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Old 11-11-2011, 08:21 AM   #1
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Silver "death cross"

Quote :
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Last week, silver's 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 200-DMA. Technical analysts refer to this action as a "death cross," and it is considered a bearish development. This is textbook technical analysis 101. Everybody who pays attention to charts knows this is a bad sign.

But ever since the death cross occurred, I haven't heard anyone talk about it. Not a single soul.

To be completely honest, I'm not a big fan of following the 50- and 200-DMAs. They're just too popular. Everyone else pays attention to them, so their use as a technical tool is diluted. I prefer to look for signals no one else is following.

But the death cross on silver's chart is a clear bearish sign... And no one noticed it. That makes me want to pay attention.

It has been three years since the last silver death cross. In September 2008, the 50-DMA crossed below the 200-DMA... And the price of silver dropped 30% in the next two months.

If we get the same sort of action this time around, the price of silver could fall as low as $25 per ounce by the end of the year.
...
http://www.growthstockwire.com/2885/...ign-for-Silver



I read this and thought about how disconnected it is from the physical demand for silver. If the paper markets want to give the physical bullion market a sale, I'm all for it.
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Old 11-11-2011, 11:38 AM   #2
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Technical analysis...

I know two guys who swear by it. But, NO ONE has ever shown me the profits. I do know that a lot of the 'bots trade technicals, and since they are so fast, they can front-run the humans.

You new lil ol thread on silver's death cross may bring on some people who know T.A. better than I do!
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Old 11-11-2011, 12:30 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
If the paper markets want to give the physical bullion market a sale, I'm all for it.
Yep, my brother-in-law bought a bunch at $35 months ago as a long term safe haven, but was strangely afraid that it would drop. I just smiled. Oh, happy day if it does. Think of it as an already tightly stretched slingshot being pulled back even further.

He called this morning, excited that it was almost back to $35 today. I said, "That's not good news. Good news is if it goes down to $25 for a time. Long term, remember? Always long term."
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Old 11-11-2011, 02:37 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post:
He called this morning, excited that it was almost back to $35 today. I said, "That's not good news. Good news is if it goes down to $25 for a time. Long term, remember? Always long term."
ROFL, and he probably has no clue why you are rooting for it to drop. It's all good, just remember to buy on the dips. And make sure to tell your brother-in-law, to buy more on the drops. We all like to see our investment grow in the long run, but short term I want lower prices to load up more.

IMO, I think we are going to see silver and gold follow the major market index's during the initial part of the crash, just like back in 2008/2009. Then when the market is on the dead cat bounce, the metals will surge and break away from the major index's as people start to realize we can't just print ourselves out of this mess.
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Old 11-11-2011, 03:59 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by white&yellow999 View Post:
ROFL, and he probably has no clue why you are rooting for it to drop.
LOL I think he gets it now, but only because I took it to the extremes.

"What if it suddenly dropped to .50 cents an ounce, and nobody seemed to want the smelly poopy worthless stuff?"

He tsked,"Oh well that's just stupid. Obviously, I'd stock my garage full of it and wait for it to g-....ahh, I get it now. OK, I won't think about it any more. "

"Yeah. .50 cents would just be peachy, but $25, now that's just scary, huh?"

Click.
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Old 11-11-2011, 04:54 PM   #6
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$25 oz is a realistic low, to wish for. There still remains 1/2 of the short contracts to cover after TPTB covered 1/2 during the recent, market closed, $26 dip.
With a supply shortage showing itself in many locations worldwide, surprisingly premiums have yet to advance.
For Christmas I'll take $25 oz with $.89 premium for 500 oz plus. Forget the tree and added tax. Forget the throw away gift exchange.
A feast for a day, smiles for all to share, and a pile of commodities.
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Old 11-12-2011, 10:14 AM   #7
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HAHAH! Nice.

Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post:
LOL I think he gets it now, but only because I took it to the extremes.

"What if it suddenly dropped to .50 cents an ounce, and nobody seemed to want the smelly poopy worthless stuff?"

He tsked,"Oh well that's just stupid. Obviously, I'd stock my garage full of it and wait for it to g-....ahh, I get it now. OK, I won't think about it any more. "

"Yeah. .50 cents would just be peachy, but $25, now that's just scary, huh?"

Click.
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Old 11-12-2011, 10:21 AM   #8
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When the crash to 26$ happened in September, the market did EXACTLY what I thought would occur at 26$...MASSIVE immediate support.

My reasoning was this - last year at the end of 2010, the price ran up to 33$ and corrected to 26$ in January (2011).

I viewed that as a major support line that would be VERY, VERY difficult to break.

I was right. The moment silver hit 26$, it shot back up to 30$ so fast that most people don't even realize it dropped to 26$ in September.

A break to the south side (of 26$) will be INCREDIBLY difficult for the shorts to accomplish.

In fact, it's getting to the point where the strong longs are so well positioned and steadfast (with new strong longs popping up everywhere) that if the price of silver get ANYWHERE near 20$, the strong hands will gobble up the physical so fast that the COMEX controlling interests would be FOOLISH to push the paper spot price so low. They DON'T have the physical supplies to accomodate the physical delivery calls that would occur at that price.

If that happens, I highly doubt the Ponzi scheme would be able to remain intact.

It is now in the best interest of TPTB to allow silver to move up 70-80$ an ounce AND THEN SMACK IT BACK DOWN.

Dropping it to sub 25$ at this point is reckless FOR THEM. I hope they make that mistake. I really do.


Originally Posted by drAGonfly47 View Post:
$25 oz is a realistic low, to wish for. There still remains 1/2 of the short contracts to cover after TPTB covered 1/2 during the recent, market closed, $26 dip.
With a supply shortage showing itself in many locations worldwide, surprisingly premiums have yet to advance.
For Christmas I'll take $25 oz with $.89 premium for 500 oz plus. Forget the tree and added tax. Forget the throw away gift exchange.
A feast for a day, smiles for all to share, and a pile of commodities.
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