Alf Field: Silver to $158 in the next wave

[PMBug]

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News he received an email from his good friend Alf Field predicting silver would move quickly to the $158 level. ...

Here a portion of what Alf Field had to say about how silver will get to $158:

“We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.

Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).

The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.”
...

More: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...k_to_Gold.html

[ancona]

If silver goes to 158 dollars, I will retire early!

Actually, if silver gets that high, I would be afraid of what the rest of the world looked like at that point, and would I be assigning guards for the night shift on the roof lookout, and arming them with a .556 battle rifle.

[dereksatkinson]

Actually, if silver gets that high, I would be afraid of what the rest of the world looked like at that point, and would I be assigning guards for teh night shift on the roof lookout, and arming them with a .556 battle rifle.

This is my concern as well.. Though i was pretty worried what the world would like like with $2000 an ounce gold when it was in the 400s. In all honesty, not much has really changed from the day to day perspective. It's entirely possible that silver goes to 150 before the public even notices.

[DCFusor]

I think it's mostly a matter of rate, not the target so much. That old boiling frog thing. People will tolerate quite a bit of fiat inflation if it's slow enough - look at ours since the Fed began - pretty darn big over the period, but at a (mostly) slow rate. If we had $150 silver in a few months - that's trouble. A few years, not so much and no surprise.

Gold didn't go from 400 to 2k in a day...

[kjansen1969]

If we maintain near the standard 50:1 or 47:1 ratio, if silver went to $150, gold would be at $7500/oz. Which doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Wonderful thought though. Silver did experience a 700%+ gain from 1975 to 1980, but that was b/c of the Hunt brothers cornering the market, which MAY never happen again.

[PMBug]

The GSR went down to 33 before the May (coordinated CME) smash last May. It's quite possible for it to drop down there again if Sprott's buying activities force a supply squeeze on the large institutional investment sized bars.

[bushi]

Our current GSR is much higher than historical/geologic scarcity based, and taking into account that nearly half of silver mined today is consumed by industry and is currently irrecoverable (economically), it makes just another irrational fact about today's markets. As DCF said, they can stay irrational for longer than one can stay solvent (I like it ). My point is, I find this kind of analysis just SILLY, because a) our today's market are not driven by rationale, but by emotions and headlines, b) it can be calculated BOTH ways, and instead of projecting that "silver is undervalued" comparing it to today's gold pricew & historical ratios, one could equally said "gold is overvalued", and have exactly as "valid" argument in this case.

I just think, that mere technicalities are NOT what will determine any of these prices (gold/silver), in today's minefield market that might collapse at any given moment, it all will be based on the investors sentiment, AND governments actions/controls implemented (sure there will be such in the future)/ possible new currencies.

Silver being "poor man's gold" - is it why silver is doing steadily, steadilly, but much better than gold, in recent time? Is it Joe Public, voting with their wallets, and buying all therse Silver Eagles? Dunno, but I think it might be something to it. These Joe Publics, once they make their mind to "fuck them, markets", they will be definitely more persistent than "hot money", and will probably just want to hold on to the real buying power of whatever savings they got.

[dereksatkinson]

Quite a bit of physical buying is coming from China and India. Not just the governments but the people. Contrary to what the media tells us, it's not JUST because of superstition.. They are treating silver and gold as investments.

[ancona]

Derek,
I think you are correct in your assumption, but you left out that the Chinese have historically mistrusted their government. After over half a century of serial abuse, they are wary of this "new economy" and are hedging just in case. The ability to own gold openly is relatively new for them as well, since the government only recently liberalized their PM policies.

[Steven Douglas]

Derek and ancona, you are both correct. Even the US Constitution, and especially the Bill of Rights came on the heels of more than a decade of absolute disaster, anarchy and mayhem, public and private, following US winning of independence. The Founders had government mistrust issues of their own, but they absolutely knew that everyone else did as well. Lots of angry jaded hornets to appeal to. The Bill of Rights, which has since been horribly eroded, was an attempt to address those concerns, and all of that distrust.

In many ways China, with leadership that is removed by generations from Mao, and starting with pragmatist and reformer Deng Xiaoping ("No matter if it is a white cat or a black cat; as long as it can catch mice") has been steadily devolving power to the people, even while clinging, not to "socialism", but only "socialist ideals" and a "harmonious society". They are as much communist-in-name-only as we are a free market capitalist society. What a joke these labels are, all around.

It's still a one party power monopoly system (as opposed to our two party duopoly), and to that extent totalitarian - but it's filled with pragmatists who really can and do think in terms of long term survival - even down to what liberties that requires at the individual level.

China's leadership [rightly] fears civil unrest and revolution more than anything else, and it's obvious to me, having lived there, that they are telling their own people to look after themselves. They are giving out a strong twist on JFK's "ask instead what you can do for your country". That bullshit is just not spoken. China's leadership is more directly saying, in many ways, "Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask instead what you can do for yourselves."

It's very strange seeing it and hearing it firsthand, observing some starkly contrasting dynamics at work, and realizing that both the west and the east are fighting, and trying desperately to come to grips with, their own ideological dichotomies and self-contradictions.

[ancona]

China is in many ways, just like the US, with one stark difference, no bill of rights. They have a pretty open economy and are starting to step up the slope to second world status, but in doing so, they will awaken desire in their billion plus people for things that we in America take for granted, but things that they will have to pillage the entire earthg for to provide them to their people.

[rblong2us]

as US citizens loose their freedoms and the Chineese gradually get greater freedom, there may be a meeting point .....

[Jetstream]

If we maintain near the standard 50:1 or 47:1 ratio, if silver went to $150, gold would be at $7500/oz. Which doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Wonderful thought though. Silver did experience a 700%+ gain from 1975 to 1980, but that was b/c of the Hunt brothers cornering the market, which MAY never happen again.

I'm watching the GSR more than the actual price of either. That is to me the real indicator, and, by the way, where a fair amount of wealth can be added to.