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Old 03-06-2012, 08:29 AM   #1
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Getting hammered again

Looks like the Brotherhood of Darkness needs silver to crash. They have forced a huge drop in a very few minutes this morning. At some point, some of tjhis unbacked paper has to be honored. I wonder it "they" will ever allow that to happen?
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Old 03-06-2012, 08:36 AM   #2
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And here I thought we wouldn't see gold going towards 1650 again, just means more stacking opportunities.
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Old 03-06-2012, 08:37 AM   #3
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Gold too, my dumb system has had me out of all but my core for awhile now, but I recently about doubled what I'm calling core - and that new part is badly red. Some probably the dollar, but this is too big for it to just be that.
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Old 03-06-2012, 08:45 AM   #4
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Risk off trading right now:
  • China released lowered growth expectations
  • Iran war concerns
  • Euro mess unresolved and looking like it will unravel
At least, that's the theory...
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:16 AM   #5
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Time to pick up some miners
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:38 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
Time to pick up some miners
I covered over 1/2 my position when the hui was down 3.25%. I think we have 1 more morning down and hope for a reversal from there.
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:47 AM   #7
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If anyone is focused on the daily COMEX price as to their views on PM's they don't understand the real issue.
Keep your eyes on the future where PM's are real money.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:06 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Jetstream View Post:
If anyone is focused on the daily COMEX price as to their views on PM's they don't understand the real issue.
Keep your eyes on the future where PM's are real money.
Well.. the problem is that some of us are professional traders and we have to do some hedging from time to time. It allows us to keep our positions on (so we aren't being forced to liquidate) and feel more comfortable buying the dips. A couple weeks ago everyone was foaming at the mouth for silver+gold and sentiment was getting way too bullish. Now, sentiment is much less overzealous so in a couple weeks we should be higher but we need to shake the tree some more IMHO. It might take a week or so of going nowhere or stabilizing. Worst case, we violate some levels and everyone gets depressed again. After 2.5 months higher, getting 2-4 weeks down should be welcomed. Especially if you are trying to build positions.

Another issue that you have to understand is that buying the companies is not the same as buying gold. Eventually, they will be treated better than they have been over the past year (and 08). The fact that so many people were recklessly unprofessional (back in 08) in this space caused a huge problem for the industry. It scared capital away and most companies still haven't recovered. Miners weren't given bailouts so all the work that has been done has been hard and real. Valuations are simply meaningless at this point. All that matters is sentiment.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:21 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by dereksatkinson View Post:
Well.. the problem is that some of us are professional traders and we have to do some hedging from time to time. It allows us to keep our positions on (so we aren't being forced to liquidate) and feel more comfortable buying the dips. A couple weeks ago everyone was foaming at the mouth for silver+gold and sentiment was getting way too bullish. Now, sentiment is much less overzealous so in a couple weeks we should be higher but we need to shake the tree some more IMHO. It might take a week or so of going nowhere or stabilizing. Worst case, we violate some levels and everyone gets depressed again. After 2.5 months higher, getting 2-4 weeks down should be welcomed. Especially if you are trying to build positions.

Another issue that you have to understand is that buying the companies is not the same as buying gold. Eventually, they will be treated better than they have been over the past year (and 08). The fact that so many people were recklessly unprofessional (back in 08) in this space caused a huge problem for the industry. It scared capital away and most companies still haven't recovered. Miners weren't given bailouts so all the work that has been done has been hard and real. Valuations are simply meaningless at this point. All that matters is sentiment.
Fully understand. I should have been a bit clearer in my comment which was directed wholly at those who are amassing physical. The daily ups and downs should neither get them depressed nor ecstatic. They need a longer-term approach.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:21 AM   #10
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In some worlds, including mostly mine, valuation (a purely human construct) == sentiment (another purely human construct).

Standing outside the emotion and looking in rationally is the way to trade, you betcha.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:48 AM   #11
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With Euros being added, and Japan still trying to force the Yen down, the Dollar still needs to be valued against recent LTRO deposits that are still being added to the ECB, is how I'm reading this. Feel free to fire back on this. I"m interested in more dynamics than currencies, even though I feel they are the largest driver, aside of take downs, profits, shorts, and stops...
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Old 03-06-2012, 04:46 PM   #12
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^ That's a rational approach. Markets aren't always rational.
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Old 03-06-2012, 07:32 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by KMS View Post:
With Euros being added, and Japan still trying to force the Yen down, the Dollar still needs to be valued against recent LTRO deposits that are still being added to the ECB, is how I'm reading this. Feel free to fire back on this. I"m interested in more dynamics than currencies, even though I feel they are the largest driver, aside of take downs, profits, shorts, and stops...

At the same time, how much of the LTRO was done with USD? How much was really coming from the fed? There is more to this story than the cover we are seeing.

I just think we are having a correction.
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Old 03-07-2012, 02:53 AM   #14
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Honestly, I thought LTRO was strictly Euro zone banks being handed Euros?

And here, Tyler is pointing out the new gap between between the Euro and the Dollar, and that dollars need to be added to equalize the currency base, (right?)

So, yeah. This is devaluation of the euro and the dollar has gone up. People are selling into dollars.

Tyler says:
Quote :
Because as a reminder, the key driving relationship for relative risk performance of 2012 as we forecast back in December is the correlation of the Fed and the ECB's balance sheets, and the EURUSD, respectively, because while we may pretend that there is still alpha in this joke of a market, the truth is that in this new normal only beta matters (the more lever the better), and the only beta that matters is that generated by relative USD strength/weakness.
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Old 03-07-2012, 07:55 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by KMS View Post:
Honestly, I thought LTRO was strictly Euro zone banks being handed Euros?
That's based on information was have today. Remember those swap agreements?

The issue is that the ecb is currently allow to print unlimited dollars and lend them out. Dollars, not euros. We have no idea how much of the LTRO was done in USD and how much was done in EURO. Everyone is currently assuming 100% Euro but when you look at the USD reaction to the LTRO, it wasn't dollar positive.
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Old 03-07-2012, 09:06 AM   #16
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I think this pullback is over for now. 32 held quite well and will prove to be the line in the sand against short sellers. If we close above 33 for the rest of the week, the floor may even be raised to that point. Right now, I would bet that the shorts are beginning to quietly cover some of that unbacked paper they threw in the pit over the last few sessions.
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Old 03-07-2012, 09:50 AM   #17
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Why is the European Central Bank allowed to print our currency?
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Old 03-07-2012, 01:48 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by KMS View Post:
Why is the European Central Bank allowed to print our currency?

its everybodys currency now ........

just dressed up as euro

what better way to take control of all fiats / CB's ?
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Old 03-09-2012, 09:51 AM   #19
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The swap arrangements back in November pretty much insured that they will have an unlimited amount of dollars printed by central banks into 2013. Not sure what the cut off date is "supposed to be". Though honestly, I don't think it will stop till the dollar has another substantial drop.
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