Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Silver Bug

Like Tree4Likes
  • 1 Post By Unobtanium
  • 1 Post By PMBug
  • 1 Post By mike
  • 1 Post By PMBug

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 02-24-2013, 11:59 AM   #1
Big-eyed bug
 
Unobtanium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 451
Liked: 344 times
Interview with Tom Cloud

http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-m...u-have-to-pay/

Quote :
The More Silver You Want, The More You Have To Pay
by John Rubino on February 19, 2013


In this week’s talk with National Numismatics’ Tom Cloud, we cover the debt ceiling negotiations, futures contract expirations and the activities of his biggest customers (they’re buying silver).

DollarCollapse: Hi Tom. It’s been an intense couple of weeks…

Tom Cloud: Yes, and it could get more intense. Short futures positions in silver are expiring and we’re waiting to see what JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs do. If they take more short positions, silver could pierce support at $29.50/oz and fall another 3%-4%.

DC: The current silver short position in already at historic highs, isn’t it?

TC: It is extremely short. We’ve always known there are far more futures contracts outstanding for silver than there is physical silver. The commitment of traders (COT) numbers are certainly important, but they’re harder to use as an indicator because there’s so much deception going on. In the physical market there’s a shortage for sure. It hasn’t been this out-of-balance since 2008.

Yesterday, for instance, I made my biggest-ever sale, 116,800 ounces in 100-ounce Comex silver bars. That’s 1,168 bars worth about $3.5 million. It took me 8 or 9 days going back and forth while the price was moving. For an order this size you first go to the big boys and see what they have and start down the supply chain.

DC: Really? For a $3.5 million dollar order you can’t just make a phone call? That’s a pretty small amount of money in today’s world.

TC: No, you can’t. They can find 5,000 or 10,000 ounces, but more than that is hard. And suppliers want a bigger premium because you’re taking their inventory. It used to be that the bigger the order the deeper the volume discount but with silver in backwardation [where the spot price is above the 1-month futures price] they want a higher premium for an order this size. So the more you want the more you have to pay.

Just to be clear, these are Comex bars from the five major refineries, not from secondary refineries. These bars can be used to settle futures contracts so in a Comex default their premiums will soar, and as a result people are very interested in them. Even the biggest refineries don’t have millions of dollars of inventory sitting around.

DC: Meanwhile, the little guy is quiet.

TC: Orders in the $600 to $10,000 range have been really slow. Small buyers don’t want to go in when the market’s down, they want to wait. But the big players are active. Besides the huge order, we’ve had other very nice-size orders in the past few days.

DC: The main macro news on the horizon seems to be the debt ceiling debate.

TC: Conservative republicans are demanding spending cuts and democrats want tax increases. It’ll be a war for a while, but there’s no doubt that they’ll raise the debt ceiling by another $2 trillion. A higher debt ceiling has historically been great for gold, so the question is whether the reaction will be like 2011 when gold went up by $150 in three days. We know they’ll raise the debt ceiling, and we know that will be good for gold and silver. We just have to be patient.
PMBug likes this.
Unobtanium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2013, 06:41 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,017
Liked: 2444 times
I don't know who Tom Cloud is, but that's an interesting story.

Quote :
...
Just to be clear, these are Comex bars from the five major refineries, not from secondary refineries. These bars can be used to settle futures contracts so in a Comex default their premiums will soar, and as a result people are very interested in them. Even the biggest refineries don’t have millions of dollars of inventory sitting around.
...
According to Gainesville, the five major refineries (offering Comex rated good delivery bars in 100 ozt size) include Englehard and Johnson Matthey. Not sure who the other 3 are.

It's interesting to look back at Apmex's inventory of those two (three) brands with this news in mind. Apmex hasn't had any (primary sourced) Englehard bars since May 2012. They've carried a smattering of "secondary market" inventory since then, but never more than 85 bars at a time (median 17 bars; average 25 bars since April 2012 when they started carrying them).

They have maintained an inventory of primary sourced JM bars, but their inventory today is less than 1/3 of what it was one year ago.

Tulving is currently sold out of both Englehard and JM 100ozt silver bars.
Unobtanium likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2013, 08:13 PM   #3
Big-eyed bug
 
Unobtanium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 451
Liked: 344 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
I don't know who Tom Cloud is, but that's an interesting story.



According to Gainesville, the five major refineries (offering Comex rated good delivery bars in 100 ozt size) include Englehard and Johnson Matthey. Not sure who the other 3 are.

It's interesting to look back at Apmex's inventory of those two (three) brands with this news in mind. Apmex hasn't had any (primary sourced) Englehard bars since May 2012. They've carried a smattering of "secondary market" inventory since then, but never more than 85 bars at a time (median 17 bars; average 25 bars since April 2012 when they started carrying them).

They have maintained an inventory of primary sourced JM bars, but their inventory today is less than 1/3 of what it was one year ago.

Tulving is currently sold out of both Englehard and JM 100ozt silver bars.

It would be interesting to see your Inventory Watch data in graphical form since it was started back in Dec 2011, similar to the plots in posts #43, 44, 45:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/physi...52/index3.html

Have you been entering this info in a spreadsheet where it would be easy to plot?
Unobtanium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 03:44 AM   #4
Ground Beetle
 
mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Texan in Sweden
Posts: 549
Liked: 306 times
Regarding the "small guys being quiet" comment: I noticed traffic spiked on my site when PMs went down last week. I can only assume it correlates to more interest in buying. Could be wrong though.
PMBug likes this.
__________________
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

H. L. Mencken

comparegoldandsilverprices.com
mike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 05:51 AM   #5
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,017
Liked: 2444 times
Originally Posted by Unobtanium View Post:
It would be interesting to see your Inventory Watch data in graphical form since it was started back in Dec 2011, similar to the plots in posts #43, 44, 45:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/physi...52/index3.html

Have you been entering this info in a spreadsheet where it would be easy to plot?
Yes. I just attached the latest spreadsheet to the first post in the 2013 thread:

http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/physi...967/#post17489
ancona likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Kyle Bass interview on Bloomberg TV DCFusor Fiat Ponzi 11 11-19-2012 03:52 PM
Kyle Bass interview PMBug Fiat Ponzi 11 10-05-2012 08:57 AM
Steve Wozniak: Cloud Computing Will Cause 'Horrible Problems In The Next Five Years' swissaustrian STS 11 08-09-2012 10:00 AM
Must Read: James Rickards/C. Martenson interview. KMS Fiat Ponzi 0 02-18-2012 03:39 AM
Very intersting interview: Schiff/Rickards bushi Fiat Ponzi 9 02-09-2012 08:12 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:49 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.