Is it time to buy Gold now?

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Gold just hit 1258. If you add 1 plus 2 plus 5 plus 8 you get……16. This is exactly the kind of thing that people should be watching for. Today I might consider buying gold, but it is not without risk.

Here's why. For me buying gold at 1258 is tempting because I first considered buying gold at 1753 (which adds up to 16) and then waited patiently until gold hit 1672 (which, wait for it, adds up to 16) when I considered buying it again. The more I considered buying gold the more I became excited about this strategy (of not actually owning gold) and realized that the next good place to think about buying gold might be at 1582, and so when it hit that number I did a little happy dance, and started thinking about a vacation home in the Caymans.

So far so good. I took aim at 1492 and bingo, I was proved right, and when gold hit that number I started going on websites like Goldmart, Apmex and Govmint shopping for my first gold coin (so I had something to flip), and that got me on their mailing lists so I could start to receive hundreds of e-mail's a day agreeing that "You Should Buy Gold Now!". This was somewhat reassuring but also highly annoying. Does anybody know how to tell them to stop spamming me?. I next thought about buying gold at 1393 and then again at 1285. My strategy is working brilliantly. As long as I keep thinking about buying gold and not buying it when it adds up to 16, my losses are all in my head. :paperbag:

So I think I have discovered that 16 is a very important number here at the "Is it Time to Buy Gold Now?" research department. The recurrence of this pattern is more than a coincidence. It's a clear signal to start thinking about buying gold.

So even if Gold goes to 160 or to 16,000 I think you should keep following this thread so I can guide you through the process and help you decide if now is the time to pull the trigger on gold, and I mean that metaphorically so please put down that gun and take a deep breath, because hopefully you didn't buy gold at 1753. Like I might have. :noevil:
 
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Ahh, it makes Soo much more sense now ;).
Personally, I think I might be selling, when it hits 61000, but that strongly depends on the thing, to which number would add up the digits in the price of a bread loaf ;)

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk
 
But 160 and 16,000 add up to 7, not 16. You have to be very careful when investing!

Seriously, PMs look to be on sale for the holidays. :)
 
PMBug said:
But 160 and 16,000 add up to 7, not 16. You have to be very careful when investing!

Seriously, PMs look to be on sale for the holidays. :)
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Ahh, you are making up some arbitrary obstructions, Bug! It only depends, how you slice & dice the price tag

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk
 
Goldman: 2014 will see gold, copper drop 15% or more
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/11/21/goldman-2014-will-see-gold-copper-drop-15-or-more/

15% is only 1% less than 16% so it is clearly within the statistical margins of the number 16 theory. This is a very exciting development because this is "confirmation" of the numerical algorithm that was developed here at the "Is it Time to Buy Gold Now" research department where we are constantly thinking about whether or not we should buy gold. We are popping champagne corks and our phones are ringing off the hooks with talk of a possible Noble Prize in economics which would put us right up there with our mentor and friend Paul Krugman. By the way "Dumb Commie" refers to the commune of special needs people where he works as a volunteer teaching simple economics such as how to balance a check book and pay your bills using other peoples money, and is not meant to insult hard working and dedicated communists.
paul-krugman-is-a-dumbass.jpg
 
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Trader Dan says, in spite of CME margin reductions, trading to continue sideways and down until something major happens:
...
I want to reiterate - until the market in general becomes convinced that inflation threats are rising, gold is going to struggle. Also, we will have to see NEGATIVE REAL RATES to bring some serious and concerted buying into the metal. Barring that, it is CONFIDENCE that is going to have to give way for the current bear market in gold to reverse course.
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More: http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/11/cme-lower-margins-on-both-gold-and.html
 
from Alasdair Macleod -

This week has been very uncomfortable for long-term gold investors. Trading in derivative markets has become thin, as evidenced by sustained intraday periods of little price movement, with a tendency to drift lower.
This relative calm was shattered on Thursday ahead of the release of the Fed's FOMC minutes when a sale of only 1500 futures contracts (4.67 tonnes) was sufficient to eliminate all bids in the market. The subsequent fall drove the gold price below the October .

The consensus in the investment community is uniformly bearish. Closer questioning boils it down to everyone agreeing for the same reason: the trend is down, the charts are terrible, and therefore one has to be a bear. This level of consensus, long on herd instinct and devoid of any solid reasoning, is however typical of extremes of market sentiment.

The event of the week for which the bears were praying was the release of the FOMC minutes. They actually said nothing new, beyond reaffirming both the desire to reduce asset purchases as and when circumstances permit, and the contradictory commitment to current ultra-low interest rates.

Of greater relevance perhaps is the threat to "twist" that tapering implies: in other words yields on bonds might be free to rise relative to close-to-zero overnight rates. And if bond yields rise, that is bad for gold, or so the bears argue.

This simple logic is blind to two overriding facts: adjusted for the increase in fiat currency, gold is now at a discount of 34% to where it was pre-Lehman crisis, and things have if anything become far worse since then (see the chart below). Furthermore, we must be rapidly approaching the point where there is very little gold left in the West to supply the voracious Asian appetite. So both valuation and physical demand are totally ignored.

There are many similarities between today's market sentiment and that of September 1999, when the gold price jumped 27% in just two weeks. The bullion banks were bearish with gold at $255. The consensus then was that it was going to go lower perhaps to $220, stock markets were hitting new highs with the dot-com boom, and price inflation was not a problem.

The bear squeeze in September 1999 would have been more dramatic had the Bank of England and the Fed not used their still considerable bullion stocks to intervene and rescue the bullion banks from their short positions. If a similar bear squeeze develops today, it is unlikely the Western central banks will have enough gold available to control the market.
 
and from Uncle Jim -

My Dear Extended Family,

The following was written at Changi Airport in Singapore on route to Dar es Salaam,
East Africa, November 22nd 2013/

My presence in Singapore is a mission for us. Having reported to you the six locations
where cash and physical only exchanges for silver and gold were to be established,
I did not leave it at that. My staff and I have contacted each proposed exchange
in order to determine which of the six held the best promise for the gold market
transition phase for price discovery away from paper gold and to physical gold material.

My original interest was to join that exchange on behalf of TRX. That desire transmuted
itself into putting my shoulder behind that exchange which offers the global window
to the real price of gold. That exchange in my opinion is the Singapore Physical
Precious Metals Exchange, headed by CEO Victor Foo.

Too long has gold suffered from trading in its paper form which was originally conceived
of and has continued to live as the means of manipulating the paper price of gold
for the benefit of the few.

The time is at hand for Free Gold. The mechanism of freeing physical gold from price
slavery to paper gold is the present time deletion of future exchange warehouse
supply as the real cash price of physical gold exceeds the spot futures paper contract
by the cost of shipping, the cost of insurance, and the cost of recasting of Western
form 100 ounce gold bars into Asian product demand form.

The reported shipment of one billion in gold recently from the USA to the Rand Refinery
in the Republic of South Africa was not junk jewelry form as reported. It was rather
in the form of 100 ounce Comex bars being shipped to the Rand Refinery for recasting
into Asian product, and was sold mainly in China as gold rose in price.

I was there as a member of the Comex exchange in March of 1980, the last time the
Comex board of directors panicked over the threat of the Hunt Brothers asking for
delivery of both gold, silver and copper in excess of, or equal to, the then Comex
warehouse qualified for delivery supply.

Asian demand for physical gold is now in excess of supply and the declining Comex
warehouse supply qualified for delivery. This is the mechanism for the emancipation
of Physical Gold from the 41 years of price slavery to paper gold due to the cheap
paper mechanism to manipulate the world gold price.

With the present time and predictable need to change the delivery mechanism on the
COMEX to cash in order to avoid default on delivery, the reign of paper gold is
ending. With this end we have the arrival of physical gold as the new discovery
mechanism for the price of gold.

For the transition to take place it is necessary that we have functional global
platforms for the trading of physical metals between peers of merit and a transparent
price for global physical gold that exists nowhere for even professional public
consumption.

There has been a clarion call from the long suffering holders of gold shares and
investment gold for the Chief Executive Officers of gold companies to identify
and take definitive action to end the slavery of the gold price to the mechanism
of manipulation, the paper gold market. The advent of global platforms for and
the true revelation to the gold public of the real gold price, the physical cash
price on a 24 hour basis in the answer.

The cost of trying to manipulate this public physical price wherein delivery must
be immediately made or payment presented immediately in full makes it too expensive
to manipulate the gold price on a consistent basis. The paper gold market cannot
move far away from the real physical price when the real physical price is globally
known. Therefore to manipulate price the tricksters will have to participate on
the physical exchanges thereby increasing their cost of their operation by orders
of magnitude. That huge increase in the cost of moving price at will is the beginning
of the end of paper gold ruling the physical gold price. That substantial increase
in the cost of operation is the beginning of the physical gold market taking the
position as the true discovery mechanism for the global price of gold. It is the
beginning of the end of the reign of paper gold.

We CEOs of gold companies owe our stockholders economic production and all of our
efforts to defeat the plans of the tricksters and their paper machinations that
cost near to nothing and results in gold moving such as $1900 to $1200 when the
true demand for physical over ground gold was on the rise and not on the fall. Where
demand exceeded supply as paper gold was forced by bullies down from $1900 to $1200.
This dichotomy in price is only viable via paper gold manipulation and must end
here and now. To that object of "Free Gold" and the economic production of gold,
I dedicate all my strength, all my contacts of 53 years in the business, all my
knowledge of how to, and my capital.

Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair
 
Ah ha I understand why Uncle Jim was talking up the Singapore Physical Precious Metals Exchange -

Jim Sinclair Named Executive Chairman of Singapore Precious Metals Exchange (SGPMX)
Independent Advisory Board established to ensure long term growth strategy, protect interests of customers. November 22, 2013

SINGAPORE - Singapore Precious Metals Exchange (SGPMX), the world's first physical precious metals exchange with peer-to-peer bullion trading capabilities, today announced the appointment of precious metals specialist, Jim Sinclair, as Executive Chairman of SGPMX. It also announced the establishment of an Independent Advisory Board chaired by Jim Sinclair to oversee the transparency and management of the Exchange, as well as to develop education and advocacy programmes around physical bullion and wealth storage.

Independent Advisory Board members of Singapore Precious Metals Exchange's Independent Advisory Board include former CEO of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (Bursa Malaysia Berhad), Dato Yusli Yusoff, President of McMillan Woods Global, Dato Raymond Liew, prominent lawyer Ranjit Singh, and experienced commodities trader, Peter Mickelberg.

Jim Sinclair said, "I believe the U.S. economy is headed for hyperinflation and the alternative to currencies is precious metals. But it's physical gold and not future gold that we should be looking at. And personally, I predict that emancipated physical gold price from future gold price will go up from US$3,200 to US$3,500 an ounce by 2016."
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Encouraging to learn that Sinclair will be looking to see that these exchanges really do try to reflect the true POG
 
That was quite well written. I agree on very nearly every single point, with the exception that I would advise against holding any paper of any kind. When this balloon goes up, it is going to be spectacularly ugly. The pain that follows will be even uglier still. This time around, people will lose everything......all of it. We will see outright collapses of businesses built on shaky foundations and no government intervention will be there to save them this time. The American People are fed up with bailing these bastards out and will not permit it to occur again.
 
I dunno ancona ........

Once upon a time I was convinced everything 'paper based' would go down into a black hole but I tend to be more circumspect now.

For every headless chicken theres another thoughtful person trying to solve the problem.
I now tend to prefer the 'glass half full' and take the view that human endeavoir and smart thinking will get most of us to a better place when things go wrong.

Im also prepared to buy into the argument that we see chaos theory at work rather than the 'man behind the curtain' .......

Banksters will always make decisions that help them personally but they will eat each other alive if that will serve them better, same with corporations.
So, while it all looks like its all managed, chaos theory offers a more likely explanation of what we see happening.

And just as with all chaos, there is the beginning of a new order coalescing.......
somewhere in that apparently random cloud of events.
 
...

I now have enough Bitcoin to make a purchase of gold. I am looking at goldsilverbitcoin.com and amagimetals.com fairly soon. Any comments?

I will write up the results after I do the deal (yay or nay). If they DO screw me, then I will have been shown to be a fool, but I will paste TFOOT at my blog, here and at Zero Hedge, oh, and yes, I will let them know that when I place my order! I am looking to buy 0.10 or 0.25 oz for this purchase.

***

I fully understand the grave doubts that many (most?) have about Bitcoin, I share some myself. But, they may prove to be a great thing for me, as my circumstances are peculiar... :)

:gold:
 
DoChenRollingBearing said:
... Any comments?
...
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The minute you use a bitcoin wallet for commerce like this, is the minute your wallet gets tied to a name and physical address (for delivery). The more I consider the blockchain structure, the more I think that bitcoin would be a boon to governments with enough computing power (hello NSA). They can analyze the stream and connect enough dots from known wallets to see patterns.

In short, by all means trade your bitcoins for PMs if you can. :mrt:
 
It looks so ugly, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold fall below 1,000 $.
 
well I still feel that once the balloon goes up, gold can have 5 or six fold the delta that silver and noble metal can have.
 
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