Fukushima continues

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ancona

Praying Mantis
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I wanted to dedicate a thread to the on-going poisoning of our oceans and air by the inept Japanese government and their utility lackeys, the equally inept TEPCO. These ass-clowns have no idea what they are doing, having recently admitted that since the start of this disaster, up to 300 tons of incredibly radioactive water have been pouring in to our ocean each and every day, poisoning the food chain. I have a link here to a site that spend a a great deal of time aggregating information nearly exclusively about Fukushima, but also dedicating room to the slow motion disaster in Bayou Corne Louisiana.

We need to be aware of what these bastards are doing, since it has every potential to create an extinction level mess.

http://enenews.com/
 
I follow GW as well Bug, but for my money, the guys at ENENews are absolutely on top of it every day. Also, they seem to have unique access to some of the people working on-site, giving them a bit of an edge.
 
It's a mess, a large one to be sure, and all driven by profit motive more than ineptness (well, that's not precise, perhaps "wilful ignorance" is better).

I was even able to detect Fuk at my place in VA under very ideal conditions - a storm formed over it right at the time - flew across the ocean and this country and rained on me. By collecting 200 gal of rain, and getting all the sediment after evaporating it (a couple hundred mg) I was able to detect 4 counts/hour of CS 137 with the best gear the gov money could buy (in 1980 or so), inside a lead castle that weighed over a ton to keep out the natural background I have here. EG 4/3600 bequerel. That's not a lot - it's a factor of 10,000 less than the dirt here - only way I could see it at all was with a good spectrometer, or it'd have been buried in the 120cpm I normally get from the ground and cosmic rays.

Not so bad, for me. More like a feat of detection than anything else.

Note, a friend on the west coast with 10x more sensitive gear than I couldn't see *any* increase over the baseline - and he takes that daily, so it's a real number that means something. Seaweed and fish have always been a little hot (and mercuric). But he didn't get the magic rain transport I got to work with either.

Sadly, I sold out of geiger counters too quick to idiots who don't realize that a new reading means nothing without a pre-accident baseline reading. Yes, Fuk is a big leak - as are the half dozen fully critical, still running highly enriched nuclear reactors we and the Russians have dumped on the sea floor in sub accidents.

And yes, this crap concentrates up the food chain, rather seriously. Thing is, fish from the pacific were *already hot* from the aforementioned classified accidents. This is one reason that it took so long for good IR satellite imagery to get online - someone has to photo-shop out the thermal blooms from those reactors or "the terrorists" might find them and reuse the almost already bomb-grade material (not that they'd live through the attempt - which is why we haven't gotten them back ourselves, it's a nasty business).

I'm in no way forgiving these guys - they did a whole bunch of stupid things in a row to get here.
1. run a reactor for decades past it's design life - profit.
2. run the fuel longer than the reccomended replace/reprocess time - profit
3. build it near the ocean in a place that regularly has tsunamis (plus the nimby effect) - profit, less piping and pumping

#1 is obvious.
#2 means that the fuel when removed is much hotter and harder to keep from melting/vaporizing/catching on fire from the increased decay of the fission products. That's why we pull ours sooner in the cycle.
3 is just stupid profit motive, combined with a fierce NIMBY - note little care/news about the many people in the (poor fishing town) who were killed...obviously we all care less about actual deaths than potential ones. Sick.

Dilution as a solution to pollution won't keep working forever, but just for a sense of scale here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_distribution_on_Earth


IF you really want to freak out, take a geiger counter on an airplane. You get quite a lot more from that than any other thing out there - including things like radioactive seeds in your prostate for cancer therapy, or normal other hospital procedures. I have a friend (in my line of work) who does this fairly often, and is about to decide to shut a business and quit flying because of it.
http://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/faqs/commercialflights.html
If asked, I'll post later a chart of common doses from various stuff - it's a neato pic. Short of it is I see about 2 mrem/year from natural sources, and about that much more from my fusion experiments.
A flight - several mrem/flight. That seems a bit high for my comfort.

People tend to be afraid of the wrong things, fight the last war. Taking our shoes off to fly would be a "security theatre" situation for example, that'll never happen again (and it wasn't stopped by the newly revealed NSA junk - it was the passengers the last few times things like that happened).

The world I grew up in - and presumably most here (born in '53 myself) had twice the background count as now due to atmospheric nuke tests, which we all wisely stopped doing (other than the indians and paks and norks, who are obviously, stupid). It's still above that our ancestors lived in.
Let's hope hormesis is real and good at this level...

The word is - people are stupid. Don't get me started.
 
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It's a mess, a large one to be sure, and all driven by profit motive more than ineptness (well, that's not precise, perhaps "wilful ignorance" is better).

I was even able to detect Fuk at my place in VA under very ideal conditions - a storm formed over it right at the time - flew across the ocean and this country and rained on me. By collecting 200 gal of rain, and getting all the sediment after evaporating it (a couple hundred mg) I was able to detect 4 counts/hour of CS 137 with the best gear the gov money could buy (in 1980 or so), inside a lead castle that weighed over a ton to keep out the natural background I have here. EG 4/3600 bequerel. That's not a lot - it's a factor of 10,000 less than the dirt here - only way I could see it at all was with a good spectrometer, or it'd have been buried in the 120cpm I normally get from the ground and cosmic rays.

Not so bad, for me. More like a feat of detection than anything else.

Note, a friend on the west coast with 10x more sensitive gear than I couldn't see *any* increase over the baseline - and he takes that daily, so it's a real number that means something. Seaweed and fish have always been a little hot (and mercuric). But he didn't get the magic rain transport I got to work with either.

Sadly, I sold out of geiger counters too quick to idiots who don't realize that a new reading means nothing without a pre-accident baseline reading. Yes, Fuk is a big leak - as are the half dozen fully critical, still running highly enriched nuclear reactors we and the Russians have dumped on the sea floor in sub accidents.

And yes, this crap concentrates up the food chain, rather seriously. Thing is, fish from the pacific were *already hot* from the aforementioned classified accidents. This is one reason that it took so long for good IR satellite imagery to get online - someone has to photo-shop out the thermal blooms from those reactors or "the terrorists" might find them and reuse the almost already bomb-grade material (not that they'd live through the attempt - which is why we haven't gotten them back ourselves, it's a nasty business).

I'm in no way forgiving these guys - they did a whole bunch of stupid things in a row to get here.
1. run a reactor for decades past it's design life - profit.
2. run the fuel longer than the reccomended replace/reprocess time - profit
3. build it near the ocean in a place that regularly has tsunamis (plus the nimby effect) - profit, less piping and pumping

#1 is obvious.
#2 means that the fuel when removed is much hotter and harder to keep from melting/vaporizing/catching on fire from the increased decay of the fission products. That's why we pull ours sooner in the cycle.
3 is just stupid profit motive, combined with a fierce NIMBY - note little care/news about the many people in the (poor fishing town) who were killed...obviously we all care less about actual deaths than potential ones. Sick.

Dilution as a solution to pollution won't keep working forever, but just for a sense of scale here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_distribution_on_Earth


IF you really want to freak out, take a geiger counter on an airplane. You get quite a lot more from that than any other thing out there - including things like radioactive seeds in your prostate for cancer therapy, or normal other hospital procedures. I have a friend (in my line of work) who does this fairly often, and is about to decide to shut a business and quit flying because of it.
http://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/faqs/commercialflights.html
If asked, I'll post later a chart of common doses from various stuff - it's a neato pic. Short of it is I see about 2 mrem/year from natural sources, and about that much more from my fusion experiments.
A flight - several mrem/flight. That seems a bit high for my comfort.

People tend to be afraid of the wrong things, fight the last war. Taking our shoes off to fly would be a "security theatre" situation for example, that'll never happen again (and it wasn't stopped by the newly revealed NSA junk - it was the passengers the last few times things like that happened).

The world I grew up in - and presumably most here (born in '53 myself) had twice the background count as now due to atmospheric nuke tests, which we all wisely stopped doing (other than the indians and paks and norks, who are obviously, stupid). It's still above that our ancestors lived in.
Let's hope hormesis is real and good at this level...

The word is - people are stupid. Don't get me started.

I have been following this very closely also (in addition to the La thing, etc.

here's some more bequerel news;

George,

I know that radiophobia plays well and I acknowledge the Fukushima meltdowns as catastrophes of colossal proportions, but you had what I assume was a throw-away sentence in the update that just isn’t borne out by the facts. You stated in your blurb on the anniversary of the Nagasaki bombing that the Fukushima disaster “eems destined to outdo the wartime use of nukes in terms of impacts including long-term loss of life.”

Even in the most fevered dreams of the anti-nukes (at least the ones that acknowledge science and historical data) that is a gross overstatement. I have no doubts I’ll spend the rest of my life having to hear it, but that still won’t make it true. The same thing was said about Chernobyl – that the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster). The real death toll is somewhere in the range of 6000 (less than 100 for the accident and immediate response, the rest on estimated cancers) or so and much of that from the Soviets forcing gulag inmates to work in a very high radiation environment, along with some soldiers and engineers who risked their lives to get that situation under control.

In some ways Fukushima was worse than Chernobyl – more plants at the site, a breached spent fuel pool building, no site power for many days, flooded reactor with seawater, etc. So let’s look at that. First off, no one died at the Fukushima complex as a result of radiation exposure during the meltdown phase. A recent attempt at estimating deaths/reduction in life expectancy (http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2012/ee/c2ee22019a) gave a figure that ranges from hundreds to nearly 2000 that is based on theoretical reductions in life expectancy due to cancer and uses the LNT (linear damage theory – no threshold model, a very conservative way of calculating radiation health effects). Time will have to tell, but this will be the most studied cohort of accident victims ever produced, in my opinion.

As bad as the Japanese response has been in some ways (especially in terms of transparency of data) this population will be followed their entire lives, so one way or the other, we will get an answer to your statement, but just like in the early days post-Chernobyl, we are going to see that the real death toll will be much, much lower than feared. Also, because more coal fired plants are being ramped up now to offset the reduction in nuclear, more fatalities and illnesses from respiratory problems will kick in, possibly swamping the theoretical deaths that might be caused by the Fukushima releases (http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es3051197).

I know we are also not allowed to talk about it in polite company, but there was an absolutely massive exposure event in Taiwan where around 10,000 people were exposed to low-level radiation for around 9 years and the results were not a devastating cancer epidemic (http://dose-response.metapress.com/link.asp?id=u570v06p72857877), but the total population actually showed a reduction in cancer incidence. This is why you don’t hear about this massive exposure incident in the mainstream press or from radiophobes.

I’m not saying go out and buy a Co-60 source to hug on at night, and there were complications noted for some subsets of that population (kids, pregnant women), but the cancer/death figures one expects using LNT are not seen, even several decades on. Let’s just say rad effects on people are a complicated topic and not amenable to sound bites.

Much of the problem as I see it today is that TEPCO has no credibility left. The Japanese government has no credibility left. Regarding the leaks into the groundwater, they should be providing constant information on test well readings all around the area. This is very straightforward stuff. Dig the well. Take a sample. Place it in a standard counter. Report the results of the test along with all metadata (detector type, calibration date, any calibration factors necessary to compensate for geometry, etc.) on a publicly available website and then allow audits. We would then know for sure if/when levels begin to exceed regulatory limits and if/when they begin to approach concerns to health (a much higher number).

As for the reactor facility and spent fuel pools, fuel removal is ahead of schedule. There was never a zirc fire in the spent fuel pools. The fuel is the potential source for a potential new disaster there. Contaminated water is a real problem, but we know how to deal with it – collection in resin beds, prevent use of contaminated wells, monitor the coast and fisheries. The dose levels we are talking about that have made it into the food supply are still in the single digit Becquerel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Becquerel) range. Remember that a banana averages around 15 Bq. That is a nice value to compare to. Again, I am not saying don’t worry. I am saying be vigilant, but don’t panic yet. Save the energy, there may be a need to panic later and you don’t want to be wore out by then from needless worrying.

People evolved in a much higher radiation environment than we have today on earth. In reasonable doses, we can tolerate it – though I don’t disagree that some people are more sensitive to rad exposure than others, just like some people are more sensitive to peanuts than others.

Another quick hit for you – the Great East Japan Earthquake killed almost 16,000 people, with over 2,600 people missing/dead. Recall also that the Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004 killed at least 230,000 people. Where are the calls to permanently evacuate all coastal cities and towns along the Pacific Rim?

Thanks for letting me get this off my chest.
 
Wow! I appreciate the quick and thoughtful responses to this thread. Being in the hazardous materials handling business, perhaps I have a bit too much training for my own good. Working at NASA in particular, radiation is treated with a respect usually reserved for God himself, and anyone around, near or working with even mildly radioactive items like tritium paints has many, many hours of training on every aspect of exposure rates, different effects of different emitters and so forth. When i read an article explaining the materials flowing in to the sea using numbers like "quadrillions", it certainly raises an eyebrow. Furthermore, another article describes the spent fuel pools, particularly the one in unit #4 which is in a very precarious position, that were it to collapse, there could be no controlling the inevitable fire that would occur if the rods [some containing plutonium at 5%] were exposed to air with no water to cool them. The site would have to be evacuated, and that is my worry.
 
The straight skinny was too large to upload here, so I put it on my own site, which needed it anyway.
http://www.coultersmithing.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=732&p=4537#p4537

If you really want to know the score on ionizing radiation doses and effects, here you go.

Ancona, is BTW, quite correct - handling radioactive stuff that might get inside you is far more dangerous than most other activities. This is because once in there, there's no skin, clothing, etc to stop any of the most common radiations - alpha (most natural decays, big lumbering He ions) beta (like from tritium or most nuke waste - electrons). X rays or gammas (photons) - doesn't matter too much where they come from - under about 10kev, they don't seem to do much measurable harm, and really won't even make it all the way through you.
Around 30kev (old color TV set voltages) some start to worry, and if you want a good X ray pic - dental uses about 70kv, hospital full body about 120kv. Above that - most of it simply goes on through leaving little energy behind in you.

The difference between a modern hospital X ray and say, the old shoe shop ones is huge. Due to being able to make more sensitive detectors than a simple glowing screen, hospital X rays have gone way down - but look at the chart on my page - still very significant, and it's a lot worse with a CAT scan, since that's really a few hundred sets of X rays taken to build up the 3d image.

Hospitals have also gotten slightly (but not as much as I'd like) smarter about radioactive things they put inside you for pet scans etc - with very short half-lives, they are hot - so you need less total radiation - and they decay quick, so you're rad free quicker. They are still stuck on technetium-99, sadly, for pet scans - inertia - there are better things now, and easier to make since the Chalk River reactor in Canada shut down, which was the sole source of the precursor. But using something safer/better would mean having to retrain a few techs in the lab at the hospital, so alternatives that would be both better and cheaper aren't being considered. In a cost plus fixed fee world (hospitals/insurance) there is not only no incentive to reduce costs, there's a big one to enlarge them. Add tort, and there you go...

Disclosure - I have an axe to grind on that last one. Many of those better/safer alternatives are easily made with my fusor, vs the way they do it now, and there's a huge loss of market for me because of that. And as a result, a hospital is now using a large and accident prone cyclotron to make tiny amounts of the old isotope - at enormous cost. You want to talk precious metals? Think TC-99 - many hundreds of times more expensive than gold.

PS - GW at ZH is almost always totally full of .... well, you know. He profits from fear. I think he's learned from the government on that one.
 
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I have been following this very closely also (in addition to the La thing, etc.

here's some more bequerel news;

George,

I know that radiophobia plays well and I acknowledge the Fukushima meltdowns as catastrophes of colossal proportions, but you had what I assume was a throw-away sentence in the update that just isn’t borne out by the facts. You stated in your blurb on the anniversary of the Nagasaki bombing that the Fukushima disaster “eems destined to outdo the wartime use of nukes in terms of impacts including long-term loss of life.”

Even in the most fevered dreams of the anti-nukes (at least the ones that acknowledge science and historical data) that is a gross overstatement. I have no doubts I’ll spend the rest of my life having to hear it, but that still won’t make it true. The same thing was said about Chernobyl – that the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster). The real death toll is somewhere in the range of 6000 (less than 100 for the accident and immediate response, the rest on estimated cancers) or so and much of that from the Soviets forcing gulag inmates to work in a very high radiation environment, along with some soldiers and engineers who risked their lives to get that situation under control.

In some ways Fukushima was worse than Chernobyl – more plants at the site, a breached spent fuel pool building, no site power for many days, flooded reactor with seawater, etc. So let’s look at that. First off, no one died at the Fukushima complex as a result of radiation exposure during the meltdown phase. A recent attempt at estimating deaths/reduction in life expectancy (http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2012/ee/c2ee22019a) gave a figure that ranges from hundreds to nearly 2000 that is based on theoretical reductions in life expectancy due to cancer and uses the LNT (linear damage theory – no threshold model, a very conservative way of calculating radiation health effects). Time will have to tell, but this will be the most studied cohort of accident victims ever produced, in my opinion.

As bad as the Japanese response has been in some ways (especially in terms of transparency of data) this population will be followed their entire lives, so one way or the other, we will get an answer to your statement, but just like in the early days post-Chernobyl, we are going to see that the real death toll will be much, much lower than feared. Also, because more coal fired plants are being ramped up now to offset the reduction in nuclear, more fatalities and illnesses from respiratory problems will kick in, possibly swamping the theoretical deaths that might be caused by the Fukushima releases (http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es3051197).

I know we are also not allowed to talk about it in polite company, but there was an absolutely massive exposure event in Taiwan where around 10,000 people were exposed to low-level radiation for around 9 years and the results were not a devastating cancer epidemic (http://dose-response.metapress.com/link.asp?id=u570v06p72857877), but the total population actually showed a reduction in cancer incidence. This is why you don’t hear about this massive exposure incident in the mainstream press or from radiophobes.

I’m not saying go out and buy a Co-60 source to hug on at night, and there were complications noted for some subsets of that population (kids, pregnant women), but the cancer/death figures one expects using LNT are not seen, even several decades on. Let’s just say rad effects on people are a complicated topic and not amenable to sound bites.

Much of the problem as I see it today is that TEPCO has no credibility left. The Japanese government has no credibility left. Regarding the leaks into the groundwater, they should be providing constant information on test well readings all around the area. This is very straightforward stuff. Dig the well. Take a sample. Place it in a standard counter. Report the results of the test along with all metadata (detector type, calibration date, any calibration factors necessary to compensate for geometry, etc.) on a publicly available website and then allow audits. We would then know for sure if/when levels begin to exceed regulatory limits and if/when they begin to approach concerns to health (a much higher number).

As for the reactor facility and spent fuel pools, fuel removal is ahead of schedule. There was never a zirc fire in the spent fuel pools. The fuel is the potential source for a potential new disaster there. Contaminated water is a real problem, but we know how to deal with it – collection in resin beds, prevent use of contaminated wells, monitor the coast and fisheries. The dose levels we are talking about that have made it into the food supply are still in the single digit Becquerel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Becquerel) range. Remember that a banana averages around 15 Bq. That is a nice value to compare to. Again, I am not saying don’t worry. I am saying be vigilant, but don’t panic yet. Save the energy, there may be a need to panic later and you don’t want to be wore out by then from needless worrying.

People evolved in a much higher radiation environment than we have today on earth. In reasonable doses, we can tolerate it – though I don’t disagree that some people are more sensitive to rad exposure than others, just like some people are more sensitive to peanuts than others.

Another quick hit for you – the Great East Japan Earthquake killed almost 16,000 people, with over 2,600 people missing/dead. Recall also that the Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004 killed at least 230,000 people. Where are the calls to permanently evacuate all coastal cities and towns along the Pacific Rim?

Thanks for letting me get this off my chest.


OK more tit-for-tat:
(by the way, both these cut and pastes come from George Ures "Urban Survival website)
http://urbansurvival.com/blog/2013/08/20/coping-wujo-or-big-data/

snip:
Say, here’s one with a none-too-friendly tone to it:

I couldn’t help notice your expert article about the effects of ionizing radiation from the self-proclaimed expert on the biological effects of ionizing radiation. Here you have a screw- headed, glorified mechanical engineer, who probably got a certificate in nuclear engineering. Not health physics, not medicine, not radiation toxicology. He is expounding his expert knowledge on the biological effects of plutonium, strontium, and cesium en masse on large populations. Never mind a recent article in that liberal rag The Wall Street Journal, with information to the contrary.

I have always felt that you have a a screw loose! This just cinches that conjecture.

Maybe you and Art Robinson can get together. He could send you some radium salts to bath in. You could have Plutonium pellets on your Wheaties. How about having some Fukushima reactor water flown in and kept in cisterns, so you could drink it’s health effects. Just for you!

I’m sure Tepco and the Japanese government would foot the bill to get it to ya.

Well, actually, our “self proclaimed expert” isn’t self proclaimed, I asked him for input because he has actual expertise that I trust. Moreover, I rely on instruments and data, not the fear mongering department. I know that’s not popular but the truth is usually somewhere between the extremes. While yes, some seafood is polluted from Fukushima, have you measured a banana lately?

Hmmm…I guess I could go measure my banana come to think about it, lol.
 
"My name is Doug and I have mesothelioma" :popcorn:
(microwave popcorn)
 
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The more I see and hear about massive fish/mammal die-offs, the more I believe we have possibly poisoned the seas beyond recovery. There was a huge dolphin kill up and down the eastern seaboard again, just like the one that happened right here in Central Florida. In addition, manatees are dying off in large numbers. I don't buy the red tide horseshit, since it's never resulted in anything of this scale before. I suspect the Fukushima poisoning and of course, the poisoning of the Gulf of Mexico by the Deepwater Horizon BP disaster.

All of my friends in the Florida Keys tell me that shrimping and fishing have been shitty ever since the spill and has not recovered. We used to be able to go out in a flats boat under a full moon when shrimp were running and net four five gallon buckets full in an hour or tow. Now we're lucky to get one bucket, and the shrimp tend to be smaller.

In many respects, what BP did was beyond criminal since the Gulf is the "nursery" for the Atlantic. Just like the banking collapse, no one of note has gone to jail. I think only one or two low level engineers got some time. The guys way up the food chain? They're still cashing in on stock options.
 
they dumped vast amounts of corexit onto the oil to hold it down and used the opportunity to get rid of huge volumes of an older version that had been banned for use in open waters due to its toxicity ........

( yeah i miss 'theoildrum' too)

And as you say, no one goes to jail. :judge:

They really believe that EVERYTHING can be fixed by throwing useless printed banknotes at things. :flail:
 
they dumped vast amounts of corexit onto the oil to hold it down and used the opportunity to get rid of huge volumes of an older version that had been banned for use in open waters due to its toxicity ........

( yeah i miss 'theoildrum' too)

And as you say, no one goes to jail. :judge:

They really believe that EVERYTHING can be fixed by throwing useless printed banknotes at things. :flail:

and if I understand correctly, the thermocline has halted also.
 
Why isn't Al Gore on the case? I guess he hasn't figured out how to profit from it yet, proving yet again that we are cattle to be slaughtered to TPTB.
 
I'm in no way forgiving these guys - they did a whole bunch of stupid things in a row to get here.
1. run a reactor for decades past it's design life - profit.
2. run the fuel longer than the reccomended replace/reprocess time - profit
3. build it near the ocean in a place that regularly has tsunamis (plus the nimby effect) - profit, less piping and pumping

Note that all 3 points weren't possible without approval from the government.

Note also that the response from the US government was to raise acceptable radiation safety levels across the board and send Obama to Texas to pitch sales for more nuke plants from Tepco.
 
Reuters India @ReutersIndia
FLASH: Japan raises severity of latest Fukushima leak to level 3 ("serious" radiation "incident") on international scale 8:37 PM - 20 Aug 2013

Ancona saw the problem a week early.
 
Ancona saw the problem a week early.

unless the government knew of the severity from the start, like they do with everything else.

I realize I'm vacillating back and forth with severity articles, but here's another good article:
http://enenews.com/biologist-pacifi...g-hemorrhaging-first-noticed-in-summer-of-201

snip:
A close up of our fate to come. Most people still blind to this. When their tears turn bloody maybe people will wake up. The Pacific now unsafe for eternity. More reactors will fail before this gets better. We are fukued.
 
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... of course, the poisoning of the Gulf of Mexico by the Deepwater Horizon BP disaster.

All of my friends in the Florida Keys tell me that shrimping and fishing have been shitty ever since the spill and has not recovered. We used to be able to go out in a flats boat under a full moon when shrimp were running and net four five gallon buckets full in an hour or tow. Now we're lucky to get one bucket, and the shrimp tend to be smaller.
...

I saw this report on Al Jazeera last year that was really eye-opening:
"The fishermen have never seen anything like this," Dr Jim Cowan told Al Jazeera. "And in my 20 years working on red snapper, looking at somewhere between 20 and 30,000 fish, I've never seen anything like this either."

Dr Cowan, with Louisiana State University's Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences started hearing about fish with sores and lesions from fishermen in November 2010.

Cowan's findings replicate those of others living along vast areas of the Gulf Coast that have been impacted by BP's oil and dispersants.

Gulf of Mexico fishermen, scientists and seafood processors have told Al Jazeera they are finding disturbing numbers of mutated shrimp, crab and fish that they believe are deformed by chemicals released during BP's 2010 oil disaster.

Along with collapsing fisheries, signs of malignant impact on the regional ecosystem are ominous: horribly mutated shrimp, fish with oozing sores, underdeveloped blue crabs lacking claws, eyeless crabs and shrimp - and interviewees' fingers point towards BP's oil pollution disaster as being the cause.
...

More (worth reading - couldn't post the whole article): http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/04/201241682318260912.html
 
Fuk is having another major leak these days. Probably won't affect us much here unless we eat a lot of fish from that area. But it's a heck of a mess for the Japanese. The leak makes the ground etc so radioactive you can't send humans near it to clean it up. I heard a quote (this time in real units of sieverts) that says you'd get a 5 year max dose in an hour working near the affected area.

That's not good. Radiation effects are much worse on living things when delivered all at once - DNA damage doesn't get repaired fast enough, so that 5 year dose in an hour is actually much-much worse on humans than the same dose spread over 5 years. They're going to need more and better robots to clean that up, if they can at all. Sending in people to work one hour every 5 years (you'd need a lotta guys to get that shift schedule) will produce a lot more rad damage than this over-simple measure predicts, in other words. The fact it was bad already is probably why not enough humans were near to monitor/prevent the latest leak. It's a tough problem...

Mike, initial rad safety guidelines were set so low under the "linear no threshold" UN dogma that a raise in them was not totally inappropriate - LNT has been proven to be pure BS, rate matters. They were adjusted after better data became available.
That chart I posted on my site, linked above, shows what they allow currently. The net result of such exposure, which few but older radiologists have ever received, is right at the point were epidemiology shows the damage just a little out of the noise - those guys lose their hair about 5 years early, and die a couple years younger, on average, but in modern settings, almost no one actually gets those doses (and note how much higher they are than background or most normal non-rad worker doses received in real life).
 
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How does this compare to Fukushima?
A total of 193 nuclear tests were carried out in Polynesia from 1966 to 1996. On 24 August 1968 France detonated its first thermonuclear weapon—codenamed Canopus—over Fangataufa. A fission device ignited a lithium-6 deuteride secondary inside a jacket of highly enriched uranium to create a 2.6 megaton blast. On 17 July 1974, a test exposed Tahiti to 500 times the maximum allowed level of plutonium fallout.
 
I can't say without real numbers - like the quoted "max allowed level". What is it, who generated it, what theory did they use. Some of those are set fairly arbitrarily. There’s some bad science, driven by fear, out there.

Thermonukes *can* be less dirty than plain nukes if they work as planned - the fusion part creates enough neutrons to fission (nearly) all the uranium or plutonium in the rest of the weapon depending on the design and how "well" it works - most of the energy in a thermonuke is actually still from fission (this isn't widely known, but it's the case - extra neutrons from the fusion part just make the fission get closer to completion before the thing blows itself to bits). Of course, the reason they are tested at all is that no one is sure a particular design is going to work as expected...The old style pure nukes were actually much dirtier, since nearly all the U or Pu involved was dispersed into the clouds before reacting. EG the bomb blows itself apart before it's done doing its thing.

Fission creates some nasty byproducts that are in general much worse than the U or Pu used, for humans, though all are bad to get inside you where there is no protection at all from the radiation.

Most fission products are beta emitters, with some gamma in there. Betas are fast electrons, with fairly limited range in air (inches to feet), shorter in more-dense things. Gammas go farther, but lose energy also due to Compton and other scattering. Most "natural" radio-actives mainly emit alpha particles, which a piece of paper or a layer of dead skin will stop - or a few inches of air. Betas go further, but not a heck of a lot unless the energy is very high - the betas from say, Tritium are pretty short range as they max out at a mere 16kev or so (google how and why neutrinos were predicted and discovered - some of the betas coming from beta decay have near-zero energy) - they don't make it very far through even tritium gas itself, and tritium decays fast (12.5 yr half life), so it's less a threat than some might imagine, even though the Becquerel count is high initially. That's why it is extremely difficult to detect any radiation whatever coming out of say, a tritium based gunsight - the glass alone stops the ones that the phosphor does not - totally.

The highest danger is getting this stuff inside you, where there is nothing to stop it but actively living tissue. Many of the worse things (say cesium or plutonium) concentrate in the bones where your blood cells are manufactured. And both are poisonous in the chemical sense, radioactivity aside.

Cesium 137 is generally one of the worst things to leak or to get inside you. It fakes your body out chemically, pretending to be calcium (the chemistry is real similar), so it gets into organic compounds all over. It has just the right half life to be super hot, yet last long enough to really do damage - about 30 years. Tritium, being hydrogen as far as chemistry is concerned, and being the end of a decay chain, has to be incorporated into something "organic" - say burned with air into water, to be real dangerous. Radon, though not as hot, is far more dangerous, as it decays into solid byproducts that can get stuck in your lungs...and those products have a long decay chain, emitting more radiation at each step in the chain. As I live in a high radon area, I continuously force ventilate my crawl space (about 300 cfm pushed through there 24/7) to keep things "quiet" up here in the house. It's actually lower count rates indoors than out in my driveway as a result, and the second floor is lower yet both because I'm further from the ground, and because there is less stuff between me and the cosmic rays. That sounds counter-intuitive, but what happens with cosmic rays when they hit stuff is showers of still high-energy particles are produced, and more of those is more damage to you and higher counts on the counter. It gets worse again at higher altitudes, where the air hasn't yet stopped most of them and the resulting showers - it's a bit complex.

Radon's actually something I have to keep track of here, since I have some fairly hot stuff (minerals) from an old natural reactor that went critical in Africa quite a long time ago (when all uranium was enriched compared to now). It gives off radon - lots. The radon decays in the lead "pig" I keep that kind of thing in, even escapes the baggies the samples are in inside the lead pig (which by the way, is stored in a building 100 yds from here that I enter quite infrequently...). This leaves a fine dust that is still hot, all over. Every time I need to get a sample to calibrate a gamma ray spectrometer, I must count my fingers (not numerically, but with a geiger counter) to make sure I've washed it all off - gloves or not. You REALLY don't want that crap in your lungs.

I can publish ranges in various materials for the various types of radiation if anyone is interested, but in general, alphas are pretty benign - they stop in a few cells worth of tissue, and on most people, those cells are in the dead skin layer (unless you shower a couple times a day, you've got that already). Typical range in air is under 3" - which is why they can use a pretty hot alpha source in a smoke detector without danger of frying you, even if it wasn't behind plastic etc for good measure.

Betas go further, and skin alone usually won't stop the hotter ones in the hundreds of kev range (like from cesium 137 - 662 kev). Usually a few inches in something like water stops betas, even fast ones, but that's not much consolation if they are being emitted inside you - in fact, it's the worst case, since 100% of the energy is dumped inside you, doing damage. Most of the damage, your body repairs easily, but not all...You're mostly water, proteins and such. Not much of you is actually DNA, and we have a fantastic "error correction" mechanism that includes "parity" information (either strand of the DNA contains all the info), and special "self destruct" mechanisms that usually trigger if one strand of DNA doesn't compliment the other perfectly on cell division. And a few other things. As an engineer, I'm kind of jealous how well we are designed, actually.

Here I measure the background from all nuke tests as having gone down about factor of two since my birth awhile back (about 60 years) - back to almost pre nuclear levels. It does tend to spread around the world, but not always, the usual unsatisfying "it depends" applies to that.
And it's why all sane nations stopped doing tests on the earth.

Since we do know about the other tests, who was exposed and to how much, time will tell us what the damage was, probably largely due to increased cancer and related disease rates, but it's a heck of a job for a good epidemiologist to tease that out from all the other life-style variations and their effects unless it's truly dominant. So the truth is, we don't know, but we will at some point.

I'd note that in cases of fairly extreme exposure (A bombs in Japan, Chernobyl) that there were a lot fewer actual delayed exposure-related deaths and disease than the radio-phobes predicted, but for the latter, the time we need to get a good measurement of actual effects hasn't really passed yet.
But all the prompt effects have already occurred and weren't nearly as bad as some expected, even though you could (and I did) detect Chernobyl from here - without any fancy gear at all - for a few weeks it alone doubled the radiation level in Floyd, VA, quite a distance away. Now they let tourists onsite there. The hotter they are, the faster they decay back to safe levels.

If the radiophobes were right - I'd be dead already from both background, and my fusion work, which gives me a little extra exposure, yet I'm still kicking - and pushing the limits just a little ( I don't go anywhere near the allowed exposure for radiologists and nuke workers, there isn't a need for it in my work).

An increased risk of cancer that mainly happens 40 years out doesn't matter all that much to this 60 year old who is still kicking ass and taking names...I'd probably do things differently if young people were in the lab when I was running, though.

As it is, every time I make any significant advance in fusion rates (pretty often, I still hold the records on Q), I scale the device down to keep exposure to just what's easy to measure against the normal background from the sky and the ground. No point in success if I don't live to see it!
I am also working on techniques that control the fusion reaction possibilities towards reactions that don't produce as many neutrons - which are what make other things radioactive in general, hard to shield from and so forth (at least for me, a nuke fission plant can just use crazy-thick amounts of concrete for that, but I don't have the room for it).

Edit: It's pretty sure that the BP spill - combined with the efforts to "make it go away" were far worse for the world as a whole than any nuke accident so far. Humans seem to be so greedy they don't mind occasionally shitting in their nest. At some point it gets pretty bad, since the scale there was so huge.
 
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How does this compare to Fukushima?
A total of 193 nuclear tests were carried out in Polynesia from 1966 to 1996. On 24 August 1968 France detonated its first thermonuclear weapon—codenamed Canopus—over Fangataufa. A fission device ignited a lithium-6 deuteride secondary inside a jacket of highly enriched uranium to create a 2.6 megaton blast. On 17 July 1974, a test exposed Tahiti to 500 times the maximum allowed level of plutonium fallout.

 
Extremely grateful to have the Fusor giving us some common sense transtation of the hype we seem to be getting regarding fukushima.

Clearly a huge problem on the ground and perhaps not so big a deal as you get further away.
My thought was either they are not telling us about the giant burial sites or relatively few are dying ( so far ) .........

Ive read about visits to the evacuated areas around Chernobyl and nature seems to having fun with man now giving her a free run.
 
high altitude EMP test:

snip:
The explosion resulted in an EMP much larger than anticipated, illuminating a large area of the Pacific Ocean, causing electrical damage in Hawaii some 900 miles away from the detonation point, trapping high-energy electrons to form radiation belts around the earth, disabling one-third of satellites in low earth orbit and causing other satellites to fail over time.:

http://www.patriotheadquarters.com/us-emp-tests-surface-again/
 
You couldn't get me to go to where there's 100 mS/hour rad levels for even 5 min. Yes, it's super, really, astoundingly bad there, though no where near as bad as it could be (so far).

Even these big numbers they are quoting are a lot less than is possible to happen. It's bad enough as is, for them, and the nearby fish etc. Not as bad for the ocean as BP was, though, at least IMO.
Yet; keeping those used fuel rods safe is THE priority. The rest is nasty, but noise by comparison.

The word is - if you took a golf ball sized piece of nuke fuel that had been run that long (eg the stuff they are still containing) fresh out of a reactor (their stored stuff isn't fresh any longer but it's still pretty nasty - about 1/4 by now), and drove over it in a car at 60 mph, you'd get a dose that would prompt-kill you.
Ahem, that's a bit worse than a 5 year OK dose in one hour, eh? That's death in 1/10th second. From a couple ounces of that crap near you. This perhaps makes it easier to understand why they are moving very slowly and carefully with that stuff - it's truly the real risk. It's so nasty you can't even put a vid camera on the robot at those levels - the radiation makes you get just white, no picture. Bits get flipped in its microprocessor and stuff like that - nothing we know of can take that level of nastiness.
Here's a small example - of about a zillionth that amount of radiation's effect on a camera while I took a picture of the guts of my fusor - through 3/8" thick lead glass. The lens of course didn't focus the gamma rays, and now we use a lot more lead.
XrayCam.jpg At least in the preview, when I click this picture, I can see all the pixels that were "set" by gamma rays.

That's how bad it can get. But they are a long way from that, and keeping it that way has to be the priority for them (and us). Even these bad numbers they have now represent a tiny fraction of what could be possible - I'm not trying to fear-monger here, just give perspective. Let's just say it's a good thing that a terrorist wouldn't live long enough to plant a bomb in all that stored old fuel they have there to spread it all over.

It's why I work on fusion, even though currently we are working with more neutron output per watt than fission (neutrons are nasty things but only occur during actual fission or fusion).

At least when I flip the switch - the thing is off, cold, nothing - except for the tiny piece of silver or indium I made radioactive on purpose for monitoring (which would still be safe to eat, for crying out loud, it's not that hot - just enough to measure reliably with the best gear available). When I hit the switch, it's Off Right Now. There is promise (but only that, mainly hope) that someday I or another will get aneutronic fusion to gain, that's the holy grail.

That would only produce gamma rays and some fast (but heavy) particles which are very easy to stop/convert to heat to run a steam plant - and make nothing else whatever radioactive in the process. With the same advantage I have already - turn it off, it's truly off right away, no long term issues at all.

The thing is, we all work with neutronic fusion now for a couple reasons. It's for one thing a factor of a few (hundred) easier to make DD or DT fusion than any other reaction, and the resulting neutrons are a signature that's easy to measure, since there are almost no naturally occurring ones (even from fission waste). So for tuning and learning, that's the way to go. With a-neutronic fusion, you're looking for a certain type of fast moving charged particle or gamma in a sea of other ones, trying to tell what reacted and what didn't and how much - a nightmare for tuning and measuring. We in the biz all think that once we get the easy stuff - we'll know enough to tackle the harder but potentially cleaner and better stuff - it doesn't seem a major worry right now.

I have friends in Japan (American ex-pats), and they'd tell me if there were mass deaths other than those from the wave itself, and they'd know. Believe me, they're watching and aren't as "tame" as your average Japanese - their BS detectors were tuned here...They have the best of both, they are married to Japanese women.

Edit:
Back when our government was acting a bit more sane, they stopped "live" EMP testing with real nukes and built this amazing EMP generator in one of those "areas" that people think are the UFO stuff.
I know because they bought every high energy discharge capacitor on the market, and a few of my friends sold and told me about it. I've seen a pic of this larger than a football field wooden elevated platform, with a coil of wire around it to discharge those capacitors into, with a bomber parked on it so they could test how EMP-hard the bomber was. BTW, this lights up the night sky and creates all sorts of odd atmospheric lights for hundreds of miles, makes compasses spin and so on. The UFO thing was a perfect cover story for them!
 
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No. A hydrogen/air explosion (and the signature here is deflagration, not detonation) *above* something heavy just pushes it down. Further evidence - I don't see the radiation that would result anywhere. I have friends world wide that monitor that and have for years to decades, and I trust their methodology. They have this thing most of the newly frightened lack - a long term baseline of readings before any of this.

The stuff above the explosion and alongside it gets tossed in the air. The stuff below it gets tossed down into the ground. In this case, a tank full of water and fuel rods (which are very dense/heavy).

Example, just for fun, from a journo shoot here the other day where we put an explosive in the middle of something:



Note the bottom half didn't move AT ALL.

This was from my camera, unedited. Look for the real article and a lot more cool video from Vice magazine in about a month. We also took them for a camera ride 0-100-0 mph in a 1200hp/1100lb car...Though I warned the cameraman, there were a few shots of the sky (and feet) - he couldn't hold the camera through the Gees. 0-100-0 in half a mile is some ride.

Edit to add:
My friend on the west coast didn't detect *anything* with cryogenically cooled HPGE spectroscope, better than mine (but he didn't have my super sample collection tech). My friend in Germany didn't either. She did go to Chernobyl and stole a medium warm sample while the handlers weren't looking. It was hotter than the ditch dirt in Tokyo and Yokohama sent to her by my friends in Japan - but I wouldn't eat that ditch dirt myself, it was warm enough to be of some concern (hotter than here). My friend in Texas also saw nothing during a very long run (he was looking for something else, but this would have shown on his gear if there was anything above background - he was watching for effects of solar weather, low/high energy radiation). What it's like near the reactor is crazy-bad, but it seems localized.
It's probably not too cool to swim on that beach either.
 
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No. A hydrogen/air explosion (and the signature here is deflagration, not detonation) *above* something heavy just pushes it down. Further evidence - I don't see the radiation that would result anywhere. I have friends world wide that monitor that and have for years to decades, and I trust their methodology. They have this thing most of the newly frightened lack - a long term baseline of readings before any of this.

The stuff above the explosion and alongside it gets tossed in the air. The stuff below it gets tossed down into the ground. In this case, a tank full of water and fuel rods (which are very dense/heavy).

Example, just for fun, from a journo shoot here the other day where we put an explosive in the middle of something:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0qXQCVLGKQ

Note the bottom half didn't move AT ALL.

This was from my camera, unedited. Look for the real article and a lot more cool video from Vice magazine in about a month. We also took them for a camera ride 0-100-0 mph in a 1200hp/1100lb car...Though I warned the cameraman, there were a few shots of the sky (and feet) - he couldn't hold the camera through the Gees. 0-100-0 in half a mile is some ride.

Edit to add:
My friend on the west coast didn't detect *anything* with cryogenically cooled HPGE spectroscope, better than mine (but he didn't have my super sample collection tech). My friend in Germany didn't either. She did go to Chernobyl and stole a medium warm sample while the handlers weren't looking. It was hotter than the ditch dirt in Tokyo and Yokohama sent to her by my friends in Japan - but I wouldn't eat that ditch dirt myself, it was warm enough to be of some concern (hotter than here). My friend in Texas also saw nothing during a very long run (he was looking for something else, but this would have shown on his gear if there was anything above background - he was watching for effects of solar weather, low/high energy radiation). What it's like near the reactor is crazy-bad, but it seems localized.
It's probably not too cool to swim on that beach either.

looks like we're gonna need some bigger snakes.... :)
 
they dumped vast amounts of corexit onto the oil to hold it down and used the opportunity to get rid of huge volumes of an older version that had been banned for use in open waters due to its toxicity ........

( yeah i miss 'theoildrum' too)

And as you say, no one goes to jail. :judge:

They really believe that EVERYTHING can be fixed by throwing useless printed banknotes at things. :flail:

Money over mankind, Fukushima vs Chernobyl
http://www.whiteoutpress.com/articl...le-armageddon-in-last-ditch-fukushima-effort/
 
The stuff above the explosion and alongside it gets tossed in the air.

Didn't reactor 3 have spent fuel pools above it's reactor, like reactor 4? That's what I don't get. For 2 years, they've been saying how precarious the pools above reactor 4 are, and that if they fall, it will be end of days. But reactor 3 already blew its pools sky high.
 
here's some more disingenuous bullshit. Lets hope that radioactive water never reaches the ocean!

 
Well, at some point...facts talk - or I for one lose interest in the discussion.

I (or any of my colleagues) can detect a single nuke weapon explosion anywhere on the planet with the gear we use regularly - and keep calibrated - for other rad-related uses in our daily work. That's only a few pounds of U or P, in the range of 10 lbs worth (modern nukes use less due to the fact we can explosively compress a "pit" to much more than STP density, so can get critical with less - even an amount that will fit in an artillery shell, including all the other junk it takes to make it go bang). A thermonuke has more (that DU blanket). But on this scale, you're still in the 100 lb range for the active material part. There are numerous reasons for that, including deliver-ability of the weapons we use now, though some early tests skipped weight reduction as that wasn't the point at the time - the point was learning how to make these work at all. Things have changed in the weapons business quite a lot since the old tests and news reports. It's the difference between Kitty Hawk and a modern fighter, or more.

A reactor uses ~~ 10,000 lbs of fuel (from Babcock and Wilcox, "Steam, its generation and use").
A spent fuel pool might contain more than one full reactor's worth, and in this case, they were totally running out of room in theirs. 100 nuclear weapons worth, more or less.

Yes, the design sucked (on many levels). I started out stating that, though without that detail.

Hydrogen floats in air better than helium - it gathers at the very roof, above everything else in a building.

Fuk onsite measurements are a mere (in this context) 100 mS/hour. That only takes a few grams worth of this stuff spread out over a rather large area (sq miles). Looks like anything past that went into the ocean. If more than a few pounds did, we'd see it all over the pacific and some of the rest of the world by now - oceans have currents and mixing. But we don't see it. No one sees it.

We do see evidence that a little got into the ocean, from fish and seaweed, which tend to concentrate it quite a lot - but even there - mostly from samples taken quite near the site. Fish and seaweed are always a bit warm because of that concentration and the fact that U is naturally occurring - this freaked out a few in CA who'd never taken measurements of what was "normal" before the event, but was completely scoffed at by those who did.

Japanese spent fuel is hotter with fission by-products because they run well past the point we pull ours. They do this in part to make reprocessing less expensive for the amount returned as usable fuel. Not that our own is exactly "cool" - even ours is quite hot and has to be handled tele-robotically from great distances and from behind a shield and after a long wait for the very hottest (shortest half-life) isotopes to decay. It's a difficult process, as I mentioned. You can't use a camera in proximity to the stuff, we use telescopes looking at a mirror that bounces the light from behind a shield but not the radiation to do it now, with operators behind a very thick shield and all sorts of controls. That situation is going to be kinda hard to set up at the site for reasons that should be obvious.

Background measurements worldwide haven't gone up noticeably - there is noise in the measurements that correlates well with solar and earth magnetic "weather" (changes in the cosmic ray background and one of my friends measures that for a living), but any change is down in that noise. I have zero reason to believe my own rad-focused community is all seeing it and hiding it.
They have indeed seen things spreading in Japan, which I mentioned - but it's pretty low level even there.

Yet a single nuke weapon does make the background go up worldwide, easy to measure - a mere few pounds of stuff. Physics Today had a nice set of articles on this, how we detected the Russian tests (I used the same method as NRL, which worked far better than the AF method of flying paper filters - NRL collected rain and reduced it as I did, so you collect more to measure). I can scan the article if you like, but it's a copyright violation and the science paper guys make the RIAA look kindly. (It's one of my rants)

Ipso facto - if any major amount of that fuel has gotten loose, we'd all know and it wouldn't be possible to hide that fact. There would already be massive deaths in Japan from it, and the world background count (or the water in the oceans at least) would have much more than doubled, and it simply hasn't.

If it had, I for one (and I know a good number of others) would be shouting it from the rooftops. It doesn't matter how much the Japanese try to cover up verbally - we'd know - test equipment doesn't lie - and we have quite the vested interest in staying alive and don't give a flying fsck what they say about it. I am not an apologist for the stupid things they've done, on purpose, to make more money.

But I'm not shouting - I'm saying that the huge bulk of evidence is that it is how I'm telling you it must be.

That's bad enough, especially for those nearby. It could have been far worse, but it wasn't.
I don't guess the word "far" explains this well - lets call it a million or more times worse.
Maybe tens of millions of times.

As I explained above, this stuff is so nasty-hot it takes very little to notice over huge swathes of the planet - and Chernobyl was a pretty good test case for that - we could see it here with nothing better than a cheap geiger counter - no spectroscope needed to pick out the signature of nuke fuel isotopes from the background, and it doubled the background half way across the planet with no special spreading mechanism other than a simple fire.

No one is reporting that now. There's a reason. No one sees it who knows how to measure. Some of my colleagues have even cast doubt on my own meager detection, since they don't even see what I've seen (and I don't see it any more). No one knows of any magic way to make spent fuel from a pool suddenly not be hot. If they did, there'd be no problem anyway, right? We'd just do that and problem solved.

Occams razor - there was no bulk loss of spent fuel - the entire world would be able to see that with simple gear, yet even advanced gear that can pick out single isotope radiation gamma-spectral lines from the far more numerous background from the U in the ground and cosmic rays (the bulk) doesn't see that. I design, build, and sell that kind of thing myself (mainly so I can afford to own a couple here).

I'm not saying that it cannot happen, I'm saying that it didn't happen - yet. And it's not likely to happen if anyone exercises reasonable care or even just benign neglect, which seems the plan at the moment - the consensus is we're better off waiting for the fast-decay components to cool off before we mess with that stuff, no matter what tools we use - you get a lot of reduction fairly quickly from the exponential nature of radioactive decay of the hottest and shortest lived components. Some of it lasts longer of course, but again - perspective - the hottest stuff is gone the quickest.
Better to wait for it to go from insanely-ludicrously bad to just very-very bad first.

There is no longer hydrogen to explode, or for that matter, a building left to hold enough to create an explosion even if more were being generated. They say it isn't, and this doesn't conflict with what we know from other cases of the heat generated by spent fuel going down over time.
It does look like some of the fuel rods are damaged, and in fact that's where the hydrogen comes from - Zirconium rod cladding getting too hot in contact with water causes the cladding to "burn" with the oxygen in the water and release hydrogen. If it burns through, some of the spent fuel gets into the water - some of it is either water soluble or reacts with water quite fiercely (sodium and cesium among them).

I think you just don't understand the scale issue here. It's so huge we have to use exponential notation to even think about it decently. At most - several sigmas out from what we think we measure - a couple pounds got loose (the mean is ounces, not pounds) - and mostly stayed on-site; more and every pro and amateur scientist on earth would be seeing it worldwide, and we don't - and we looked hard. Everybody wanted to measure something to be able boast they could. "If it bleeds, it leads".

Surely you don't believe we're all seeing and covering it up when it would kill us just as surely as anyone else? How would I benefit from that? Those of us in the biz are if anything, more likely to shout about it - we develop quite a bit of respect for this stuff - if you don't, Darwin gets you very quickly.

Having said that, the real fear, unlikely though it is - is another tsunami that picks all that loose junk up and sweeps it into the ocean. That would be bad indeed. So again, I'm not saying it can't happen, just that it hasn't.

Hope ancona doesn't mind me borrowing his sig, but I think it really applies here.
 
Thank you for taking the time to write/post that.
 
DC,
While i understand exactly what you explain to me in absolute terms, and have every faith that you are orders of magnitude more knowledgeable than I am on all matters nuclear, I have a few lingering questions/worries. Although they may indeed be the result of fear mongering, which has certainly been going on, these fears may be rational and warranted.

1. The spent fuel pools in #4 purportedly contain not only "spent fuel' that has been there for quite a long time, it also contains fresh fuel. It is these rods that concern me, as the stuff being published about them make the claim that if exposed to air, or if they come too close together, then chain reactions start that cannot be stopped due to the absence of control rods. In the event that another quake damages the pool and it leaks all the water or collapses, is this a real possibility?

2. The cores cannot be located by Tepco. The reactor cores are known to be leaking and it has been published by Tepco that they are indeed ex-core and may have migrated down through containment, possibly in to the ground. If so, is that not a terminal concern? What about ground water contamination?

3. There are hundreds of large water tanks which were hastily set up to store water. The water is incredibly radioactive and now the tanks appear to be leaking. What do you do with thousands and thousands of tons of that stuff? The make-shift nuclide removal system from SARY and Areva apparently cannot filter the water enough or remove the contamination. I think the system pulls water through a bed of zeolite or something.
 
ancona - these are worthy questions that deserve a better answer than I can give without more info.
I'd like to know the source of some of it. As in, if that source if full of it on some topic I'm expert on, then I know to ignore some other things they say - some doesn't add up, as I'll explain.

First, a quick course on fission - yes, I know I'm in some danger of writing a disorganized book here, but we're halfway there anyway.

Fission of U or Pu gives off roughly 2.5 or 2.8 neutrons per fission, most right away, some milliseconds later (a good thing or reactors would be hard to control). These neutrons are fast (we say the spectrum goes to about 2 million electron volts, or ev - hauling ass in layman's terms).
In what seems like it's counter-intuitive, this means that they have a very small "cross section" to create more fission - slow neutrons do better (many thousands/one) and are actually attracted into the nuclei. Only extremely fast neutrons (as are given off by some fusion reactions) can prompt-fission things like U-238. So, to get to a chain reaction, you (in general) need fuel enriched in either U-235 or Pu which can fission with slow neutrons.

Here's the issue. U-238 eats medium speed neutrons like pac man - huge cross section for medium speed ones, and this breeds it into Pu, but doesn't make heat to speak of. So after a fission, you have to find a way to slow them down to "thermal" speeds (.025 eV) before letting them back into any fuel that has U 238 in it (everything but bombs, in general, it's hard/expensive to get rid of and keep only the part you want).

This is why Fermi had to break up his fuel into "chunks" and also the "moderator" which is some substance (carbon in his case, light water in most modern reactors, heavy water in some the Canadians make - more on that later). Fermi used carbon, which was insanely difficult to purify well enough that in the process of slowing neutrons down by collisions with the carbon, they didn't get "eaten" by even extremely low levels of boron found in most sources of carbon - and since we have zero control over which way neutrons come out, you have to make a reactor of a certain volume to surface area such that the ones that escape out the sides aren't so many you still have enough left to get a chain reaction. In fact, carbon of the grade Fermi required is still a state secret. You can't buy it, and you can't find out how they did it. It only takes PPB of boron to ruin it for reactors. In a beaurocratic foul up I'm sure you'll find it easy to believe - I can buy and have bought heavy water, which is better anyway.

Light water, regular H2O, is a decent moderator, but you lose some neutrons to it too - sometimes one will be captured by one of the H's and make it into a D. This is why enriched fuel is required for light water reactors. Basically, the water moderator eats too many of the neutrons to make a natural uranium reactor ever go critical no matter what you do. It's actually quite a difficult task.

Heavy water is the best moderator we know about. D's (deuterium is one proton and one neutron and what I use for fuel here - for completely other reasons) just don't capture neutrons, but weighing only about twice a neutron, are really good at slowing them down in collisions. You want light atoms for this job. For example, bouncing a bb off a bowling ball merely deflects the bb without slowing it down much - almost no energy is imparted to the bowling ball in the "momentum is conserved" equation. The Canadians use this, since heavy water is so non-neutron absorbing that you don't even need to enrich the Uranium (remember, this was something we worried a lot about in WWII with the Germans and their heavy water plant up north - and did suicide missions to put a stop to). If you've got to do fission at all, I like the Canadian way better than most. Heavy water is nowadays not so expensive to make, particularly for them, since you can process regular water to get the 7 parts in 1000 heavy out, with enough electricity - and they have more electricity from hydro than they can pipe down here to sell us. So, like moonshine, you make your product more valuable per size, and ship that instead(!). Same idea.

So, you need chunked up fuel, separated by a moderator. This allows a neutron emitted by a chunk of fuel to slow down all the way to "thermal" or about .025 ev, before encountering any more fuel - most make it right out of a fuel pellet/rod at full speed, since nothing much absorbs fast neutrons, and it's the bb and bowling ball - mass 1 vs 235 in this case (or 238 or 9). Without these things (or using pure 235 or Pu and a different set of special cases) you can't have a chain reaction, period. As luck would have it, when a reactor gets hot - atoms are moving fast, and the doppler effect takes neutrons back out of "thermal" status to a higher energy that isn't as good at making a chain reaction - they are somewhat self limiting - a good thing.

Pure U235 or Pu239 are only used in bombs, as the expense is "out of this world" to get either one pure enough, and free of spontaneous neutron emitters (odd isotopes of Pu and U and Cf do that) - for reasons I probably shouldn't mention here. Too much spontaneous neutron emission means the bomb starts to go off before it's fully pushed together, and is a fizzle - like the last one the Norks tried. That or one other easy mistake is almost certainly the reason they don't really have a good bomb yet.

OK, back to reactors. You need a large volume to surface area ratio such that at least one of those 2.5-2.8 neutrons is successfully slowed, and is captured by a fissile atom (U238 isn't fissile in this situation but does eat some too and is bred into Pu-239 after a beta decay, which is fissle). So a couple new rods (what idiot would put them in a water pool, they're not even very radioactive, make little heat etc etc, and there is danger in slowing any neutrons around them).

If this is sounding complex, man you have no idea - when you start taking into account the changing fuel composition, which parts of the reactor are hotter than others, how much neutron eating poison has built up in the fuel, and so on - it's hairy, and practically the entire periodic table gets involved. Only now we also have unstable isotopes that don't normally exist in nature, and we are not only worried about their chemistry, but also about their nuclear cross sections for eating neutrons and other issues.
Super-hairy. Probably about 100 people on earth actually "get it".

So back to 1. Fuel rods, whether U type or MOX (mixed oxides of U and Pu, used to use up all the spurious bomb parts the world thankfully thinks it no longer needs - we've already used all we could buy from Russia ourselves) are oxides of the metals, compressed into pellets, clad in Zirconium. Do we know what type of rods they had? I know they did use some MOX, but I don't know what they used in this particular set of reactors. It makes a small difference to some of the answers, as MOX is a little more fissile with fast neutrons than regular enriched U is.

The reason for the zirconium is that zirconium is just about the only element that doesn't absorb either fast or slow neutrons, that will also handle hot water and all the rest of the conditions - which are hairy, as mentioned.

Zirconium is a bit flammable - about like a lighter flint (which is misch metal, another thing, but they really are about the same re flammability) - nice sparks when filed.
Lighter flints decompose water at room temp - zirconium doesn't.
Exposure to air does nothing at all to it, and the fuel is super-hermetically sealed as stacked pellets in each rod. It has to be super hermetic, because you don't want water leaking in - but the more important reason is you don't want radioactive xenon or radon gas leaking out - you want them to decay in there to solids. These rods are designed therefore to withstand quite a lot of internal pressure. And external pressure too - you have to pressurize the primary cooling/moderating water quite a lot to keep it from boiling. You work around NASA? These things would be the best built things you've ever seen, no kidding.

There is absolutely no reason air is a problem, and dunking them in a pool is just foolish - I'd question the source's reliability on that one. I've never seen a lighter flint spontaneously ignite (it's different stuff, but not so as you could tell with a file or grinding wheel) - the filed off bits burn, that's it. Very hard to light on fire in bulk without getting all of it white hot first, and maybe using pure oxygen or fluorine. Yellow hot water will "burn it" but that's a rather hard case to achieve - possible, and it looks like it happened somehow there - normally a pressure relief would have (and probably did) open up first, so not much water (which at that point would be extremely thin vapor, not much of it) was around, and it's likely that's why we can even talk about this at all - most of the rods didn't burn through or melt, in other words, which could have been quite the mess (not a bomb, just a hell of a mess). Again, with no water (moderator), no fission, when there's U-238 in the mix. So a meltdown is just that - you get a hot pool of fuel, that stays hot a long time, but that's it.

If they have a whole reactor's worth of new rods in a pool, and spaced them just so - yes, you could get a chain reaction, but "just so" doesn't happen by accident with this particular class of materials (you can have a mistake with pure Pu, easily, however, which is (one reason) why NO ONE EVER uses it for anything but weapons, and uses at most a few percent in reactors). But here's what happens - heat is generated, the water boils (it's a pool, not a pressure vessel) and that removes the moderator, the chain reaction is self regulating and stops since steam is a bad moderator - not dense enough - the bubbles don't moderate. In fact, there's a reactor design called the "water boiler" that does just this - it's highly enriched U nitrate dissolved in water, and the boiling keeps it under control automatically. A couple universities had (and may still have) them as very hot neutron sources.

I'd question (but without a definitive source, I can't necessarily heap scorn on) that whole idea.
I'd have to ask a fission reactor operator if they ever, ever, put new fuel rods under water, and why. It's kind of a don't ask and I won't tell (or reveal I don't know) business.

I doubt they do. Before any fission byproducts build up, U and Pu mainly emit alpha rays that don't make it through the cladding. Pure Pu will get warm from it's natural alpha decay rate (fast). But that's all - warm to the touch. A mox rod might not even get warm, and certainly isn't very radioactive outside the rod - that's for Hollywood, not real life. Zirconium is pretty air-proof. That one sets off my BS detector, is all I can say for now.

2. Hell, they can't get close enough for a good look...of course they can't locate them. This stuff is evil! Yes, I'm sure the cores are leaking - water - which may have nasty stuff in it (obviously it does) from a few rods that melted or burned through (more likely but it doesn't matter how a hole got there if there is one). This is, I'm pretty sure, the source of the radioactive "hot" water they are trying to keep in all those makeshift tanks, and trying to filter the nasty stuff out so they can recycle it both it and the water. It does not bode well for the ground water nearby.

However, in an accidental test, a US bomb research/mauf facility had a similar leak - right after WWII, of very similar (actually, nastier) stuff, it went into the ground and since WWII has made it ~300 yards. Ground water is not a river flowing fast. By the time they figure it makes it off-campus, it'll be safe again(!). Remember, no one lives near Fuk any more and won't for quite awhile, it's not a huge worry till they do.

The ocean would be both a better and worse place for that - it's big and would dilute it such that you really had to work hard (evaporate maybe a few tons of ocean water, remove all the salt, then measure to even see it). But before that dilution, near Japanese shores, it could do some real damage to the ecosystem (which would be short lived and soon buried under silt and safe again).

And the ocean is a rocket compared to ground water in re motion and mixing. Basically, there's so much ocean that by the time you're a few hundred miles off Japan, it won't matter one bit, but closer in, not so great. Hah, the only guys who really hate the Japanese and might toss a bomb at them are too close for comfort to do that!

Yes, decontaminating that water is a pure bitch (pardon my french, it's called for here). First you have particulates, that's pretty easy. But then you have soluble compounds, like say cesium hydroxide. There might be some radioactive iodine, but that's mostly already decayed (and this is an issue I have with my sodium iodide gamma ray scintillators - exposure to a lot of neutrons makes some of the I radioactive, and you see the line whether an external source is there or not, you have to wait months for it to cool down if exposed to too many fusor runs for example). But it's been many months, and I assume by now the iodine threat is a thing of the past.

So, zeolite (selective filtering), chemical reactions that precipitate things out, stuff like that, are required. Since fission is a semi-random process - there are a lot of different elements in the by-products, and more are created when the radioactive byproducts beta-decay (the usual way for them, since there are too many neutrons for those smaller atoms, sometimes one emits an electron and becomes a proton.)

What I heard, though, is that in fact they are filtering the water well enough for their needs, and what happened is someone (or some animal perhaps) knocked open a drain valve, and that's our current issue. Saw the pic of that - it's just a common ball valve with a lever handle, easy to upset. Oops.
In fact, under much less stress, I made that mistake today myself, getting water for my new system - I left the ball valve on my "go get water tank" half open and didn't realize it till the tank was half full, since I was pumping it in faster than it was leaking out...then I saw water pouring out of my tailgate and did the O s**t thing.

Not all that water is "incredibly radioactive". The raw stuff is (right after coming out of the core), and after what I understand is pass 1 of 3, it's still pretty hot - and that's what leaked if my source is correct. After 2, not so bad, after 3, ready to run back through, and safe to be around and get splashed with and so on. I believe, but do not know for certain that these three passes are of various types for the reasons I gave above - some mechanical "dirt" filtering, some zeolite type stuff, some chemical precipitation reactions and a final filtering so the nasty precipitates don't get washed out into the "pure" stuff.

At least that's what I think is true. Your first question gives me some questions I don't have answers to - it doesn't make sense to me, but it might to someone I could ask. I've never, ever heard of fresh fuel put into water for the heck of it. It's a dumb idea to bring it near any moderator till you're ready to stuff it in the core. That's nuke 101, not grad student stuff.

Not that these guys haven't pulled a few serious boners, as I started off saying. The only reason I could think of is they might have some automated process for putting things in and out of pools and like just using the machines, but it's still VERY stupid, though not for the fear-monger reasons.

The old rods make a ton of heat - from a 1gw reactor (billion watt) at our end-of-life for fuel, the rods decay of fission byproducts make 8 Mw (millions watts) heat so need artificial cooling. The Japanese go to around 12 Mw from decay before pulling them (they say), which is not smart but saves money. That's why they have the pools.
That number is not for one rod, it's for all of them.

Oh, one pertinent fact - old fuel isn't as reactive, fission wise, as new, even though it's hot as hell.
The reason is, some of the byproducts eat neutrons (they're called reactor poisons for that reason).

Almost all the reactors designed in the past 40 or so years (these were earlier, so I dunno) use a boron compound in water to control the reaction rate, using less as the fuel ages due to those poisons - you don't need to add as much artificial poison (borax, basically) to keep things in line.

Very little is controlled by control rods, from the beginning till now. They just do that final 1% or so adjustment in things, though Fermi's reactor, being first, had many that would auto-drop (for a certain geiger counter reading) since they didn't know enough to be sure they weren't making a bomb - they didn't know about non-prompt neutrons then. But yes, if you "scram" a reactor, it quits fissioning, which they claim did work, and for now, I believe that - it's so hard to make it work and so easy to make it not be critical, it just doesn't take much to shut one off.

That is, as far as fission goes. But if you've been running awhile - there's all those super radioactive byproducts that don't need fission, just normal beta decay - to make heat/energy/nasty dna damage if you get that in you. That's our 8 megawatt limit, or better stated, the reason for that.
We don't want to have those turkeys just melt when we pull them out. Remember, though, that a reactor has a lot of rods that those 8mw are distributed around.

Background info - the reason we and almost everyone uses boron to control the reactor is that putting a control rod partway into one messes up the distribution of fission - near the rod, it stops. You get non-uniform fuel usage that way, it's a real problem to keep under control if part of your reactor is a lot more chain-reactive than some other part. Trying to use zillions of tiny rods, well, that's just not practical or reliable. It's easy to re-fit (and I thought they all were) for using boron compound in the primary water loop, which is under high pressure and not boiling due to that - you just add some borax to it. That water in the primary loop becomes part heavy water due to some neutron capture, and very slightly radioactive, but not so bad. It's still the reason they use two loops, one to get the heat out of the core, highly pressurized and so non-boiling, and another loop that uses tubes full of that primary coolant as the heater of a boiler in what is otherwise a conventional steam power plant. Normally, then in the event of some sort of accident with the primary loop (like it getting exposed to unclad used fuel) then won't propagate a problem, and it's relatively easy to fix in that case.

Couldn't get this up here, so I loaded it to a "secret" part of my site. 4 pages from Halliday saying more or less the same, but from the real deal, not just me. And in fact, this was the textbook used to train most Japanese Nuclear Physicists. I highly recommend it - too bad they didn't read it well. Actually, they probably did. They just don't put physicists in the job of controlling things like this.

http://www.coultersmithing.com/data/Icons/Halliday1.gif
http://www.coultersmithing.com/data/Icons/Halliday2.gif

I know ancona will have fun searching through the coultersmithing.com/data directory, particularly the /icons subdir (mostly my collection of funnies/satirical pix). Go for it guys, but if you find anything copyrighted, you didn't get it from me, right?
 
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FWIW, my personal stance on all this looks kind of like this.

Fission power is scientifically possible to do, safely, and with great profit and almost no waste.

That low grade stuff, the stuff people worry they have to keep for thousands of years? Hell, it's called reactor fuel once you remove the poisons. Reprocess and put it back into one. Doh! Then there's a lot of super hot stuff from a decade of running - whole entire pounds of the nastiest stuff there is - but it gets cold in a human lifetime and a pounds (vs thousands of tons) are easy to store with safety (or use in medical apps and thermal generators for NASA and other things like that - in fact there's a shortage of the U isotope NASA uses for thermal batteries in deep space probes where solar won't do, TC-99 for hospitals and so on - all readily available by reprocessing waste).

Much of the low grade waste is actually just slightly hot stainless steel. You wouldn't want to sleep inside one of those pipes that have been replaced - but while it can be large, it's not deadly at 10 feet or anything. And there's not all that much of it anyway, they rarely tear these things down to replace that. Could be just a big pile going to a landfill now and then and no bad consequences at all.

However, one worst case accident could render an area the size of several states - or a Japanese island, uninhabitable for quite awhile - say a couple human lifetimes. We haven't had one of those yet...but we could under the existing structure. I don't think Fuk is one, at least not yet, but we'll be watching to see what new bungles (like putting a ball valve 6" off the ground at a tank, with "off" being lever up, on being lever horizontal, so anything can flip it open) they can manage there.

This is of course, what allows the fear mongers to operate - that little germ of truth that helps sell the big lie at a profit. It really IS that complex as noted above. They don't "get it" and count on a lot of others "not getting it" either - easy sell. Fear used to sell and manipulate? Where else do we see that in society? It's part of human nature, which really hasn't changed all that much since we came out of the caves. It's the spawn of the saying "the four most dangerous words on the markets are it's diferent this time" - they mean human nature. Actually, some things are different this time, but that's another rant (think, for the first time in history, instead of trade wars and competitive devaluation, we suddenly see all the central banks working together to devalue it all at once). The question is, prisoner's dilemma - does someone defect - he who cheats first cheats best, and they all know it.

We're so shy of the real numbers we need on probability, despite a ton of academic studies that it's not really possible to calculate the cost/benefit ratio with any confidence at this point, since the cost of an outlier case (black swan) is so incredibly high. And frankly, I don't trust the ivory tower types, I kick their ass myself scientifically all the time. "In theory, practice and theory are the same, but in practice they are not" - comes to mind.

Sociologically, it's impossible in the current environment. And we have lots of proof on that.

This isn't like even a coal plant (which is more complex than you'd think). Even if it's been running smoothly for months, you can't stop watching for even a second. The systems are so complex that even a very tiny rate of failure on each part means something is always failing. There is zero time to take the night off for hookers and blow. For fun, take a number near one - say .99, and see what power you have to raise it to on a calculator to get a reliability of "you're screwed, 50% chance of failure at any instant". The number of individually critical systems in a fission plant is huge (the exponent). Academics tend to shine that on - goal seek the numbers, since the truth is too hard to take.

In a good system - and we are getting there but only on paper - you would reprocess all your fuel (gives you about 130+ times more available for use, we only use a few percent of the active ingredients now). But we don't do it because we're so damn worried about security. Doing it makes the waste problem virtually disappear, though.

At certain steps in the reprocessing, there's bomb grade or nearly stuff that could be stolen or misdirected - or go prompt critical in processing, and it's dangerous to work with - the Japanese, to cite just one, have had several prompt-criticality events in their reprocessing, when someone obviously an idiot decided to go from 5 gallon batches to drum quantities to save money and get product out the door quicker. They even got away with it for awhile, but sooner or later...

Note, nothing ever went bang, but they accidentally created a critical reactor in a drum without any of the normal containment/safety gear around, and right next to humans, some of whom died pretty quick. This stuff requires a level of respect mankind as a whole hasn't demonstrated they are capable of with any consistency. Sure, there are some truly responsible enough - but the money guys don't hire them or give them the authority to be responsible about it all.


When money runs the show - and it does, worldwide, and things can be externalized - which we know is the case (privatize profit, socialize losses, sound familiar? It's not just the banks...), we can't do this stuff safely. There are too many incentives to cut corners - even with coal plants actually spewing more mercury and radioactives into the world than nukes (for now) - that the power company themselves don't have to pay for cleaning it up. Note I'm not even speaking to things like global warming, which none of us can afford to fix - we're not even sure that's possible at this point. We have the EPA (taxpayers) instead. Same issues as with the banks. And EPA moves a mountain to clean up a molehill, just like any .gov agency does, since that employs more grunts for the 'crats to oversee, which tends to increase their pay and job title. Same old incentives to do the wrong thing - everywhere.

All this is one of the reasons I'm working on fusion - it takes away a lot of that, assuming you can get it to fly.

The other reason is disgust with academic "big science" who seem to have missed quite a lot of "low hanging fruit" - following the money and perks rather than solving the problems like any real engineer would concentrate on doing. They seem to have the attitude that tenure, perks, the cute secretary, are what matters, and that actually solving the problem puts them out of a job.

With "only" about half a million bucks and two years - I've beaten them at fusion by a fat factor, with one guy part time (me) and another very part time (one day a month more or less). Compared to governments spending about a bil a year or more trying for the last three-five decades? True, I've gotten some useful hints from prior work - hell, we all do. But really? They suck, I'm only middling good.

Therefore, one of my main motivating sayings is "if not me, who?" because no one else who could is even trying hard - and it's important to get this, or we have an (lack of cheap) energy-based collapse that will make other human disasters look tiny by comparison. Maybe even in my own lifetime.
 
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