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Old 10-14-2013, 06:47 PM   #1
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Is it time to buy Gold now?

Gold has now retraced to the blindside forming an hourglass shaped backwardation that is sometimes referred to as a Marilyn Monroe by laymen who get excited when they see it. Many technical analysts believe that whenever Gold hits a price in the $1260-$1270 range that if you buy it you won't be disappointed, unless it goes down more, in which case you should sell it. That is when the range becomes an oven. Forwardbackwardation usually follows and gold could then fall to new lows until a floor forms and the process reverts into a death cross. Once reversion to mean happens the floor becomes a ceiling and the cross is easier to bear. This reversion to mean is sometimes called a mean reversion because it has a bad attitude. I give this advice with a warning that I am often wrong and so you should not invest any money that you would not be willing to spend on lottery tickets or dating. For me I don't do either so I am considering buying some, except for the price. So the answer is maybe.
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Old 10-14-2013, 08:24 PM   #2
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After the sudden plunge gold traders cry conspiracy:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101110403
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Old 10-15-2013, 08:46 AM   #3
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I'm quite sure that the Chinese are very happy that physical is still on sale. I expect to see inventories in the GLD/COMEX free falling again.
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Old 10-15-2013, 09:22 AM   #4
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"China Wants to de-Americanize the World" (and the effect on Gold)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi...rld-2013-10-14
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Old 10-15-2013, 11:22 PM   #5
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OK, today we saw Gold move into what is commonly know as "the dumbbell" pattern which usually signals that strength is building or else this is a bad time to buy.
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Old 10-16-2013, 07:34 AM   #6
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At this juncture, gold is in the hands of the 'Puppet-master'. The PTB will do as they will to keep gold wherever it is that they wish it to be until they have achieved their ends. The way I see it, we won't see a major up-swing in PM's until we have a hard resolution to the bickering in congress and a friggin budget.
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Old 10-16-2013, 10:25 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
At this juncture, gold is in the hands of the 'Puppet-master'. The PTB will do as they will to keep gold wherever it is that they wish it to be until they have achieved their ends. The way I see it, we won't see a major up-swing in PM's until we have a hard resolution to the bickering in congress and a friggin budget.
The "ALL CLEAR" siren is now blaring from Washington. Everyone can go back to work and resume normal life. For a couple of months.

This completely unexpected turn of events is putting selling pressure on Gold. This occurs whenever Congress agrees to keep spending money they don't have and the Republicans go along. Analysts call this type of move a "depressurization" and it can lead to dizziness and loss of consciousness, but you have to have a conscience in order to lose it, so Congress will not feel any effect. The rest of us may need medication however to make it through the rest of the year.

Since this thread is trying to answer the question "is now a good time to buy gold", I am moving my recommendation from "Maybe" to "January".
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:21 PM   #8
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I do not have a doubt in my mind that the debt ceiling will be raised again in february. If I understand you correctly, the price of gold in january might be even lower than the current price due to the "debt ceiling crisis" that once again will occur when we approach february? That will mark the time for buying gold, and once again when an agreement is made the prices will rise again? Is that your prediction and if not, please correct me if I´m wrong.
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:38 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by kashe View Post:
I do not have a doubt in my mind that the debt ceiling will be raised again in february. If I understand you correctly, the price of gold in january might be even lower than the current price due to the "debt ceiling crisis" that once again will occur when we approach february? That will mark the time for buying gold, and once again when an agreement is made the prices will rise again? Is that your prediction and if not, please correct me if I´m wrong.
Kashe I am going to guess [since I'm not a professional] and say that when the congressional shenanigans are over we'll see higher prices. Then, when they revisit the debt ceiling and budget crap again, we'll get smashed again.

That is of course contingent upon no other black swans landing on the bow of our sinking ship.
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:56 PM   #10
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Ok but that seems to go against most of what I´ve read. I mean, during bad times PM prices go up, right? How come the prices go down during this kind of "bad times"? Should not PM prices go up when USA is hours away from defaulting? I know that borrowing money (printing) is good for PM's but isn´t also US defaulting good for PMs?

edit: Hello everyone btw, I´ve been sneaking around for a while and finally decided to join the discussions!
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:17 PM   #11
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My advice- buy physical gold and silver. Buy what you can afford to forget you own.

Thus far- I have not have to break into my stack to pay bills. I have tho bounce check fees when paypal went over on ebay.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:38 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by kashe View Post:
... I mean, during bad times PM prices go up, right? ...
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Some settling of contents may occur.

Originally Posted by kashe View Post:
... edit: Hello everyone btw, I´ve been sneaking around for a while and finally decided to join the discussions!
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:56 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by kashe View Post:
Ok but that seems to go against most of what I´ve read. I mean, during bad times PM prices go up, right? How come the prices go down during this kind of "bad times"? Should not PM prices go up when USA is hours away from defaulting? I know that borrowing money (printing) is good for PM's but isn´t also US defaulting good for PMs?

edit: Hello everyone btw, I´ve been sneaking around for a while and finally decided to join the discussions!
Welcome to the discussion! I'm glad you posted because I can't find anything wrong with your analysis and that is really helpful. It seems like bad news for the US should always be good news for Gold. The only wild card is that goofy and playful Comex where paper gold is traded without necessarily any real gold behind it. This seems to cause the market to move in mysterious and really exciting ways when somebody (and you know who you are) decides to dump a few million ounces of gold on the market for no particular reason other than it's fun to see people jump out of windows. I am trying to add this "random" element to my formula so that I can predict when this might happen next and give better advice on whether or not now is a good time to buy gold, or if we should wait for January.

Ok, I am going to go out on a limb right now based on seeing the price of Gold jump up after a deal was reached in Congress and say you should have bought gold yesterday. It appears that even the good news of the US not defaulting today, is actually still bad news because nothing was fixed, so that's good news for gold which means it might be bad news or good news in January.

Last edited by Aubuy; 10-17-2013 at 08:43 AM. Reason: I feel lucky
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Old 10-17-2013, 11:30 AM   #14
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Im prepared to allow for the explanation of market manipulation by those who stand to gain

Its not just the Fed though, its also those who now hold those short positions that the bullion banks have offloaded.

It would seem like a reasonable explanation that some hedgies would be happy to play this game and with no threat of 'oversight' they are free to try.

Yeah we all hoped that with the bullion banks being long, we would be lifted by them looking to benefit from their new position.

Perhaps they have to learn some new ways of playing, having shown everyone how to push prices down .......
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Old 10-18-2013, 10:38 AM   #15
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I think something historical just happened. The debt limit was increased. This may seem routine, but that was then, and this is now. The rest of the world is starting to sense real weakness. The media has stopped talking about Obama's "red line" that wasn't really a red line in Syria, but it hasn't been forgotten. That was then followed by the government shutdown and debt ceiling increase game (with a clear lack of leadership or compromise), and so we got absolutely no resolution to the underlying problems. We are showing real weakness to the world, and that translates to opportunity, for somebody else.

There are powerful forces getting aligned with each other in an attempt to find a new reserve currency to protect themselves from our financial irresponsibility. This is where gold might have a small supporting role. However, I believe it will only be a minor piece because I don't believe that most countries really want to tie themselves to a gold standard. For one thing you would be ceding power to countries that have gold reserves, as well as to the mining companies that know how to get it out of the ground, so it's not like there is a real good alternative to the US dollar (yet).

But the dollar is getting into deep water. Nobody can predict the future but it seems reasonable to me that having a small life boat made out of something other than US dollars, might be worth considering. Maybe made with at least a small gold anchor so you can hold your place when the waves come rolling in.

Last edited by Aubuy; 10-18-2013 at 07:39 PM. Reason: methaphor improvement
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:58 AM   #16
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OK, I've received a great deal of feedback on whether or not raising the debt ceiling this time around was historic or not. The consensus seems to be that this was not an historic event, and that nothing really new has happened. So I withdraw my earlier post about redlines, and weakness, and forces being aligned to create a new reserve currency because frankly upon reflection, the dollar is completely safe and nobody can touch it. Just watch this and you will feel better too if you were worried.

Last edited by Aubuy; 10-19-2013 at 11:33 AM. Reason: Going bananas
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Old 10-20-2013, 04:13 AM   #17
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Some are saying gold could drop to the 1,000-1,200 $ interval. I'm eyeing that range to buy.
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Old 10-21-2013, 09:30 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Potemkin View Post:
Some are saying gold could drop to the 1,000-1,200 $ interval. I'm eyeing that range to buy.
If gold goes to that level it is called a "goldfinger" and it's important to note which finger is being indicated so you will know if it is going to continue down or go "shooting" back up. Here is a brief video showing what can happen:
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Old 10-22-2013, 05:21 AM   #19
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Trader Dans friday wrap is well worth reading -

http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot...l#comment-form


Its a useful look at why gold is going nowhere ........
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Old 10-22-2013, 07:37 AM   #20
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NFP misses and metals jump (a bit).
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