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Old 12-29-2011, 09:17 AM   #1
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Lightbulb Precious Metals SEASONALITY

Below are two charts showing the seasonality of both gold and silver. Interestingly, gold doesn´t seem to have a seasonal cycle. Silver, on the other hand, tends to have very strong spring months, a weak summer, and a good autumn/winter:



Also interesting:
Platinum

Palladium


Seems like it´s time to buy some palladium.

Last edited by swissaustrian; 12-29-2011 at 09:22 AM.
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Old 12-29-2011, 09:18 AM   #2
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Also take a look at copper
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Old 12-29-2011, 09:34 AM   #3
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It's always a good idea to check your assumptions when looking at something like this. If a fundamental change has occurred to the playing field, things may not play out as expected. CoT reports are showing that traders are abandoning the paper markets (at least in gold and silver) as open interest is plummeting in the wake of MF Global. I'm still not sure if this means it's easier for the commercials to move the markets or if dying volume is going to spark some short covering.
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Old 12-29-2011, 09:57 AM   #4
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Let me ask a really stupid question [please be patient......I can be pretty slow on the uptake sometimes].

What happens if suddenly, a huge portion of the 'longs' in the COMEX dump their positions, leaving only a massive short position concentrated in just a few hands? what if retail guys with only a few to maybe a few dozen contracts, all decide to exit en masse? Does this topple the ponzi? Does it absolutely crash PM prices to the point where there are literally no sellers? Do the shorts have to make good at extremely low prices if someone sticks it out and demands delivery of a half billion dollars worth of silver when it has been smashed below say.....10 bucks?
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Old 12-29-2011, 10:57 AM   #5
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SA, these charts aren't normalized for the long term uptrend. I've seen some that are (Ira's), and they DO show a seasonal bias when that is done, or at least it's much more obvious.

All the longs can't leave a market - someone has to buy what they sell, or they can't sell at any price - either way, someone still is long.
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Old 12-30-2011, 12:26 PM   #6
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There is something that I don't understand about these charts. Why is there a discontinuity from Dec 31 to Jan 1 on every chart?

In other words, it would seem logical that whatever the seasonal average is on Dec 31, the seasonal average for the very next day, on Jan 1, should be at least something close to what it was on Dec 31.

I must be missing something extremely obvious.
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Old 12-30-2011, 12:50 PM   #7
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Because the end the year higher than they started (on average). I believe the Y axis is showing % where they start the year at 100%.
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Old 12-30-2011, 02:53 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Because the end the year higher than they started (on average). I believe the Y axis is showing % where they start the year at 100%.
Duh, OK I see now, oh so clearly. Thanks PMB.
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Old 07-12-2012, 10:47 AM   #9
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According to Goldcore, July 12th is the best day of the year to buy gold from a seasonal point of view

Quote :
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion from a seasonal perspective is today, July 12.

The summer months normally see seasonal weakness and it is thus a good time to buy on the seasonal dip.

The Global and Mail reports that Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide shows that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion for a seasonal trade is from July 12th to October 9th (see news: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...28/?cmpid=rss1 ).

“The trade has been profitable during 11 of the past 14 periods.”

During the past 25 years, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a very significant 4.7% during the period.

The Globe and Mail notes that “traditionally, advances in gold during its period of seasonal strength is attributed to precious metal fabricators in India who purchase bullion to make into jewellery for the Indian wedding season that starts in late October. India is the second-biggest consumer of gold jewellery in the world behind China.”

The trend may also be due to more sophisticated investors using gold as a hedge and diversification and increasing allocations to gold during the late summer and early autumn months which traditionally see weakness in stock markets.

Timing markets is extremely difficult - even for the few successful traders. However, there are clear seasonal patterns that long term physical gold buyers can use to their advantage.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...nvestors-guide
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Old 10-04-2012, 02:26 PM   #10
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Good chart showing gold's seasonality during the current bull cycle (2000-2011).
October could be a little weak, but November should be awesome. Given Obomber's high reelection chances, I think Novermber 7th could be an interesting day

Source: http://www.silverdoctors.com/chart-o...big-nov-gains/

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Old 11-05-2012, 08:26 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
Given Obomber's high reelection chances, I think Novermber 7th could be an interesting day
I'm sticking to my prediction
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:27 AM   #12
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"Seasonality" is basically based around consumer habits. That impacts dealer purchases and behaviors. It's doesn't hold true 100% of the time because of the "era of deleveraging" we live in but it certainly helps market timing.

When we are in a period of seasonal weakness, I try to wait for the $40+ down days and do a little buying. At the same time, I don't buy when we are have 7+ days up in April/May.
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