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Old 12-10-2011, 06:57 PM   #1
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Lightbulb Nice breakout formation for gold and silver

To breakout or not to breakout is the question. We´ll soon see where the next major move goes: up or down...
Charts from lemetropolecafe.com

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Old 12-10-2011, 08:53 PM   #2
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Old school breakout formation:



j/k - it really feels like the metals are about to pop, but honestly, I expect most buying to be done in the physical market, so I'm not sure what to expect from the paper market.
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Old 12-12-2011, 06:14 AM   #3
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Here is a recent long term view of gold. Note that there is still some downside potential before it breaks out. I suspect that we will see another downdraft before we see a breakout to the upside.





.

Last edited by mmerlinn; 12-12-2011 at 12:15 PM. Reason: Resize image.
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Old 12-12-2011, 07:08 AM   #4
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mmerlinn - I like using tinypic.com to upload images to the web. tinypic will let you resize the image during the upload process and it's free - no membership required.
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Old 12-12-2011, 12:18 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
mmerlinn - I like using tinypic.com to upload images to the web. tinypic will let you resize the image during the upload process and it's free - no membership required.
That appears to be a good option for most people. It does not work for me. Resizing requires Flash and I uninstalled Flash years ago and have no intention of reinstalling that memory hog.

Regardless, I did figure out how to get a decent sized image up as you can see.
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Old 12-12-2011, 12:25 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
To breakout or not to breakout is the question. We´ll soon see where the next major move goes: up or down...
Looks like down for now since first thing this morning both gold and silver broke to the downside out of the triangles showing on your charts.

How far now? Looks like 1550 gold before Christmas to me. If silver follows, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, silver at 26 is a very real possibility.

Probably the last buying opportunity for months or years below 1700 for gold and 30 for silver. Time to dig out the dry powder.
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Old 12-12-2011, 12:39 PM   #7
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Unless the fed does something dramatic tomorrow, i think we see 1614 again.. The only thing that makes me cautious about calling for a big drop is that we don't have big volume.
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Old 12-12-2011, 01:05 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by dereksatkinson View Post:
Unless the fed does something dramatic tomorrow, i think we see 1614 again.. The only thing that makes me cautious about calling for a big drop is that we don't have big volume.
I expect a few more FOMC members to call for "more accommodative policies" than last time and the acknowledgement of "severe downside risks". But that´s it.
QE3 won´t be announced.
Maybe the ease collateral requirements like the ECB did.
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Old 12-12-2011, 01:07 PM   #9
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]I draw my trendlines a little different. Any of my trading systems - which have all done better than buy/hold this year - have been screaming "get out" for a little hile now. Since I think this is "transitory" I didn't - but picked up some GLL a few days back, which has looked like a good move. Time will tell - usually when you let your gut override a good system, you lose.

gld2.jpg


My trendlines skip most of the outliers caused by panic one way or the other, since reversion to within them has been very reliable. That's one reason I didn't jump out here. I did get faked out on the false breakout, sigh, but didn't lose much trading it.

Gee, looks like I could use a tip on how to resize images nicely for this board. Jpeg, after scaling to get into 90 something k, looks like crap, and only shows as a thumbnail. So I tried a .gif, like above, only to have the board convert it to jpeg which looked even worse - and still shove it into a thumbnail instead of a nice looking inline pic. Any hints?

Last edited by DCFusor; 12-12-2011 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 12-12-2011, 01:49 PM   #10
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Hey, thanks guys for helping me to get an opportunity to buy a wee bit more gold and silver for cheap upon my return. I really appreciate the favor!

Although if you would take Au down another $40 - $50 that would be even better too. Thanks in advance!



and



too!
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Old 12-12-2011, 01:59 PM   #11
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Since this morning, Silver has stabilized a lot. i think we had some institutional players get nervous and yank some paper. This is definitely not organic physical sales, it's paper. Probably leveraged paper at that.
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Old 12-13-2011, 12:57 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
]Gee, looks like I could use a tip on how to resize images nicely for this board. Jpeg, after scaling to get into 90 something k, looks like crap, and only shows as a thumbnail. So I tried a .gif, like above, only to have the board convert it to jpeg which looked even worse - and still shove it into a thumbnail instead of a nice looking inline pic. Any hints?
What I did was to size the gif to the size I wanted, then store it on my website. Then instead of making it an attachment, I linked it to my post. Upside is that I can control the size. Downside is that if I ever discontinue my website, the image vanishes off this board forever.
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Old 12-13-2011, 04:03 AM   #13
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IMO silver has more of a descending triangle (or flag) pattern which is typically bearish. Not only that but volume has seemed to decrease in the last few months. RSI above 40, no where near over sold, I think we could see more of a pull back in the paper market. But stay positive, this is a gift (probablly from the JP Morge) for us to use for our benefit. Be patient and get your hands on the physical and be prepared for dips.
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Old 12-13-2011, 07:25 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
...
Gee, looks like I could use a tip on how to resize images nicely for this board. Jpeg, after scaling to get into 90 something k, looks like crap, and only shows as a thumbnail. So I tried a .gif, like above, only to have the board convert it to jpeg which looked even worse - and still shove it into a thumbnail instead of a nice looking inline pic. Any hints?
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f11/pmbug...es-5/#post2091
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Old 12-13-2011, 09:26 AM   #15
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Here is the one I use:

http://webresizer.com/resizer/

It doesn't get any cheaper than free!
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