Btmfd!

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Volatility costs on options are exploding, ie it is much more expensive to go long or short compared to Friday and even a few hours ago.
 
swissaustrian said:
Volatility costs on options are exploding, ie it is much more expensive to go long or short compared to Friday and even a few hours ago.
Click to expand...

Could you explain that for a paper trading n00b like me? I take it you are not referring to CME margin costs? Or am I confusing options and futures (again)?
 
Yes, I'm talking about the price of an option, not of a futures contract. Part of the price of an option are the expectations of the seller about future volatility. If prices fluctuate wildly like right now, the sellers tend to ask for a higher price, because they have to bear the risk of volatility. Volatility has caused these prices to go much higher.
 
Now that the uptrend has been broken, we'll see if the previous bottoms at 1385/23 hold.
 
The UKs biggest online bullion site, as I mentioned had to change their next day delivery policy to 3 days for the first time, then they stated they would not take orders till Mon morning. They are taking orders, but they've now given themself a week...

Due to unprecedented demand we are not able to offer next working day delivery. Orders will be dispatched as soon as possible in the order that funds are received. We expect to dispatch most orders within 1 week.
Click to expand...
 
Shipping delays (Goldmart, holla!) and rising premiums. Smells like 2008.
 
...honestly - if I was a bullion seller, and have to sell my stock that I've bought at YESTERDAY's spot, at TODAY's spot + my premium, I would be rising my premiums, too - simply to not get too much into red, or perhaps turn some marginal profits (I would be going out of business in one quick hurry had I done otherwise).

IMHO, if the price stabilizes at the new lower levels, we would also see the premiums going down, while bullion sellers restock their inventories at new, lower prices - all other things being equal ;).

...which they aren't, because we will see how the physical demand is shaping at new, lower prices :)
 
Well, gold makes new intraday lows. 1350 now in sight. Many have been calling for the low in that area.
 
...

eBay/24hgold.com widget shows $1702 (sell price), a 24% premium vs. spot. That is the highest I have ever seen. The widget is at the bottom of:

24hgold.com.com

***

I would be curious to get comments by anyone buying actual physical gold today (or very soon).

1) Is gold available?

2) How high are the premiums?
 
Ok fellas.. you know i've be absent for a long time and very quiet.. I haven't been singing the praises of short term action. I haven't been saying to load up.. I haven't been saying "to the moon".

Buy the fucking dip.

For silver... wait for the retest next month. probably in the 22 range..

I think that this friday's cot report will definitely show the commercials sub 100k and potentially in the 60k net short zone.
 
I just read a post on ZH using the exact same analogy I was thinking of

This is the part of the tsunami where the sea goes out before the wave hits.
Click to expand...

I won't even order online with a 1 week delay, but will head to my LCS tomorrow to see if I can pick up some Phyz.
 
2-3 pm ET might be a dangerous timeframe. That's usually when margin calls are made. Maybe we'll even see an effect on the general stock market.
 
First round of margin calls over without major technical damage. Very solid buying at 1350.
Stocks dropped, too. So it was likely margin calls.
 
pfff. We were an inch away from breaking 1350, but it held. The first time during the last few days that a major support level was defended like this.
There's extreme short term volatility in gold right now.
 
I'll say two things about attempting to buy bottoms.

1) For short term, I prefer placing a small feeler position, then once pivot points are crossed for bullish sentiment- add into said positions. Today I bought SLV at 22.40, which I may or may not regret. I think it's a good buy because the RSI is slammed and people are panicing like blood is in the streets.

2) For long term, buying in blocks, small batches is ideal. Breaking it up into 4-5 segments through the course of the slope down is good because as we learned today, these PTB will keep you guessing. I bought a small batch of physical today as well. NOT as much as I did for the short term paper trade though. Just a portion. That way I can and do plan to buy more should it fall to 21, 20, 19, what have you.

All in my opinion and GLTYA.
 
mike said:
Will somebody please just tell me what to do? I'm paralyzed with indecisiveness.
Click to expand...

You can do nothing, but then there is no chance of gaining anything.

You can buy all in, but then there is a chance of losing.

I suggest that you buy a little on every dip, for example, spend the same dollars on every buy. When prices are low, you get more metal. When prices are high, you get less metal. And that is assuming that you believe in buying PMs and have no qualms about seeing the "value" of them drop when measured with rubber dollars.

If you can't withstand a drop, emotionally, physically, or financially, you do not belong in the PM market.
 
...while not being a trader myself, common sense is my thing, I daresay - bought some on Fri, because I thought I am getting a very good deal, now I just wait, because it looks like I will get even better deal down the line. What I already got, ain't going nowhere anytime soon, but soon, I believe I will be getting more.

Panic/rush is not a good advisor!
 
I too bought a little bit on Friday. I'm chagrined that I didn't wait because spot has dropped, but heartened by the idea that if I had waited, I might not have been able to buy (from my LCS at least) at all. Bird in the hand...
 
I don't even worry too much about spot getting lower (within some given space of course), if the premiums are going up all the same. The craziest example was earlier in the thread, when my LCS price on Krugs went UP €200+, in a matter of MINUTES, while spot was still diving. :flail:

...got 'em cheaper, that it was possible over last few months? Good. Will it go even lower next (all in, icluding premiums, S&H)? Even better.
 
Last edited:
bushi said:
...while not being a trader myself, common sense is my thing, I daresay - bought some on Fri, because I thought I am getting a very good deal, now I just wait, because it looks like I will get even better deal down the line. What I already got, ain't going nowhere anytime soon, but soon, I believe I will be getting more.

Panic/rush is not a good advisor!
Click to expand...

My sentiments exactly. Better deals ALWAYS come along, but since you cannot predict them, it is foolish to wait for the BEST deal, which you will probably miss because you think that you can do even better.
 
PMBug said:
I too bought a little bit on Friday. I'm chagrined that I didn't wait because spot has dropped, but heartened by the idea that if I had waited, I might not have been able to buy (from my LCS at least) at all. Bird in the hand...
Click to expand...
That's a good point. I pulled the trigger last night and was a little miffed to see what happened during the few hours that I actaully slept. But, they weren't sold out and with the floating premiums I could have spent 7% less fiat. Oh well, in the long run it won't matter because prices won't be starting with the numbers "1" or "2".


And it's not getting any lighter.
:mrt:
 
mike said:
I waited too long. My dealer is out of the PMs I want :(

You snooze, you lose!
Click to expand...

...get Austrian Philharmonics instead ;), also according to the latest update they are accepting orders on ASEs. Metal is metal is metal, and when baloon goes up, they will kiss your feet and buy ANYTHING recognizable, for whatever the price became.

my $0.02
 
You guys aren't kidding. Last weekend on Saturday- neither (of 3)dealers I go to had anything. One guy said he sold 4,000 ounces in days. I could only get 40 oz and that was for $2 over spot. The other place was charging $4.00 over spot.

Last night I bought a small bundle of bars from Gainesville coins for I think $24.5 per oz AND shipped. Very good deal in my opinion.

Oddly, online has been cheaper for me then the dealer.. hm.. backwardation in place?:popcorn:
 
Apmex is one of the largest US dealers (and an authorized dealer for the US Mint so they get their inventory of ASEs direct and likely with preference). They are essentially sold out of 100ozt silver bars, ASEs, etc. (current listings indicate future availability dates). Their premiums have also been rising since Friday.
 
No drop this time. We're touching 1400 on gold instead. Who would have thought that 10 hours ago at 1320 and 22...
 
It would be really encouraging to see a close above 1400 and 24. But it's still a long day.
Re Rickards: Jim Sinclair said he would expect the FED to support gold in the future. The deflation scare could be the trigger for that.
 
swissaustrian said:
No drop this time. We're touching 1400 on gold instead. Who would have thought that 10 hours ago at 1320 and 22...
Click to expand...

Long tailed reversal candles mark lows.

We need to retake 1425 for this reversal today to be meaningful. RIght now, it's just a bounce.
 
Yes. It's definitely to early to call a reversal.
I don't expect this rally from the bottom to continue for days anyway. I'd actually not be surprised to see another dip into the 1350/23 area this week. Usually these raids take months to fully recover.
 
Nice short covering into the COMEX close. But still ten minutes to go to bang the close for the usual suspects.
 
Gold closes the COMEX session a few cents lower than the opening quote at 8 am ET. Somebody is having a great time playing with prices.
 
Well guys, all I can say is that I'm enjoying catching up on the commentary. Keep up the good work and dissemination of what is going on.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom