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Old 08-16-2013, 02:21 PM   #1
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So, gold and silver prices go sky high

I almost got sick when I saw the silver prices today.

I was planning to stack up a bit, but 23-24 $ silver is just too high, so I am watching if it falls next week.

Seems like ETF buyings are up and the overall sentiment and predictions are strongly bullish for next week:
http://www.primevalues.org/market-wa...lver-spike.htm

I should have watched this on Wednesday, but I was away from the web and missed the beginning of the spike:

Watched Jim Rogers last week saying the gold correction ain't over yet. Well, if it was over, I missed the best opportunity.

Looking for an opportunity to back up the truck next week. But with these premiums under 25 $ it's almost impossible to buy. Even Philharmonics...

Crazy how fast this came...
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Old 08-16-2013, 02:23 PM   #2
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If you think 23 is too high, just wait until it moves into the 30s and 40s (and beyond). Did you see the discussion about dollar cost averaging?
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Old 08-16-2013, 02:41 PM   #3
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I guess I should buy a few ounces next week... probably I won't even wait until Monday, just that I'd have to scratch out some money from somewhere...

What's with the DCA?
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Old 08-16-2013, 04:01 PM   #4
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Potemkin,
Brother I have 8 dollar silver and I have 34 dollar silver, it all shines the same! I bought some a little while back and it actually helped my DCA. We can't worry about a buck or two since in the long haul, silver is extremely undervalued and once the paper exchanges are finally caught unable to deliver real metals, true price discovery will begin in earnest. Short a complete financial catastrophe, including a collapse of the derivative pyramid, silver and gold will hold nicely together. Even with a financial meltdown and derivative nuke, ultimately gold and silver will become king, b3ecause just as trust is fading for paper right now, in a complete breakdown gold and silver will be the ultimate victors.
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Old 08-16-2013, 04:02 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
I guess I should buy a few ounces next week... probably I won't even wait until Monday, just that I'd have to scratch out some money from somewhere...

What's with the DCA?
Some period of time ago, Bing and I went through thousands and thousands of dollars worth of halves from the banks and pulled the 90 and 40% silver out, returned the rest to the banks. Likewise, through a couple of odd transactions, I bought a lot of ASE'S and Republic of Texas rounds for five dollars an ounce. More recently, I have paid as much as 35 each for ASE's., also coinflation rates for junk silver. (gave a lady 2.50 each for 40% halves the other day, didn't really know what they were worth so just pulled a figure out of the air) If you AVERAGE the cost per ounce of all the silver that I have bought then you get the actual cost I have paid for it per ounce. If I were being accurate, then I would have to include interest in credit cards, S&H charges, etc. I suppose even the time going through the bank rolls. But actually I don't care. I've noticed that if you don't keep track, things accumulate. (including debt).

I don't have any gold, my wife buys gold. I was thinking if the ratio of silver to gold would tighten up then I would trade for some gold. Not now though.
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Old 08-16-2013, 05:07 PM   #6
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Potemkin,
You really need to stop wringing your hands so much about buying silver at $19 vs $23. Consider both $19 and $23 a gift right now, whichever happens to be spot when you have money to buy. You cannot go wrong with either one.

There is absolutely no reason to be sick with $23 silver prices. Don't wait for it to drop; you might be looking at $30-$40 if you wait too long. Just buy when you have cash, especially if the prices are anywhere in the twenties. Then after you buy, sleep well and don't worry.
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Old 08-16-2013, 05:41 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
...
What's with the DCA?
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/advic...html#post23905
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Old 08-16-2013, 05:59 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Unobtanium View Post:
Potemkin,
You really need to stop wringing your hands so much about buying silver at $19 vs $23. Consider both $19 and $23 a gift right now, whichever happens to be spot when you have money to buy. You cannot go wrong with either one.

There is absolutely no reason to be sick with $23 silver prices. Don't wait for it to drop; you might be looking at $30-$40 if you wait too long. Just buy when you have cash, especially if the prices are anywhere in the twenties. Then after you buy, sleep well and don't worry.
I have but one regret; that I have no cash to give to my local coin guy....
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Old 08-16-2013, 06:41 PM   #9
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I'm probably buying a little more of both Ag and Au here, to help my own Dollar Cost Average (DCA), since I got quite a lot at higher prices. My gold system (which kind of works on silver too) is saying, well, maybe in a day or two, it's time to dive in deep. Rogers could be right and the bottom not in on gold - but I kind of doubt it. My system doesn't let me pick bottoms, which I think might have been a little while back - that's where DCA shines, since you just pick up some all the time, and average out your price - you get at least some at the bottoms that way, even though you also get some at the tops.
Think of it as a "smoothing function" since we play the stacking game long term.

The trading game, well, that's another story. Follow those wiggles obsessively and trade them if you can. What I'm watching fairly closely is premiums for phyzz over paper - if they get above some amount my gut says is too much based on history - I short paper (because some of it's going to zero, a safe trade), and back up the truck on physical for real. And I mean a truck, not a compact car.

Something else I've been watching (sorry, still a little OT because it's gold) is PHYS vs GLD. When PHYS rises faster than GLD, that's the sign of real paper fear, since GLD doesn't even claim to really have the gold (read the prospectus) but PHYS does - in a vault in Canada, hence the higher management fees.

It's kind of semi-physical for those who haven't discovered how much better it is in the hand than in someone else's vault. It can be a good indicator of the feeling of the herd.
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Old 08-17-2013, 12:54 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
I guess I should buy a few ounces next week... probably I won't even wait until Monday, just that I'd have to scratch out some money from somewhere...

What's with the DCA?
If you keep worrying about how much you pay using RUBBER dollars, the only thing you will hear is the train leaving the station without you on it.

Just remember one thing, PMS NEVER EVER GO TO ZERO, and eventually fiat ALWAYS becomes WORTHLESS. So, which would you rather have? WORTHLESS PAPER? Or a hard asset that ALWAYS has value?
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Last edited by mmerlinn; 08-17-2013 at 01:10 AM.
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Old 08-17-2013, 01:29 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Unobtanium View Post:
Potemkin,
You really need to stop wringing your hands so much about buying silver at $19 vs $23. Consider both $19 and $23 a gift right now, whichever happens to be spot when you have money to buy. You cannot go wrong with either one.

There is absolutely no reason to be sick with $23 silver prices. Don't wait for it to drop; you might be looking at $30-$40 if you wait too long. Just buy when you have cash, especially if the prices are anywhere in the twenties. Then after you buy, sleep well and don't worry.
The problem is I live in Europe and premiums here are high.
I can only buy silver at 29-30 $ per ounce!

VAT, high premiums and "fees" are added.

Right now it costs 30 $. I can only buy silver at this high price. Europe is the worst place for silver.

At 18-19-20 it cost 25 $.
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Old 08-17-2013, 07:01 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
The problem is I live in Europe and premiums here are high.
I can only buy silver at 29-30 $ per ounce!

VAT, high premiums and "fees" are added.

Right now it costs 30 $. I can only buy silver at this high price. Europe is the worst place for silver.

At 18-19-20 it cost 25 $.
Obv. get some phyzz, but if you trust them, something like GoldMoney is also an option, I don't think they have a minimum investment. You don't pay the tax unless you take delivery.
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Old 08-17-2013, 10:39 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
The problem is I live in Europe and premiums here are high.
I can only buy silver at 29-30 $ per ounce!

VAT, high premiums and "fees" are added.

Right now it costs 30 $. I can only buy silver at this high price. Europe is the worst place for silver.

At 18-19-20 it cost 25 $.
Still doesn't change anything. When you have funds, purchase PMs, especially when it is in a major dip like has been. If you wait, you might catch a lower price, but prices may also continue to go up. BTFD and DCA.

In other words you are trying to time the localized market bottoms. Very few people successfully do that. Anywhere near generalized bottom is a great place to be. And that is where we are now. Nike: Just Do It.

Last edited by Unobtanium; 08-17-2013 at 05:47 PM.
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Old 08-17-2013, 05:38 PM   #14
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...

My take is that they will ALL go up. But, there seems to be a real difference in the "Relative Value" of each precious metal. My guess is that gold wins, read why!

http://tinyurl.com/mo4bswf
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Old 08-17-2013, 06:13 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
...

My take is that they will ALL go up. But, there seems to be a real difference in the "Relative Value" of each precious metal. My guess is that gold wins, read why!

http://tinyurl.com/mo4bswf
here's some relative value for you:

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Old 08-18-2013, 12:56 PM   #16
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Have not looked at a silver chart in weeks until just now. What do I see?

Silver rocketing back up to $26, stalling there, then crashing back down to somewhere in the low 20s. I see NOTHING that will push it beyond the $26 range in the near future, but I do see $26 by the end of August before a crash into October. Beyond October it is anyone's GUESS where silver will go.

Wish I had the means, I would short silver at $26 either outright or via calls/puts with the plan on covering the shorts 8 weeks later.
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Old 08-19-2013, 04:50 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by mmerlinn View Post:
Have not looked at a silver chart in weeks until just now. What do I see?

Silver rocketing back up to $26, stalling there, then crashing back down to somewhere in the low 20s. I see NOTHING that will push it beyond the $26 range in the near future, but I do see $26 by the end of August before a crash into October. Beyond October it is anyone's GUESS where silver will go.

Wish I had the means, I would short silver at $26 either outright or via calls/puts with the plan on covering the shorts 8 weeks later.
Why will it crash in October?
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Old 08-19-2013, 06:33 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
The problem is I live in Europe and premiums here are high.
I can only buy silver at 29-30 $ per ounce!

VAT, high premiums and "fees" are added.

Right now it costs 30 $. I can only buy silver at this high price. Europe is the worst place for silver.

At 18-19-20 it cost 25 $.
Hi Potemkin,

I'm also in Europe (well, Britain...) and have been lusting after some silver. I've come to a couple of conculsions:

1) You pay the fees when you buy, but when it comes to selling if you can arrange a private sale you may be able to sell at a price that recoups these fees at that point. Ie. if a coin shop sells 1kg silver bars for 1,500E including fees there is no reason your private sale can't command a similar pirce - probably a bit less as you can't charge a trust premium - but no reason you have to settle for 30% less than they charge unless you sell back to a shop.

2) An organisation like bullion vault does not involve any tax liability, but costs are high unless you have, say 30,000E to invest.
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Old 08-19-2013, 07:00 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by RealFinney View Post:
2) An organisation like bullion vault does not involve any tax liability, but costs are high unless you have, say 30,000E to invest.
....eeek? how is anything in that sentence true? First, of course there's tax liability if you make any money trading PMs using BulionVault and like, secondly, the costs of buying/owning PMs using Bullion Vault and like, are much LOWER than if you opt for physical delivery (show me the coin shop where I can buy physical @ around spot, kindly, oh, and yes, from behind my computer screen to boot...), lastly, there's no requirement at all as for the size of transactions/holdings (I think the lowest you can buy/hold using Bullion Vault, is 1 gram - hardly a €30,000 barrier to entry).
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Old 08-19-2013, 10:06 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by mike View Post:
Why will it crash in October?
October is seasonally weak for gold so everyone is calling for a correction then. It's practically consensus every year that October is going to see a crash. Buying/selling purely based on seasonality is a dangerous game and I wouldn't recommend doing it.

My advise is this...

If you are a trader, trade. If you are an investor, invest.

I don't think everyone needs to be trying to time this market. Most people don't have the skills necessary to do it and net/net they lose money and miss opportunities. People frequently trade based on emotion and recent memory. You get trained to doubt rallies and fear pullbacks. That's how bull markets are made and why so few people can actually ride them out. But what do I know, I've only been riding this one since 2004.

We now have 6 days over the upper bollinger band on silver so yeah.. we need a pause with some sideways to down. We don't need a smashing or "correction". In fact, I think that purchases made in the next correction might be from higher prices than where we currently trade. If I think we are going to see substantial weakness, I'll say so just as I have in the past.
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