts said the move will allow market participants to hedge and adjust their positions after breaking news emerges in the United States or Europe, thus reducing price volatility.

SGE now trades from 9 am to 11:30 am and from 1:30 pm to 3 pm Beijing time.

China is also positioning its futures markets to become major players, and shape the global prices for metals, energy and farm commodities as this will give Chinese traders a direct role in valuing the contracts, and will help the country to be less at the mercy of markets elsewhere, they added.

China is a heavy user of industrial and agricultural commodities, such as oil, copper and aluminum. But with an isolated futures market, the country has little say over global prices.

Aside from the Shanghai exchange, China has three other commodities bourses: the Dalian Commodity Exchange in Liaoning province, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in Henan province, and the China Financial Futures Exchange in Shanghai.
http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/chinas-sge-to-launch-afterhours-trading-in-goldsilver/4241
 
In the next part of our on-going look at the global gold market we now turn our attention to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. An exchange which has received more interest of late, than any other in the world of gold and silver.
...
Given the significant rise of gold exports from Hong Kong to China, 68% yoy, this is a timely and informative research piece which shines a spotlight on the Eastern gold market in a time when many are declaring the end of the gold bull market. Given the huge demand for physical and reportedly high premiums on the gold price, we ask if this market may well be a better indicator of gold demand, and subsequently true gold prices, than either COMEX or London.

We do not yet believe that the SGE will become a gold price driver, but the significant volumes and deliveries seen on the exchange suggest that its role in gold price discovery will become significant…, if it is not already.
...

More: http://therealasset.co.uk/chinese-gold-market/

comex-vs-shanghai-gold-price.png
 
The chart below shows the Shanghai monthly physical deliveries vs monthly world gold mining supply.

In the last two months, Chinese demand for physical delivery all by itself is nearly equal to total worldwide gold production. Couple that with the graphs we have seen showing miners are loosing money at the current spot price of gold. Some has to give, and that something is the price of gold, upward.

syx9h1.jpg


http://moneymorning.com/2013/07/10/if-you-own-gold-you-must-see-this-chart/#.Ud8icHddB8F
 
Wow !

The miners really ought to be stockpiling or mothballing.
It makes no sense to be selling below production costs into a wrongly priced market with huge demand. :flail:

.
 
The chart below shows the Shanghai monthly physical deliveries vs monthly world gold mining supply.
Wow indeed! I have only two words for that: "F..k me"! I might actually start to bite here a little. That's just INCREDIBLE demand, and from China ALONE!?!?
 
I don't know what regulations are in place here, but if dealers in Hong Kong are able to take delivery from the SGE, it could be (at least partially) related to physical/retail demand from tourists (Indians, etc.) in Hong Kong.
 
Premiums on gold futures on the SGE yesterday closed at a $12.90 per ounce over COMEX spot - COMEX at $1,283.30/oz and SGE at $1,296.30/oz. Overnight the premium on the SGE rose sharply and is now at $35.94 - COMEX at $1,275.30 and SGE at $1,311.14/oz (see ‘Gold Futures’ in tablebelow).

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-12/shanghai-gold-silver-volumes-surge-records-and-premiums-rise-night-trading-be

Trading volumes for gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange (ShFE) jumped to record highs today a week after the bourse
launched after-hours trading, driven by a surge in investment and
hedging demand

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/china-gold-futures-idUSL4N0FI0ZE20130712
 
"They say the whole summer will be like this. If you ask the refineries, they say they can deliver only after two months," said one Hong Kong-based dealer.

Another trader said the full impact of the shutdowns will be felt in August, when demand tends to pick up ahead of the wedding season in September.

"The current gold supply is getting increasingly constrained while the demand remains strong," said Albert Cheng, managing director for the Far East region of the World Gold Council.

Cheng said gold jewellery factories in China are working at high levels of capacity and 24-hour shifts to meet the demand.

Scrap supply is also expected to fall this quarter as lower prices prevent customers from selling their old jewellery.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/china-goldpremiums-idUSL4N0FI2FF20130712

I can't believe it's so tight even though India the biggest consumer had a 70% drop of gold imports in June!
 
I'm getting the totally subjective feeling that we are at the stage where the tide has run away from the shore in anticipation of the tsunami that's coming.
 
Me too, but I got the same feeling, a little bit after the Cyprus thing and predicted silver would go to the moon in less than a hundred days or something :( They always seem to be able to drag it out a lot longer than I expect...
 
The chart below shows the Shanghai monthly physical deliveries vs monthly world gold mining supply.

In the last two months, Chinese demand for physical delivery all by itself is nearly equal to total worldwide gold production. Couple that with the graphs we have seen showing miners are loosing money at the current spot price of gold. Some has to give, and that something is the price of gold, upward.

syx9h1.jpg


http://moneymorning.com/2013/07/10/if-you-own-gold-you-must-see-this-chart/#.Ud8icHddB8F

More on the SGE:

http://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/the-shanghai-gold-surprise/


Friday, July 19, 2013
David Baker and David Franklin
The Shanghai Gold Surprise


The physical gold market continues to develop in the most wonderfully counterintuitive way. While the paper gold price languishes below US$1,300 per ounce, physical demand out of China is now reaching previously unforeseen levels. If you’ve heard this story before, it’s more of the same, except that the demand tonnage is now so high as to be almost comical.

According to data released by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the amount of gold contracts settled for physical delivery on its exchange reached a staggering 1,098 metric tonnes year-to-date as of the end of June.1 This is an astoundingly large amount of physical gold. For perspective, 1,098 tonnes represents approximately 40% of the entire estimated global gold mine production in 2013. It also represents roughly 1/8th of the US Treasury’s official gold reserves, and over 100% of China’s stated official gold reserves. If the rate of physical delivery on the Shanghai Gold Exchange continues at current levels, it will deliver the equivalent of over 100% of global mine production by the end of this year… all through one exchange.

In contrast, the COMEX futures exchange in New York, where the bulk of US gold futures are traded, saw a measly 160.7 tonnes of physical delivery requests over the same period (year-to-date to June).2 Although the paper volume on the COMEX dwarfs that of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the level of physical delivery requests is only 15% of that seen in Shanghai.

If the Shanghai data is true, when combined with the gold imports going into China via Hong Kong, we now have a situation where China is buying the equivalent of all global gold mine production produced on a monthly basis. How that can coincide with a gold price drop of US$400 per ounce over Q2 is beyond our capability to explain, but it does mean that China is now the undisputed hub for physical gold.

Interestingly, China’s demand for physical gold does not seem to be benefitting the growth of gold ETF products within the country. Bloomberg recently reported that China’s first two exchange-traded funds backed by bullion both had disappointing debuts, with Huaan Asset Management Co. reportedly raising only $195 million out of an expected $400 million at launch.3 Although the press has naturally concluded that this news indicates waning gold demand in China, we can’t help but think it shows that China’s gold interest is primarily focused on the physical metal, as opposed to financial products that trade on exchange. Certainly if the time ever comes where the physical gold market sets price discovery for the gold price (as opposed to the futures market) it seems highly likely that the first place that will happen now is within Shanghai itself.

Whether there’s a link between China’s increasing physical gold deliveries and the drop in gold inventories within the COMEX and GLD ETF remains to be seen, but whoever is supplying China’s gold appetite is supplying it in size. Despite gold’s lackluster price performance, these developments strongly suggest we could be in for an interesting summer in the weeks ahead. Gold is a finite resource - if China’s current purchase rates continue, it is going to own a significantly large proportion of global gold reserves.
 
At this point, anyone that still believes the ETF's can or will eventually deliver any of the promised gold/silver is beyond delusional and deserves to lose their money. Sprott is the only guy out there who physically backs every single share dollar-for-dollar, and so will be the only remaining powerhouse when the smoke clears and the bodies are removed from the crime scene.

I find it amusing to listen to the supposed "experts" on the nightly idiot box speaking in terms that sound like there is actually real gold and silver backing Comex contracts.

There are going to be a lot of tears when this balloon goes up, and believe me, I have lots of popcorn stocked up for watching this show. It's going to be epic boyz and gurlz!!
 
Ancona, I've got my bucket-o-popcorn ready and waiting too. We will be watching the same fireworks show from all points across the country/world (excluding those of course that watch NBC, ABC, CBS Nightly News; they will be watching a different show). :popcorn:
 
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presumably some of the gold traded is simply being churned, otherwise selling more than is produced and delivering is a bit of a challenge ?
 
presumably some of the gold traded is simply being churned, otherwise selling more than is produced and delivering is a bit of a challenge ?

Speculation is/was that the draining of COMEX/LBMA/GLD stocks were going to support/supply SGE sales.
 
presumably some of the gold traded is simply being churned, otherwise selling more than is produced and delivering is a bit of a challenge ?

The other major source of supply is gold recycling, which is a significant amount per year. Chart from World Gold Council report, 2012:

xbbozm.png




Speculation is/was that the draining of COMEX/LBMA/GLD stocks were going to support/supply SGE sales.

Sure enough, and it can be seen in the Q1 and Q2 reports by the World Gold Council. ETFs have been net buyers of gold since early 2000 (see table below), but in Q1 and Q2 of 2013, they have been dumping physical into the market (see chart below):

2nm0tba.png


2l8xe14.png



Through Q2 2013, mining supply has remained steady despite the low gold prices, but I would bet we will see a mining supply decrease in the 2nd half of 2013 and possibly into 2014 due to the prevailing low gold price.

Recycling has already tailed off by about 100 tons per qtr in 2013 as compared to 2012 and 2011 due to the low price in gold.

Coupled with heavy Asian demand, this is all pointing towards a supply crunch within the next year or two, and I believe the supply crunch has already started.
 
... in the fourth quarter of this year the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) will launch an international board in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) for investors worldwide to trade gold spot contracts denominated in renminbi. The purpose being is becoming not only the world’s primary physical gold market but also increase pricing power and internationalize the renminbi.
...
The SGE international board will be another blow to the US dollar hegemony, as more people around the world will hold renminbi, use the renminbi for trading gold and China will have more power in pricing gold, though the international board’s pricing power can only be wholly exploited when the renminbi is fully convertible.
...

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/shanghai-gold-exchange-international-board-another-blow-to-us-dollar
 
...
Today the Chinese government backed Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) brought forward the launch date of its international gold trading platform which is hosted in the city’s free trade zone (FTZ). The gold trading platform will be known as the ‘international board’.

In a surprise announcement, the SGE said today that the international board will go-live this Thursday September 18, eleven days ahead of its original launch date of Monday September 29.

Forty members of the Exchange including global banks UBS, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Standard Chartered, will participate in gold trading on the SGE’s international board, trading 11 yuan denominated physical gold contracts including the large 12.5 kg (400 oz) bar, the ever popular 1 kg bar and a 100 gram contract.

The location of the SGE international board in the Shanghai free trade zone is symbolic in that this location has been earmarked by the Chinese government as part of financial sector internationalisation strategy.

The SGE is also opening a precious metals vaulting facility in the free trade zone with a 1,000 tonne capacity limit.
...

http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_bl...ina_Launches_Global_Gold_Bourse_This_Thursday
 
China stops publishing Shanghai exchange's gold withdrawals. Keeping with the trend of a string of discontinuances of gold and monetary figures publication (M3 money supply, LBMA GOFO, etc).

Any linkage of the Shanghai news to the gold COMEX at record lows and nearly running dry?

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/china-stops-publishing-sge-withdrawal-figures/
http://www.gata.org/node/16128

Koos Jansen: China stops publishing Shanghai exchange's gold withdrawals
Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2016-01-26 20:40. Section: Daily Dispatches
3:38p ET Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen today confirmed with the Shanghai Gold Exchange that it has discontinued publishing the weekly total of gold withdrawals from the exchange.

"This is a disaster for the gold community," Jansen writes. "Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals provided a unique transparent metric for Chinese gold demand, and it's gone. However, that the Chinese stopped publishing SGE withdrawals strongly confirms the importance of these numbers from the past. Until December these numbers gave us a direct measure of Chinese wholesale gold demand. The truth became a little uncomfortable for the Chinese."

Jansen understates the situation. China's decision to conceal the Shanghai gold withdrawal data confirms the monetary metal's supreme significance in the world financial system as it is and as it is likely to evolve. If gold wasn't becoming even more important and strategic, China would not start concealing its flow.

Jansen's report is headlined "China Stops Publishing SGE Withdrawal Figures" and it's posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/china-stops-publishing-sge...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
 
...
Any linkage of the Shanghai news to the gold COMEX at record lows and nearly running dry?
...

I doubt we ever see anything official to that effect, but I believe that cause and effect are stronger tidal forces than coincidence.
 
Its not really a disaster for the gold community is it ?

China feels the need to hide its gold strategy and a few watchful commentators / analysts loose access to a useful piece of data.

Availability of real gold and demand for delivery is not easy to identify though and probably never will be, even after paper suppression blows up.
 
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