Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > PM Bug

Like Tree21Likes

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 01-12-2012, 08:35 AM   #1
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 154
Liked: 54 times
Empire Club Outlook 2012: Why Rising Debt Will Lead to $10,000 Gold

PMBug, Unobtanium and ancona like this.
escobar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 10:24 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,064
Liked: 2454 times
I listened to the whole presentation. Monotone delivery, but excellent content. Nice find and thanks for sharing.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 10:49 AM   #3
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 154
Liked: 54 times
haha yeah. Here is his presentation in print:

http://blog.bmgbullion.com/authors/n...-outlook-2012/
escobar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 12:49 PM   #4
n00b
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5
Liked: 3 times
Unlike Alex Jones, this guy doesn't sensationalize the truth. I enjoyed all three panelists speeches. You could have heard a pin drop in that room when Nick was speaking. It was kind of spooky. I think a few attending may have swallowed the red pill after that presentation.
ancona likes this.
bluecollargoldtieguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 01:13 PM   #5
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
Wow. That's good stuff!
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 02:37 PM   #6
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Originally Posted by bluecollargoldtieguy View Post:
Unlike Alex Jones, this guy doesn't sensationalize the truth. I enjoyed all three panelists speeches. You could have heard a pin drop in that room when Nick was speaking. It was kind of spooky. I think a few attending may have swallowed the red pill after that presentation.
The problem with alex jones is that he thinks the "global elite" are the cause of pretty much everything. Not everything is planned and the amount of control they have over everything is greatly exaggerated.
rblong2us and Silver_Bug like this.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 02:38 PM   #7
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 154
Liked: 54 times
Have been poking around his sight. Some great info there. There is an e-book section where you can get some great gold/inflation/economic books for free. great stuff!
escobar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 03:02 PM   #8
n00b
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5
Liked: 3 times
I agree with you, Derek. People need to learn the difference between cooperation, collusion and conspiracy. I find I think better with my tin-foil hat off.
ancona likes this.
bluecollargoldtieguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 03:32 PM   #9
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 146
Liked: 78 times
I don't mind the Alex Jones' type of journalism. You need some people to go extreme in one way to balance out the effects of mainstream media. And then its up to you to filter out the signal from the noise.

Excellent article. But its another article which doesn't address the true unknown, in my opinion, which is if gold hits $10K, will the powers that be, actually allow us to benefit from this?

When this happens, the 1% who have PMs are truly going to be enriched and the other 99% are truly going to think the 1% robbed them blind. Now the .1%, with real power are going to protected through the government but the other .9% (the gold bugs) are going to demonized and made the scapegoat.

Are we ready for that?
Shelby-villian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2012, 05:47 PM   #10
Predaceous stink bug
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 154
Liked: 54 times
I think this pt is overplayed. Add up the mkt caps of apple, google, msft, exxon, maybe add a couple more and you get the value you would need to get gold to 10k. Most blue collar people and poor people dont own stocks. Are there riots in the st about those companies?

There are many 20 something billionares from FB, Twitter, google etc. That is much more concentrated visible wealth vs some gold bugs. I dont see people going crazy about that.

just another fear tactic and propaganda.
escobar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2012, 09:32 AM   #11
Fly on the wall
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Geneva
Posts: 34
Liked: 7 times
Originally Posted by dereksatkinson View Post:
The problem with alex jones is that he thinks the "global elite" are the cause of pretty much everything. Not everything is planned and the amount of control they have over everything is greatly exaggerated.
Spot on! No elite in history was/is responsible for everything, knows everything or controls everything. Why? Very simple: because they are not Gods. They are neither omniscient nor omnipotent. They are just faulty humans.
Silver_Bug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2012, 09:51 AM   #12
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Originally Posted by Silver_Bug View Post:
Spot on! No elite in history was/is responsible for everything, knows everything or controls everything. Why? Very simple: because they are not Gods. They are neither omniscient nor omnipotent. They are just faulty humans.
That's not to say that people are not working towards the goals he discusses.. IE.. World Government. There are people that believe in it and it's not a conspiracy. It's just how certain people view how the world should operate.

There are also plenty of people who are eugenicists and you probably meet them in your daily life. When someone talks population control... It's rare they see the slippery slope. My father in law needs a mental beating for his view on that.

if we continue this discussion, it should probably be in a different thread lol
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2012, 07:18 PM   #13
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
Originally Posted by escobar View Post:
I think this pt is overplayed. Add up the mkt caps of apple, google, msft, exxon, maybe add a couple more and you get the value you would need to get gold to 10k. Most blue collar people and poor people dont own stocks. Are there riots in the st about those companies?
Hi escobar,

not to argue on something that really is an unknown, but where do you think all that money that is being "quantatively eased" (ie printed out of nothing) eventually go? In the short run, I believe it will flood the markets, increasing it's value, leading to a violent bull, followed by another collapse (eh, you can only blow all these bubbles so much). And it will eventually end up in the REAL, reliable stores of value, like PMs. This market convulsions are inevitable, it is fiat money kicking the dust, before dying.

good piece about the fundamentals (or the lack thereof) behind the recent moves:


It is just my humble opinion, but one that seems to be a logical conclusion.
escobar and ancona like this.
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2012, 08:01 PM   #14
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
Right on Bushi. I think whenever the banks get the go from the oval office, we'll see a flood of cash quite unlike anything ever before seen. Our economy will see an influx of cash that cannot be appropriately handled, and so it will cause m,massive inflation.

But that's just my opinion.
Silver_Bug likes this.
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2012, 08:42 PM   #15
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
Of course, since gold is the benchmark of monetary value, what you really mean here is the dollar goes down factor of 5 or 6. Since paychecks always lag inflation, that means a lot of pain for a heck of a lot of people - think gas over $20/gal and so on.

I think it's the end of the world as we know it before that happens - war, internal or external and so on. This speculation is just gold-bug porn - it can't happen without some other real major issues coming up before that will destroy the world as we know it utterly. And your gold eagle, though now worth 10k, will still only buy about the same amount of stuff it does now. You can't have it both ways.
ancona and bushi like this.
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2012, 09:42 PM   #16
Fly on the wall
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Geneva
Posts: 34
Liked: 7 times
You really think it is impossible for the purchasing power of gold to rise? In very inflationary times as ours it is possible for gold`s purchasing power to rise. Also in times of major currency collapse gold can rise in purchasing power.
ancona and bushi like this.
Silver_Bug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2012, 10:07 AM   #17
Yellow Jacket
 
ancona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Waaay south
Posts: 3,370
Liked: 2046 times
Originally Posted by Silver_Bug View Post:
You really think it is impossible for the purchasing power of gold to rise? In very inflationary times as ours it is possible for gold`s purchasing power to rise. Also in times of major currency collapse gold can rise in purchasing power.
I agree to teh extent that when a currency goes hyper, you reach a point where no one wants them.....kind of like Zimbabwe, and the alternatives begin to be used instead. Gold turned out to be the ultimate store of wealth in 'Zim, but i think it was only because there were other fiat vehicles that were considered stable, such as the Swiss Franc, USD, Euro, etc. When all fiat fails, I believe the ultimate store of value will be food, fuel, bullets and band aids.
rblong2us likes this.
__________________
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
ancona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2012, 11:43 AM   #18
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
...only because there were other fiat vehicles that were considered stable, such as the Swiss Franc, USD, Euro, etc. When all fiat fails, I believe the ultimate store of value will be food, fuel, bullets and band aids.
...see, in the "end of days" scenario, gold/silver ARE the ultimate store of wealth, because they always were, in less complex societies/economies, and because they have all the necessary qualities that money need to have. The things you mention (necessities) will go up ballistic in price (fiat) in the high/hyperinflationary environment, but they do not expose the required qualities of money. All of them are highly perishable (and by design and necessity so), so you cannot really use them as money. As highly desirable items in barter, yes, but they cannot perform the function of money, per se. Oh, and rightly DCFusor, it is not exactly that these basic commodities are getting up in value (although in fact they ARE, since they become scarce and much more desirable than iPads) as much as the high/hyperinflation wipes the rest of the purchasing power from the fiat.

I think that crucial thing to analyse would be the ratios of all important physical stuff against gold, I wouldn't mind to see the charts comparing the ratios of gold/silver, gold/arable land, gold/food, in the economies that have suffered hyperinflation. IT would be also interesting to see the black market ratios of whatever currency became de-facto locally accepted replacement for a failed local fiat, like in Zimbabwe I believe it was USD, in Poland it was USD and DM (at some stage DM were considered more desirable). Once we assume that this "strong, external fiat currency" in the historical cases will be replaced by gold/silver (or other non-fiat replacement - I am intrigued by BitCoins, I think the ideas backing them are simply genius - assuming grid & internet is still there, which I will not bank on!) in the future case of systemic fiat failure, we could draw some conclusions in terms of possible real value (wealth) gains/losses of PMs against other stuff.

I personally believe that PMs will appreciate in real-world value, since they become widely accepted as money and widely desired - as opposed to current situation, where they are desired by few, and in the physical form - by even fewer . Also, all the current market manipulations by governments are happening in fiat money, so it is very likely the effects of these artificial manipulations will backfire at the today's beneficiaries (ie: govt subsidies to arable land in EU, making it prohibitively expensive in a FIAT currency of today - if the fiat became worthless, and a farmer would not buy a liter of diesel for a billion of whatever paper shillings, because no one will be exchanging it for that paper with him, that land will suddenly get way less attractive. OR actually, it will get back to a normal, sustainable, market price*, that market would command, if it was the buyer's, and not the govt's business how to make it productive after the purchase).

Something very similar happened in communistic Poland, at the end of the era- you could buy basically anything, despite the official shortages of everything, and empty shelves in every shop - but only on the (semi)black market, and preferably, if paying in USD. Semi-black market - it is when the clerk in the shop tells you that there is no pork being delivered today, but after wink-wink-nod-nod, and exchanging less-than-official tender - pork suddenly materialized . Same with bigger transactions - there were always people wanting to sell a car, a house or a farm, but forget about official tender/channels, they were laughed at and dismissed.

But if so happened, that someone somehow have spend 10 years in New York, ripping asbestos from the skyscraper's roofs and was able to save and bring back say 10k USD in his shirt pocket, he became an equivalent of a local multi-millionaire, having a stash of widely accepted and wanted currency.

I think the same will most probably happened to the physical gold/silver, in case of systemic fiat currencies collapse - save the global war and the total end of societies/civilization. If you can hold it, you will probably benefit greatly from it.

If anything like stable society is to emerge after these shocks we start to experience, I firmly believe it will be something like BitCoins (assuming mild collapse scenario, and most of the infrastructure surviving), or Gold/Silver in a serious SHTF case, sending us back into 1800. Just look what was used back then, and assume it was mostly for pragmatic reasons (because it was)



*Disclaimer: I am talking about EU's sick subsidary policies for govt-regulated farming. Maybe it is slightly better than food megacorps, but only slightly, it puts the local farmers at the mercy of policymakers, or worse still, at the mercy of the govt officer approving grants.
ancona likes this.

Last edited by bushi; 01-19-2012 at 04:12 AM.
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2012, 05:04 AM   #19
Ground Beetle
 
bushi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 971
Liked: 554 times
Hello,

You know what, it just struck me, I will reiterate, because I think it is crucially important to plan an optimal "exit strategy" on PMs:

When the fiat monetary system fails on a global scale, people will start looking for alternatives. The same will happen in high/hyperinflation scenarios, for obvious reasons.

Traditionally, in deeply troubled countries, it was always a foreign currency, perceived as strong & stable. In many places in the world it used to be USD. In some, local currency was even replaced later on with that strong, stable one (Argentina-their local currency was linked 1:1 with USD, effectively replaced by, and lost control on their money supply/monetary policy). But the specific currency is not so much important, only to put things into a perspective. The point is, people have ALWAYS turned to something out of their government control (for obvious reasons), DESPITE all the efforts of their govts to stop them from doing that, and to something perceived as "stable, strong". If it happened, to be a ready made foreign currency (=money by design), well, so much better and pragmatic. But what if it will became increasingly obvious, that NO single currency is safe? Because ALL the govts are cranking up the presses and central banks' hard drives?

So I think it would be extremely valuable to analyze the buying power of such an external, strong currency in the troubled countries, to see how it performed before, during, and after the shock - right until the local currency stabilized back to normal.

IMHO, that foreign, strong currency, will be a perfect model for simulating the PMs buying power, in case of a global fiat meltdown (high/hyperinflation). It just seems to follow logically. Historically, that "replacement currency" had all the qualities, that PMs will have (or already have), in the above scenario, like:
1) it was out of local govt control, so they could not print it and inflate it even more, thus diminishing people's buying power, or destabilizing businesses, which could not put any price tag on anything (==PMs)
2) it was scarce (==PMs. And physical? hell yeah, comparing to the monstrous fiat bubble we are in, globally - there's NO WAY that PMs would provide enough supply of money for all that "monopoly money" floating above the REAL, tangible economy. So I guess there will be a lot of vanishing fiat capital in the future, despite PMs appreciating sharply)
3) it was widely perceived as stable (==PMs, even in today's propaganda environment, in anything but short term speculation - they are outperforming everything else)
4) it was widely desired by the people (my assumption/belief: just you wait, it will ==PM)
5) people were saving in them (my assumption/belief: just you wait, it will ==PM)
5) it was quite often made illegal by local govts (quite possible for PMs, if they start to threaten local fiats, confiscation laws in US are historical case, and not to mention totalitarian countries like former Soviet block, where western currencies were outright illegal for citizens to invest in/possess)

...It all just clicks, it seems..

Do you guys think it would be possible to analyze the above, somehow? I am new to the brave (or crazy?) financial world, so am totally green and don't even know where to look for that kind of data.

Regards,
h4rdware and ancona like this.

Last edited by bushi; 01-19-2012 at 05:15 AM.
bushi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2012, 06:12 AM   #20
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,064
Liked: 2454 times
bushi, typically in these cases, there is a devaluation immediately preceding (or in conjunction with) a peg to a foreign currency. Many people are expecting a devaluation of fiat to gold should gold be remonetized (there would have to be to make it work, not enough gold relative to the money supply at today's spot price).

I think you hit on the essential point though. Central banks are desperate to maintain confidence in their fiat instruments. They are abusing markets to keep up the debt money illusion. They are desperate to prevent flight into sound money (gold) because they lose their monopoly at that point.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
STRONG correlation between US debt ceiling and gold price swissaustrian PM Bug 40 10-25-2013 10:31 AM
PMs rising sharply - Iran war alert PMBug PM Bug 71 12-26-2012 04:28 PM
Bloomberg: Gold Traders Most Bullish in Month on Debt Crisis Unobtanium PM Bug 7 12-14-2011 03:17 PM
China reduces 2012 silver exports by 5%, could boost prices PMBug Silver Bug 0 11-15-2011 02:07 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.