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Old 04-03-2013, 02:09 PM   #1
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Analysis please...

Hi Guys...

I'm trying to get a feel for the likely effects of the coming economic collapse on the country where I am living, Ecuador.

The country uses the dollar exclusively and is therefore tied to the doomed US economic policy of fiat printing.

What would the effects on this country be though?

Ecuador's main exports are Oil, Minerals, & Food, and tourism plays a big role in the country's economy.

I'm assuming that the ongoing currency devaluations, would be good for exports here, meaning a possibly positive net effect, especially compared to the US, but the US is a major trading partner, so I guess the overall effect may well be negative...

Anybody got any clues as to what the effects of a global economic collapse would be here?

Is being tied to the dollar likely to be incredibly bad, or fairly neutral?

Muchas gracias....

AgNostic

Potentially Useful figures:

Gross external debt : $15 billion
Public debt 20.2% of GDP
GDP $115 billion

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ecuador
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:27 PM   #2
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I'm no expert, so just my but at first glance it looks like Ecuador should be OK.

In a global collapse some countries wouldn't be able to import energy and food with their worthless fiat anymore, so you are in a good position to have an abundance of those things.

I'd imagine the poor in Ecuador don't get major handouts from the government there in terms of free food, housing, pension, medical etc. so they are used to 'taking care of themselves', the problem in the west is such a large portion of the population is dependent on the state and the chaos when these handouts stop will be a big part of the problem.

You also have a low public debt level, a decent amount of gold for your GDP and 6.5 Billion barrels of proven oil reserves so there is something to 'back' a non dollar currency I guess.
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:44 PM   #3
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Great that's exactly the sort of insight I was looking for...

Makes total sense..

Thanks Unbeatable....

What would it be like though as the dollar starts to fail spectacularly? Would the debasement of the currency have dramatic effects here too, or only for savers?

Last edited by AgNostic; 04-03-2013 at 03:47 PM.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:00 PM   #4
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I think you might have a better idea than us Westerners what that will be like.

It says on Wikipedia you used to use sucres but in 1999 you had a currency crisis with a big drop in GDP, 50% inflation & a 65% currency devaluation, which is why you switched to the US Dollar.
I think it will probably be similar except this time you will be leaving the dollar for your own currency or who knows maybe even the Yuan.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:02 PM   #5
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Anything measured by U.S. dollars would show devastating effects. I would think that as long as your country doesn't do a Zimbabwe dance with your money, you should be ok as long as you avoid dollars.

International trading would take temporary hits, but only until the markets settled on something to replace the dollar. Overall, I would rather be there than here when the SHTF.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:08 PM   #6
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Thanks Unbeatable... I'm an Ex-Pat, not an Ecuadorian national though, so have little knowledge of previous events...

That's the point though Mmerlinn... everything is measured in US dollars here!! We are totally at the mercy of the US Fed...

Last edited by AgNostic; 04-03-2013 at 04:14 PM.
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:12 PM   #7
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Musing off the top of my ahead here... Assuming there is a economic collapse (and not a NWO currency reboot), you might anticipate a breakdown in global trade. Countries that are largely self sufficient for energy and food should make out OK as they are less dependent upon foreign trade to maintain standards of living. In that regards, I'd imagine Ecuador will be in good shape. Ecuador's farming/food industry is not as energy intensive as here in the USA (and not as centralized either, so costs for distribution are likely lower).
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:17 PM   #8
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Thanks PMBug...

Interested to know how you see a NWO currency reboot playing out, both generally and in relation to Ecuador?
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Old 04-04-2013, 07:04 AM   #9
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I suppose it could happen much the same way an individual country devalues the currency overnight. Banks freeze accounts and the existing currency(ies) is (are) exchanged for new one at devalued ratio.

It's not like the idea hasn't been discussed by the IMF / G8 / G20 crowd for several years now.
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Old 04-04-2013, 11:53 AM   #10
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All the analysis above , assumes playing field stays even, market forces, supply & demand etc. Guys do not underestimate the willingness for corruption in the political classes in smaller, less powerful countries. Africa is a prime example, where immensely resource-rich countries, are hardly getting anything from it for their people - apart from the extremely small and corrupted to the core elites.

There is a saying in polish, "Before fat one gets skinny, a skinny one starves to death" - and there's much more wisdom in it, than calories counting . I don't think there will be place on this planet, to go smoothly through global economic collapse (or dollar collapse), or painlessly "gain" anything in the process - not a chance. I think that the better anyone is prepared on a personal level, the bigger chance one has, that his own adjustment process will be less painful than average Joe's (and it might just as well be the difference between life and death, ultimately).
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