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Old 05-15-2013, 10:34 AM   #1
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Ho hum....

New day......new slam.
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Old 05-15-2013, 10:38 AM   #2
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The slams will continue until supply increases.
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Old 05-15-2013, 01:24 PM   #3
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but but

doesnt price fall create demand ............ ?

I have to say it does somewhat concern me that it apparently has to go to zero before it gets free

hopefully it will all happen while I am asleep.
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Old 05-15-2013, 01:25 PM   #4
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unfortunately.. I think it's going to be a long road back to new highs...
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Old 05-15-2013, 01:31 PM   #5
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All it takes another summer black swan event and all bets will be off. Pick your favorite:
Bird Flu pandemic from China, unexpected financial collapse, regional war, Cubs win the World Series...
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Old 05-15-2013, 01:45 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by DSAbug View Post:
unfortunately.. I think it's going to be a long road back to new highs...
Au needs to gain 35% to match it's high.(Approx)
Ag needs 110%.(Approx)



GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS!!!
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Old 05-17-2013, 07:18 AM   #7
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Nineteen dollars anyone? It's been a long time since we've been down in the basement, but here we sit. time to go all in boyz.
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Old 05-18-2013, 12:49 AM   #8
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We should see a bounce off silver $22 and gold $1330 in the next two weeks, then stalls near 24.50 and 1480. With no significant news, then dump back to today's levels. After that if silver stalls around 23 and gold stalls around 1400, look for a significant break below today's levels.

Basically for the next several weeks, look for consolidation between 22.00/24.50 and 1320/1480 (Yes, booooooring, but good for stackers as the public gets used to new, lower prices). After that we will either have another dump, or the long-awaited turnaround will begin. Pick your poison.

My guess? Another dump before the turnaround, but not for weeks, maybe months.
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Old 05-18-2013, 04:28 AM   #9
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mmerlin,

what do you base your predictions on ?

If its TA, is it reliable in a managed market ?

I guess theres no reason why the controllers cant 'paint the tape' to create the appearance of human behaviour but if the real battle is paper vs metal, does TA still work ?
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Old 05-18-2013, 09:23 AM   #10
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To much "idiot" news IMHO.

Housing is turning around though starts are down.

Jobless claims have decreased even though true unemployment looms in many states.

Interest rates are still remarkably low demonstrating NO inflation even though it is artificial because the FED is the only one buying securities.

Soon more and more people will get curious about the man behind the curtain.

Till then we are in the summer stacking season.

19? Well if anyone sees it then you really are not going to be able to buy it!

Buy it now while supplies last!

-Q
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Old 05-18-2013, 07:23 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
mmerlin,

what do you base your predictions on ?

If its TA, is it reliable in a managed market ?

I guess theres no reason why the controllers cant 'paint the tape' to create the appearance of human behaviour but if the real battle is paper vs metal, does TA still work ?
I base my predictions on 40 years of earning my living in the rough and tumble scrap markets. Basically, I eat or starve by how I view the markets, so even though I am not correct all of the time, my predictions are spot on enough to put food on the table in any kind of market, whether sky-rocketing, crashing, or just going boringly sideways.

Crashing markets are the best for me. I make more money when markets are wildly crashing than when they are going up. Basically, the crashing markets bankrupt or scare out the competitors who generally never come back, leaving me with bigger slices of the pie. Rising markets, especially rocketing ones, bring a new crop of competitors out of the woodwork who see the easy money, but have not been baptized in a crashing inferno, and who eventually lose their shirts when the inferno happens.

To put it simply, I am a stacker when everyone else is abandoning my markets. I stack new suppliers and regain old suppliers, many of which were burnt by my competitors during the slide in prices. Those suppliers generally are very loyal and ignore all competing offers in the next runup thereby giving me a stable supplier base with wide margins as prices go up. Over time during the runup the supplier base shrinks as suppliers sell out, die, or otherwise leave the business. By the time the next top comes, my supplier base is small as potential new suppliers are enticed by prices offered by my new competitors, prices which I refuse to match because it is pointless to get into a bidding war with competitors that have no clue how to survive the ups and downs of the markets.

The whole cycle takes about 10 years from bottom to top to bottom again. With metals prices crashing, I have been stacking new suppliers and regaining suppliers that could not live with my prices during the last five years. When this crash is all over and done with, I should have a decent supplier base for the next five years or so, until the next batch of not-yet-dry-behind-the-ears competitors arrives.

Even though I am not stacking physical metals, I am still a stacker when prices are falling. I stack new suppliers which supply me the metals I need to put food on the table.

After 40 years of surviving in the metals markets, one gets a "feel" for prices and price actions. It really does not matter if the markets are "controlled" or not as no one, not even the government, can repeal the laws of economics. All they can do is to distort the markets, making for higher highs and lower lows and increasing the velocity of those changes. If the government would get out of the economic arena, we would still have ups and downs in the markets, but market forces would force those ups and downs to be much shorter and less wild in their gyrations.
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Old 05-19-2013, 05:31 AM   #12
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Thank you for sharing that mmerlin.

I now understand a bit better why you often seem negative on the currect pm prices.
And I wish I had had access to solid opinion like yours when everything seemed to be falling apart in 08 and I was pretty much panicked by internet commentary into going all in.

When you say scrap metal , do you mean p.m's or do you trade all metals ?

Do you see any relevance between what happens in the paper gold markets and world demand for actual metal ?
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Old 05-19-2013, 09:00 AM   #13
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Just found out a friend is opening a coin shop. Finally I can not only deal with someone I trust, but support him in his new venture. And with these prices, its a winning combination.
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Old 05-19-2013, 09:42 AM   #14
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Hey Smokey!

Good luck with your friend but I bet his/her inventory is going to be really hard to fill.



-Q
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Old 05-19-2013, 09:10 PM   #15
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...

@ smakey57

Yes, we wish your friend good luck with his coin shop! It is good to have an LCS nearby run by someone you can trust.

@ everyone!

As of 10:00 PM US ET, they are at it again, gold is down $9.00 and silver down 60 cents as well. "Paper metals" anyway...
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Old 05-21-2013, 09:13 PM   #16
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OK, so we're up a nickel, we'll see what happens in the middle of the night when no one is paying attention. The brotherhood of darkness is trying pretty hard to pound this bitch below 20.
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Old 05-22-2013, 06:14 AM   #17
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Looks like it's still trading around 22.60 this morning.
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Old 05-22-2013, 07:49 AM   #18
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It's the epic battle of long VS short.

Who will win?

Who will be the next world champion?
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