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Old 12-20-2012, 10:17 AM   #1
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Itching to pull the trigger!

I've been watching this free fall and I'm back and forth on buying now. I wanted to see what everyone's opinion is on how long this is gonna last.
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Old 12-20-2012, 10:48 AM   #2
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I'm waiting until 28.75 or so.
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Old 12-20-2012, 10:51 AM   #3
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I have not bought any silver since the last time it was $29. I am starting to get tempted.
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:06 AM   #4
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Yeah I was thinking around low $29 myself. I normally buy from Scottsdale but I was thinking about going with AMPEX this time.
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:09 AM   #5
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7.9% in 3 days for silver.

RSIs are sub 30 for both metals.

Might not be "the lows" but if you are bullish on the metals, you probably should be buying small at the very least. This is likely the C extension of an ABC correction.
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Old 12-20-2012, 11:38 AM   #6
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No point in buying while crashing unless your model requires you to scale in, which may be a good idea.

Lows should come in a week or so as everyone in the markets seems to be unwinding in anticipation of all of the changes coming the first of the year. My guess is any time between Christmas and New Years will be the low with a base forming for a broad upswing next year.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:05 PM   #7
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It seems to be a pretty interesting roller coaster so far. I'm gonna ride it out for a few days and see what I can stack along the way.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:08 PM   #8
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agree mmerlin, by the sheer size of what is happening, I'd better wait a little bit more to see what's cooking.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:15 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by mmerlinn View Post:
No point in buying while crashing unless your model requires you to scale in, which may be a good idea.

Lows should come in a week or so as everyone in the markets seems to be unwinding in anticipation of all of the changes coming the first of the year. My guess is any time between Christmas and New Years will be the low with a base forming for a broad upswing next year.
Drops this severe usually don't give you a week or more to make a purchase. At least not for silver.

Premiums have dropped and i'm going to be doing some buying today.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:54 PM   #10
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A wise trader once told me, one of the major skills is the ability to NOT trade when the setup isn't right. This isn't juicy yet. I'd at least wait for 26 or so.


Looking at this, the last time we had this steep a drop was May, and you had June, July, and most of August to buy before the runup returned. Maybe a year isn't long enough context, but the rule I use is obvious - breaks above the 50 sma that hold for a day - buy - with trailing stop. Else, stay away. Works for gold too. You're out about half the time (and can use that money trading elsewhere), and only in for the middle of the runup. It's the highest risk-adjusted reward I can find in this metal, or gold for that matter.

Curtis Faith, master trader of "turtles" fame, told me he had no trouble publishing rules like this (his are different) - because emotionally, you won't follow them and therefore won't break his system (in general when everyone is onto something, it stops working).
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Old 12-20-2012, 01:48 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by DSAbug View Post:
Drops this severe usually don't give you a week or more to make a purchase. At least not for silver.

Premiums have dropped and i'm going to be doing some buying today.
Where have the premiums dropped? From what I see, they've either stayed the same, or gone up.

Sad to see Goldmart's premium on Walking Liberties go from $0.79 to $1.09 to $1.29 to ???
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Old 12-20-2012, 02:09 PM   #12
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Suppose you were a retailer of PM's. You have to have some stock. You bought it before the drop unless you have a time machine. Are you going to reduce premiums to try and sell more now, low? Only if you're stupid and planning to self-destruct. Common sense. So you keep your premium high to not lose as much on every sale.
Would YOU sell today with low premiums over the paper price? I didn't think so.

After this kind of monkey-hammering, I fully expect a little bounce - it happened last time, the time before, and so forth. Don't get head-faked by those, follow the rule. The opportunity cost is less than the risks that it will get hammered again. Maybe not all the way to 26 (bordering on negative returns for digging it up), but...28 perhaps? Wait for a real rise that lasts a few days, you won't miss much.

Had you followed this rule, you'd have been long 3 times this year, the last time you'd not have made much money - or even lost a little depending on that all important number on your trailing stop. But you made tons the first two times...and missed all those breathtaking drops along the way, or most all of them.
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Old 12-20-2012, 02:32 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
Looking at this, the last time we had this steep a drop was May, and you had June, July, and most of August to buy before the runup returned.
The selloff in the summer was not the same as the selloff we are seeing today. We are selling off and making a higher low while putting in divergences all over the place. This is just a completely different chart pattern. This is much more similar to the sharp decline we had last winter when Silver went into backwardation. Oh wait.. we just went into backwardation today.

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Old 12-20-2012, 03:00 PM   #14
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How do you know we are making a higher low? I think you have to wait, you can only know things like that in hindsight, after the low is in and the next rise has become significant to call the thing before it "the" low. Yes, this is steeper than the drop in spring (May - summer begins June 21) but...nothing is ever exactly the same twice - we rhyme, not loop.

Even if this were the low...we're looking at this priced in something that is also losing value, so this low might look higher, but not actually be higher re purchasing power.

Of course, it's your money - do what you think best. As will I.
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Old 12-20-2012, 03:35 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
(...)The opportunity cost is less than the risks that it will get hammered again.

something like this was brewing for a while, it was either going straight up, or big offensive from The Brotherhood of Darkness ( thanks ancona) - surely, we got the later. Remember, they will go "all in", regardless the costs, to keep the tabs on PMs, otherwise the whole GLOBAL monetary system goes down the drain.

Thus, IMHO, some epic hammering is to be expected, and not just your typical whams we are already getting used to - do not expect they will let it just rise peacefully. They would rather try and destroy the metals paper market, than let it out of control - which BTW, shall we listen to the likes of Alasdair McLeod, might very well happen next year, given the size of shorts vs. physical availability

Icy roads ahead. Act wisely - my
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Last edited by bushi; 12-20-2012 at 03:37 PM.
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Old 12-20-2012, 07:13 PM   #16
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Thanks, ALL of you, for EVERY comment. Informative for me....
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Old 12-21-2012, 06:18 AM   #17
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We going lower today boys. ES plummeted and future flash crashed overnight (saw it happen actually), apparently the Boner's plan didn't get enough votes.

Sorry, meant Boehner. Ah, that's right. Hah.

All in my opinion GLTYA
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Old 12-21-2012, 07:18 AM   #18
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OK this is probably very naive for this site, but does anybody here BORROW money to buy PM's? I'm so itchy but its Christmas and we've got other stuff going on also...
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Old 12-21-2012, 07:30 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Jay View Post:
OK this is probably very naive for this site, but does anybody here BORROW money to buy PM's? I'm so itchy but its Christmas and we've got other stuff going on also...

Negative on my end.

I mean the main thing you'd want to ask is : Do I expect the percentage of Silver gains to outperform the percentage of interest for this loan- by the time this loan is paid off?

Hope that made sense.
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Old 12-21-2012, 07:38 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Jay View Post:
... does anybody here BORROW money to buy PM's? ...
I do not.
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